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September 2012 Obs/Discussion Thread


Isopycnic

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Judging from radar, it looks like Downeast is probably swimming again this morning.

Meanwhile, guess which one is me.

Clayton 1.3 SSW 0.12 NA NA NC Johnston

Clayton 2.9 W 0.28 NA NA NC Johnston

Clayton 3.3 NW 0.26 NA NA NC Wake

Clayton 5.7 SSE 0.03 NA NA NC Johnston

Sorry to hear that y'all missed out solak. It rained for 4 straight hours yesterday and I picked up 2 inches. Then the slow moving storms this morning dumped another 3.2 so since 1pm yesterday i've had 5.2 inches of rain. Add that to the 23 inches I had during July and August and its really been a wet 10 week period for me.

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Ghost of Issac starting to open up into a shear axis and may be setting up residence in the Southern Apps, North Georgia, Alabama through Wednesday. Look for some scattered areas where the rain piles up.

6z GFS shows the remnants of Isaac trying to redevelop again in the GOM. Euro has been hinting at that for quite a while.

http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M

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I figured you did well on the other side of the chain. Shower after shower kept developing literally just miles north of me and tracked NE. Got zip IMBY..

Amazing the huge differences with only a few miles between. Usually the rain does the Union county split, fortunately not this time.

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Ghost of Issac starting to open up into a shear axis and may be setting up residence in the Southern Apps, North Georgia, Alabama through Wednesday. Look for some scattered areas where the rain piles up.

We have likely pops here for the next 3 periods (60 to 70%) but given the track record of the last several months here of getting screwed every time there are high to likely pops, I'll believe it when I see it. The models are pretty bullish on precip amounts here though. Both the 12z nam and 06z gfs have a 4 plus bullseye (gfs shows 5.5 inches here which of course I have serious doubts) right over me over the next 72 to 96 hours or so...starting in earnest tomorrow night.

Sort of strange they both have that bullseye and even more strange they agree on the bullseye virtually in the exact same spot..literally just a few miles apart. Doesn't mean they are right though and are probably overdone.

Euro also shows a good coverage of rainfall (generally 1 to 2 inches) over most areas. That is likely a lot more reasonable but some areas will pick up more due to training, high pws, and so forth.

I would love that much, obviously but I'd be happy with an inch or two...unless of course a lot more falls not that far away, which is par for the course :arrowhead:

So we'll see.

06zgfsday1-5120.gif

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Evaporators in full force along the Ala. line. The rain that looks like it would make it here, is still where it was last night. I have sunshine and drought just pouring down. T

At this rate it will get here in about 2 months. It looks like the rain hasn't moved at all since I went to bed last night. Is it just me, or does it seem like Alabama gets more rain than Georgia ?

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At this rate it will get here in about 2 months. It looks like the rain hasn't moved at all since I went to bed last night. Is it just me, or does it seem like Alabama gets more rain than Georgia ?

Well, it was worth the wait. Thanks, Isaac, and the moles. 1/2 inch in 5 minutes and the main batch still to come :) Nice!

But, yeah, Ala got more because they were closer to the spin, and the Ga./S.C. line, and down to Metalic, got it because they were far enough away, lol. No worries, though, mega sleet/snow for you and me come winter. And, as long as the spin spins, we'll get some rain here...through tomorrow, anyway. T

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It's still dry here with a band of rain to the west moving northeast and making no progress towards me. Other showers and storms gave areas less than 10 miles to my southeast and east close to 1 inch but we have only had a sprinkle at best. Anything that even looks like it may come our way quickly falls apart.

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Another interesting day. Storms all around me so I expect to get something eventually. It's hard to predict even 30 minutes ahead because the storms are pulsing so quickly.

In the process of getting some very heavy rain. 4.63" rain rate. Already rapidly approach an inch from this one storm.

EDIT: Rain rate now 6.33"

EDIT" Peaked at 7.11" Still raining hard. Just passed 1.5"

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This is getting ridiculous now. Yet another good batch of rain gets close giving places with 1-2 miles getting a great rain while almost nothing falls here. And just as before, anything coming my way is quickly dying. I know the models, and our NWS offices are saying we get a lot of rain over the GSP cwa tomorrow and Wednesday but I just dont see it based on the radar back across northern GA and Al.

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This is getting ridiculous now. Yet another good batch of rain gets close giving places with 1-2 miles getting a great rain while almost nothing falls here. And just as before, anything coming my way is quickly dying. I know the models, and our NWS offices are saying we get a lot of rain over the GSP cwa tomorrow and Wednesday but I just dont see it based on the radar back across northern GA and Al.

That's terrible. Were flooding here... 2+" already and were just getting started.

It gully washed with the sun out in full....that kind of day here. Very, very tropical like outside. I dont want to flood that bad.....:o

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Looks like the Charlotte metro about to get nailed in about an hour if that big storm holds together. That storm has to be dropping a quick 1-2 inches of rain at least in central York county. And more forming back to the SW of these storms that will probably go over the same area.

I hope so. We've gotten no more than a few minute of light rain for the past week, while places a few miles in every direction have received the big downpours.

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That's a crazy amount, Isopycnic!

We just had a small storm (compared to some of the other posts recently) come in, stall, and backbuild a little, and picked up 1.15" in an hour! This was a solo storm well ahead of that once solid band of showers and storms that crossed the Piedmont. Happy camper here - no water hose dragging tomorrow!!! :thumbsup:

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