September 2012 Obs/Discussion Thread

[Solak]

I can't remember when the last time I saw a chance of rain every day for the next 7 days was, but since even the wild honeysuckle was wilting today, you know it's been dry! I'll take all those 20%, 30% and 40% chances in the long range forecast.

[Marion_NC_WX]

Looking at the morning model runs my confidence is starting to grow that many of the same areas that received significant rainfall over a week ago could get another round of heavy rain...

[Lookout]

Yep, a low in the gulf always makes me happy, even one doing a floopy loop like Goofy has this one doing, lol. As long as it finds Ga. with some rain, all is well And if it cools things off too....it is way to danged hot today!! I want to be shed of summer so badly....but I've still got 20+ tomatoes on the vines that need to ripen up. Still, I think 70's would do it. 80's is just unnecessary T

I sure would love for the 06z gfs to be right with so much rain here because it's really needed. For example, ATL is 10 inches in the hole right now. However, I just can't get too excited about the prospects since it seems like there has been quite a few systems where models show good to great totals, only to get a fraction of it...at least here. (OTOH when not much is expected, I do better...go figure).

5 day totals from hpc look good but they busted bad here a few times. They even have the max right over me/athens as the have before and it didn't pan out...not even close.

We'll see though but I'm not getting my hopes up too high.

[mackerel_sky]

GSP actually forcasting 1-2 inches of rain in the piedmont ,and more in the mtns.for Mon-Tues time frame,hopefully it pans out!

[deltadog03]

Wonderful....Looks like the central GA rain shield is still up....I don't like the trends, at all.....Not going to like another system where we could get dry slotted again....

[buckeyefan1]

Wonderful....Looks like the central GA rain shield is still up....I don't like the trends, at all.....Not going to like another system where we could get dry slotted again....

Agree

[calculus1]

Some severe storms passing through the NC foothills and piedmont. I've already picked up over 2/3 inch of rain. Crazy lightning struck across the street and terrified my daughter. That was a close one!

[WilkesboroDude]

Grandfather Mountain shared Beyond The Sunrise's photo.

Great photo of the Mountain taken by Jim Ruff!

Grandfather Mountain Sunset - Last night, taken from Blowing Rock, NC

[Isopycnic]

thunder... rain = nice morning!

[Solak]

Woke up to a thunderstorm at 4:30 this morning... picked up .73"

[NEGa]

nice, cool rainy saturday morning although looks like the hpc rainfall maps have lowered the amounts around here yet again i am with lookout - forecasting a ton of rain and we usually get a lot less. forecasting a little and we get a ton lol

[dsaur]

I sure would love for the 06z gfs to be right with so much rain here because it's really needed. For example, ATL is 10 inches in the hole right now. However, I just can't get too excited about the prospects since it seems like there has been quite a few systems where models show good to great totals, only to get a fraction of it...at least here. (OTOH when not much is expected, I do better...go figure).

5 day totals from hpc look good but they busted bad here a few times. They even have the max right over me/athens as the have before and it didn't pan out...not even close.

We'll see though but I'm not getting my hopes up too high.

Yep, I don't have much hope for this map being right anywhere near me. So far all I've had the last two days is an 80% chance of cloudy Somehow just looking like rain isn't enough anymore. Actual drops of moisture need to fall from the sky for it to count! And even the clouds don't keep it from being too danged hot! So far fall sucks....too dry, too hot. If this is a taste of winter, we are in deep ship, lol.

Sure there is a lot of rain out west of here, but I've seen it do the "split apart and miss Tony" dance too many times to count those unhatched chickens. When I have an inch in the bucket, I'll recant T

[andyhb]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

519 PM EDT SAT SEP 29 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTH CENTRAL CHEROKEE COUNTY IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...

NORTHWESTERN CHESTER COUNTY IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...

NORTHEASTERN UNION COUNTY IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...

SOUTHWESTERN YORK COUNTY IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 600 PM EDT

* AT 519 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS STORM WAS

LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HICKORY GROVE...OR 13 MILES SOUTHEAST

OF GAFFNEY...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...

LOCKHART.

LOWRYS AND MCCONNELLS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS TORNADO WARNING REPLACES THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING THAT

WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME AREA.

A TORNADO IS LIKELY DEVELOPING. SEEK SHELTER IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON

THE LOWEST LEVEL OF A HOUSE OR OFFICE BUILDING. PLACE AS MANY FLOORS

AND WALLS BETWEEN YOU AND THE OUTSIDE AS POSSIBLE.

[andyhb]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC

533 PM EDT SAT SEP 29 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA

SOUTHERN MOORE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA

RICHMOND COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 600 PM EDT

* AT 530 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

TORNADO OVER PEKIN...OR 10 MILES SOUTH OF TROY...MOVING EAST AT 25

MPH. QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH ARE

ALSO LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

NORMAN...

DERBY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A

STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...VEHICLE OR

OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS

AVAILABLE LIE DOWN IN A LOW LYING AREA. PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING

DEBRIS.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO YOUR

LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

[andyhb]

I think we may have tornado/at the very least a strong low level meso coming into Chester, SC.

[Met1985]

I think we may have tornado/at the very least a strong low level meso coming into Chester, SC.

Ya Andy that cells looks pretty strong. It does have a sever thunderstorm warning with it.

[calculus1]

Another 0.59 inch of rain today after 0.74 inch yesterday. It's a nice end to September as it brings my monthly total to just under 5.5 inches.

[isohume]

I see GSP is mentioning a good bit of rain,but after the bust they had with the last event,its hard to get too excited.a long stretch of rainy days,and some damming would be great!

Lol

[deltadog03]

woooohooooo.... another upcoming crappy storm for most of the region. Ya, people are going to see rain and storms, but for those of us who REALLY need the rain....its a whatever storm...

[mackerel_sky]

The bust was them calling for a WIDESPREAD 2-4 inches! A Few flood warnings and 80% of the area seeing way less than an inch ,was a big bust in my book.

Lol

[isohume]

The bust was them calling for a WIDESPREAD 2-4 inches! A Few flood warnings and 80% of the area seeing way less than an inch ,was a big bust in my book.

Uh, that's not storm total precip I showed. The heaver rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches was always for the mtns. The piedmont was 1-2 inches. I'd say it panned out very well.

Add these two maps together to get the storm total precip.

[jshetley]

We did end up with right at 1 inch here out of that event so it wasnt a bust for my area. I think around an inch is what we can expect outside of the mountains with this system too.

[calculus1]

Uh, that's not storm total precip I showed. The heaver rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches was always for the mtns. The piedmont was 1-2 inches. I'd say it panned out very well.

Add these two maps together to get the storm total precip.

I thought your forecast panned out quite well. If anything, you under-forecasted (is that a word?) rain totals for the WNC piedmont. I had 3.59 inches of rain from that system here IMBY in Hickory, NC.

I think that being a professional meteorologist is similar to being a professional referee. Nobody appreciates what you guys actually do until you're not there to provide the service. Keep up the good work. I'll keep reading the discos, even though I don't yet fully understand all the terms you guys use. (By the way, the glossary is a real nice touch on your site. It helps out a ton, at times.)

[mackerel_sky]

The bigger bust is that we are discussing this on Sat night!lol!! Currently 71 outside

[isohume]

I thought your forecast panned out quite well. If anything, you under-forecasted (is that a word?) rain totals for the WNC piedmont. I had 3.59 inches of rain from that system here IMBY in Hickory, NC.

I think that being a professional meteorologist is similar to being a professional referee. Nobody appreciates what you guys actually do until you're not there to provide the service. Keep up the good work. I'll keep reading the discos, even though I don't yet fully understand all the terms you guys use. (By the way, the glossary is a real nice touch on your site. It helps out a ton, at times.)

Haha...good analogy.

And like refs we get criticized all the time. We don't mind being criticized when we're clearly wrong, but being criticized when we're clearly right is a bit much.

[Met1985]

Beautiful fall day out today. Currently sitting at 58 chilly degrees. We have had rain on and off all day. Cannot wait for next weekend though when things get interesting.

[mackerel_sky]

There was a afd 2 days before the "big" event that said widespread 2-4 inches ,with higher amounts in the mtns.if there's a way to pull up old discussions?let's look

Haha...good analogy.

And like refs we get criticized all the time. We don't mind being criticized when we're clearly wrong, but being criticized when we're clearly right is a bit much.

[isohume]

There was a afd 2 days before the "big" event that said widespread 2-4 inches ,with higher amounts in the mtns.if there's a way to pull up old discussions?let's look

Omg, really? What a bust then. Strange, I don't recall putting out a flood watch for the non/mtns.

[jburns]

Haha...good analogy.

And like refs we get criticized all the time. We don't mind being criticized when we're clearly wrong, but being criticized when we're clearly right is a bit much.

Nah. Your not as important. Your bad calls don't change the outcome.

[isohume]

There was a afd 2 days before the "big" event that said widespread 2-4 inches ,with higher amounts in the mtns.if there's a way to pull up old discussions?let's look

Just for gaggles I looked up the AFDs going back 4 days from the event. Please tell me where any of them say widespread 2-4 inches outside the mtns.

2012-09-14 10:18 UTC

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 250 AM FRIDAY...QUASI/ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA

SAT AND SUN WITH ENOUGH OF A S/W KINK TO PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO

THE REGION SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE

MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN

WEAK AND N/LY. SCT -SHRA/TSTMS WILL THUS BE LIMITED TO THE NC MTNS SAT

EVENING. EXPECT THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY TO STALL OUT OVER THE CWFA SAT

NIGHT AND BECOME A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SCT AFTERNOON CONVECTION

SUN. MEANWHILE...A H92-H85 UPSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP GENERATE MTN

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SUN AFTERNOON AS WELL. TOOK POPS DOWN TO SLIGHT

OVERNIGHT SAT WITH LIMITED FORCING AND LOW/END DEEP MOISTURE. THERE

IS VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHEAR/CAPE PRESENT ON THE MODEL

SOUNDINGS FOR BOTH SAT AND SUN...HOWEVER AREAS OF DIFFERENTIAL

HEATING COULD ENCHANCE THE SBCAPE AND SPAWN A FEW/SCT GENERAL TSTMS

LATE SAT AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND THEN ALL AREAS SUN

AFTERNOON WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SEEING TSTMS. EXPECT TEMPS RIGHT

AROUND NORMAL SAT AND PERHAPS A COUPLE DGREES COOLER ON SUN WITH

COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING ACROSS

THE REGION.

2012-09-14 18:51 UTC

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE IT IS GOING TO RAIN EARLY NEXT

WEEK...PERHAPS A LOT. HPC HOLDS A PREFERENCE FOR THE ECMWF WITH

REGARD TO A SYSTEM THAT SHOULD AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST. THE GFS IS

TRENDING TOWARD THE OLD ECMWF SOLUTION AND WAS GENERALLY FOLLOWED

FOR THE DETAILS OF THE FCST. A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AT THE START

OF THE PERIOD WILL START TO BUCKLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A

SHORT WAVE MOVES OVER THE SRN PLAINS. AS THIS HAPPENS...SURFACE HIGH

PRESSURE WILL SLIP OFF THE EAST COAST AND ALLOW MOISTURE TO RETURN

FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. MOUNTAIN CONVECTION

EARLY SATURDAY EVENING WILL GRADUALLY WANE AND MORPH INTO A LOW END

SHOWER THREAT FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW

DEVELOPS ON THE E SIDE OF THE MTNS. ON SUNDAY...THIS FLOW WILL

CONTINUE AND HELP TO CONTRIBUTE TO A CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE

ENTIRE FCST AREA BY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WERE KEPT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE

DURING THE LATE HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

CHANGES WILL HAPPEN SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES THE

GULF AND HELPS TO ORGANIZE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NW GULF. THIS IS

SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO A TYPICAL COOL SEASON DEVELOPMENT WITH

CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NW GULF AND A LOW MOVING UP THE EAST SIDE OF

THE MTNS. THE GULF WILL BE WIDE OPEN FOR BUSINESS BY MONDAY MORNING

WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. IT WILL

EVENTUALLY RAIN...THE QUESTION IS WHEN WILL IT START AND HOW MUCH

WILL FALL. THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX FROM THE GULF AND

ARRIVAL OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH AN AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE TO HELP

FORCE PRECIP DEVELOPMENT SUGGESTS THAT PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS

THE REGION DURING THE DAYTIME PERIOD. THUS...PRECIP CHANCES WILL

RAMP UP TO CATEGORICAL OVER THE MTNS AND LIKELY E OF THE BLUE RIDGE

BY SUNSET MONDAY...AND KEPT THAT WAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. FORCING

AND RESPONSE MAXIMIZE MONDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE MAIN SURFACE

LOW...WHICH SHOULD PASS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A

NON-ZERO SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF THE

LOW MOVES THROUGH ACCORDING TO THIS PLAN...AS CAPE AND SHEAR SHOULD

BE JUST ENOUGH TO ORGANIZE SOME STORMS OVER THE PIEDMONT. THE LARGER

CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY RAIN MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS MIGHT BE A LITTLE

OVERDONE WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF ITS PRECIP AMT OWING TO AFFECTS OF A

LOW LEVEL PV ANOMALY THAT ERUPTS OVER N GEORGIA MONDAY AFTERNOON.

HOWEVER...THERE ARE SIGNS THAT IT MIGHT NOT BE TOO FAR OFF. A 3 STD

DEVIATION V-WIND ANOMALY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS BY 00Z

TUESDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE STRONG NWD MOISTURE TRANSPORT...YET

THE PRECIPITABLE WATER ANOMALY IS NOT YET FCST TO BE THAT STRONG.

THIS WILL BE FURTHER EVALUATED OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LOW SHOULD PASS

BY TUESDAY MORNING AND THEREAFTER THE PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE

SW. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CLIMO FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

2012-09-15 08:16 UTC

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE IT IS GOING TO RAIN EARLY NEXT

WEEK...PERHAPS A LOT. HPC HOLDS A PREFERENCE FOR THE ECMWF WITH

REGARD TO A SYSTEM THAT SHOULD AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST. THE GFS IS

TRENDING TOWARD THE OLD ECMWF SOLUTION AND WAS GENERALLY FOLLOWED

FOR THE DETAILS OF THE FCST. A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AT THE START

OF THE PERIOD WILL START TO BUCKLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A

SHORT WAVE MOVES OVER THE SRN PLAINS. AS THIS HAPPENS...SURFACE HIGH

PRESSURE WILL SLIP OFF THE EAST COAST AND ALLOW MOISTURE TO RETURN

FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. MOUNTAIN CONVECTION

EARLY SATURDAY EVENING WILL GRADUALLY WANE AND MORPH INTO A LOW END

SHOWER THREAT FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW

DEVELOPS ON THE E SIDE OF THE MTNS. ON SUNDAY...THIS FLOW WILL

CONTINUE AND HELP TO CONTRIBUTE TO A CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE

ENTIRE FCST AREA BY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WERE KEPT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE

DURING THE LATE HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

CHANGES WILL HAPPEN SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES THE

GULF AND HELPS TO ORGANIZE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NW GULF. THIS IS

SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO A TYPICAL COOL SEASON DEVELOPMENT WITH

CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NW GULF AND A LOW MOVING UP THE EAST SIDE OF

THE MTNS. THE GULF WILL BE WIDE OPEN FOR BUSINESS BY MONDAY MORNING

WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. IT WILL

EVENTUALLY RAIN...THE QUESTION IS WHEN WILL IT START AND HOW MUCH

WILL FALL. THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX FROM THE GULF AND

ARRIVAL OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH AN AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE TO HELP

FORCE PRECIP DEVELOPMENT SUGGESTS THAT PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS

THE REGION DURING THE DAYTIME PERIOD. THUS...PRECIP CHANCES WILL

RAMP UP TO CATEGORICAL OVER THE MTNS AND LIKELY E OF THE BLUE RIDGE

BY SUNSET MONDAY...AND KEPT THAT WAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. FORCING

AND RESPONSE MAXIMIZE MONDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE MAIN SURFACE

LOW...WHICH SHOULD PASS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A

NON-ZERO SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF THE

LOW MOVES THROUGH ACCORDING TO THIS PLAN...AS CAPE AND SHEAR SHOULD

BE JUST ENOUGH TO ORGANIZE SOME STORMS OVER THE PIEDMONT. THE LARGER

CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY RAIN MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS MIGHT BE A LITTLE

OVERDONE WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF ITS PRECIP AMT OWING TO AFFECTS OF A

LOW LEVEL PV ANOMALY THAT ERUPTS OVER N GEORGIA MONDAY AFTERNOON.

HOWEVER...THERE ARE SIGNS THAT IT MIGHT NOT BE TOO FAR OFF. A 3 STD

DEVIATION V-WIND ANOMALY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS BY 00Z

TUESDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE STRONG NWD MOISTURE TRANSPORT...YET

THE PRECIPITABLE WATER ANOMALY IS NOT YET FCST TO BE THAT STRONG.

THIS WILL BE FURTHER EVALUATED OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LOW SHOULD PASS

BY TUESDAY MORNING AND THEREAFTER THE PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE

SW. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CLIMO FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

2012-09-15 18:50 UTC

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...WE ARE STILL EXPECTING A RAIN EVENT ACROSS

THE WESTERN CAROLINAS EARLY IN THE WEEK. CHANGES WILL ALREADY BE

UNDERWAY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AT 00Z MONDAY...WITH THE MAIN

SHORT WAVE STILL OUT OVER THE SRN PLAINS BEGINNING TO INDUCE

CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE

OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THE FLOW AROUND THE

HIGH CENTER WILL HELP TO STRENGTHEN THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL

MOIST UPSLOPE. HAVE KEPT A FAIRLY HIGH CHANCE OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT

RELATIVE TO WHAT THE MODELS SUGGEST...FEELING THAT A SHOWER COULD

BREAK OUT AT ANY TIME WITH IMPROVING FORCING AND MOISTURE OVERNIGHT.

THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE WILL HAVE THE BEST

CHANCE...SO A LIKELY POP WAS KEPT THERE.

THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO GO DOWNHILL WITH ALL SIGNS POINTING

TO A RAIN EVENT DEVELOPING THROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE

WILL STREAM NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF AND UPPER FORCING WILL GRADUALLY

STRENGTHEN AS THE SHORT WAVE COMES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND THE

SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKIEST

ON MONDAY AS THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF IN SITU COLD AIR DAMMING OVER

THE NC FOOTHILLS AND NW PIEDMONT MAINLY...SO HIGH TEMPS WERE KNOCKED

DOWN A FEW DEGREES THERE. AN INTERESTING TREND SEEN THE GFS AND

ECMWF HAS BEEN TO KEEP THE MAIN LOW CENTER MOVING TO THE WEST OF THE

SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE GFS HAS THE FOCUS OF THE BEST UPPER

FORCING MOVING UP THE TN VALLEY AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. THIS TREND

WILL NOT CHANGE THE EXPECTATION OF A CATEGORICAL PRECIP CHANCE

SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY... AND

HEAVY RAIN WOULD STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MTNS AND ESPECIALLY NEAR

THE BLUE RIDGE. OVERALL THOUGH...QPF HAS BEEN REDUCED A BIT. NOT

ONLY THAT...BUT THE TIMING OF THE MAIN LOW PASSAGE IS A BIT

LATER...INTO TUESDAY. WHAT THIS TREND SUGGESTS IS LESS OF A FLOODING

THREAT AND MORE OF A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT.

THE NEW GFS HAS A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FCST AREA DURING THE

AFTERNOON. EAST OF THE FRONT...THE GFS DEVELOPS A PLUME OF CAPE

AROUND 1500 J/KG WITH 150-250 SRH AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR TO

MAKE ONE TAKE NOTICE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS

AND PERHAPS SUPERCELLS. THIS TREND IS INTERESTING AND SHOULD BE

MONITORED. FOR NOW...THE PRECIP CHANCES WERE EXTENDED A BIT LATER

INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. SOME WRAPAROUND NW FLOW UPSLOPE

SHOWERS SHOULD BE EXPECTED OVER THE MTNS THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

2012-09-16 07:53 UTC

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...A VERY DYNAMICAL AND MOIST SYSTEM WILL

CONTINUE WORKING IT/S WAY TOWARD THE CWFA EARLY MON. WEAK LLVL

RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE EARLY MON WHILE A GOM LOW

BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED AND PUSHES NE INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND

EVENTUALLY THE TN VALLEY. VERY HIGH AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL BE

AVAIL WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH GOM MOISTURE FLUX EAST OF THE LOW

MAXIMIZED.

THE 00Z NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS WITH UPSLOPE

SHOWERS EARLY MON...BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IS HAD TO KEEP WITH THE

LIKELY POPS...YET LOW QPF...BEFORE 18Z. THINGS REALLY GET GOING MON

AFTERNOON AS MLVL Q/VECT CONVG INCREASES ADDING A DYNAMICAL LIFT

ENHANCEMENT CREATING COUPLED OMEGA IN NEARLY SATURATED COLUMN. EXPECT

MODERATE TO HIGH RAINFALL RATES MON AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT

ACROSS THE FAVORED SE/RN UPSLOPE REGIONS...WITH SOME LOCAL AREAS

POSSIBLY DEVELOPING HYDRO CONCERNS BY MON EVENING.

THE SYSTEM SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE CWFA DURING THE DAY TUE AND

INCREASES THE CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE ORGANIZED TSTMS

DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE RELATIVELY COOL BNDRY

LAYER...SBCAPE VALUES WILL BE ON THE LOW END...HOWEVER A TRIPLE

POINT LOW WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH AMOUNTS 0-3 KM HELICITY AND DEEP

LAYERED SHEAR WILL ALSO BE HIGH.

EVEN WITH GOOD S/LY FLOW...MAX TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE IN OPAQUE CLOUD

COVER. LIKELY U70S NON/MTNS AND AROUND 70 MTN VALLEYS BOTH MON AND

TUE. MINS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MON NIGHT...THEN ABOUT

5 DEGREES F BELOW NORMAL TUE NIGHT AS A NEW AIRMASS MIXES IN AND

SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR.

2012-09-16 19:03 UTC

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY...THE MODEL TREND THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE

CONTINUES TO MOVE THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW TO THE WEST OF THE SPINE

OF THE APPALACHIANS...WITH THE BEST FORCING MOVING OVER THE

SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. AT THE START

OF THE SHORT RANGE...EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS

ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THE RELATIVELY HIGH POP IN THE FCST MIGHT BE

INDICATIVE OF MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY THAN MIGHT ACTUALLY BE PRESENT AT

SUNSET...HOWEVER...THINK THE OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF FOLKS OVER THE

FOOTHILLS AND MTNS WILL GET RAIN IN THE EVENING. KEPT THE PRECIP

CHANCE LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT UNTIL THE FORCING

STRENGTHENS LATER MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN

LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING

THROUGH TUESDAY MIDDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS IN RESPONSE TO

THE PASSAGE OF A 925-850MB LOW. THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE OF

SIGNIFICANT PRECIP THAT WILL CAUSE A SIGNIFICANT RISE IN THE CREEKS

AND RIVERS OVER THE USUAL SPOTS...PARTICULARLY THE UPPER REACHES OF

THE FRENCH BROAD BASIN. BECAUSE WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH A LATE

THIRD PERIOD THREAT...PREFER TO HOLD OFF WITH ISSUING ANY FLOOD

WATCHES AT THIS TIME. THE MAIN FORCING WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY IN

THE DAY FOLLOWED BY THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR

EARLY PART OF THE EVENING. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A PLUME

OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR OVER THE PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS

AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. THE SPC HAS THE EASTERN ZONES IN THE DAY3

SLIGHT RISK AND THIS LOOKS GOOD...EVEN AS THE TREND IN THE MODELS

MIGHT BE TO PUT THE BETTER CHANCES EAST OF SALISBURY...CHARLOTTE...

AND GREENWOOD. WILL NEED TO RETAIN A HIGHER POP INTO TUESDAY EVENING

AS THE MODELS ALSO HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY A FEW

HOURS. WE SHOULD TRANSITION TO A BRIEF NW FLOW SHOWER CHANCE ON THE

TN BORDER LATER TUESDAY NIGHT POST FRONTAL. A WAVE MAY MOVE ALONG

THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS

THE EASTERN ZONES. SO...WILL RETAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE ON THE EASTERN

FRINGE INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE DAY.

2012-09-17 07:51 UTC

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AN ACTIVE AND RAINY PERIOD IS IN STORE OVER THE NEAR TERM AS A

DYNAMICAL SYSTEM IS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED ACROSS THE NR/RN GOM. IR

IMAGERY IS SHOWING A BAROCLINIC LEAF AND A STRONG UPPER LOW ACROSS

ERN TX. THIS SYSTEM WILL GET PULLED NE BY A L/W TROF OVER THE NEXT

24-48 HRS AND AFFECT THE CWFA WILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF RAINFALL...ESP

ACROSS THE ERN FACING ESCARPMENT SLOPES. THE CURRENT INSITU WEDGE

SHOULD HOLD ON FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND KEEP THINGS FAIRLY STABLE.

THE MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND GENERATING

THE BEST SBCAPE AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE THREAT ACROSS THE SW/RN ZONES

LATER TODAY. THIS COULD BECOME PROBLEMATIC HYDRO/WISE AS FAR AS

HEAVY PCPN DEVELOPING IN A MOIST AND DYNAMICALLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT.

THE BEST COMBO OF ISENT AND MECHANICAL LIFT WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN

FACING ESCARPMENT REGION OF THE WRN CWFA. PWAT ANOMALIES SHOW THE

COLUMN AT 1-2 SDEV ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THAT AREA LATE THIS

AFTERNOON AND SPREADING NW THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO

BE STRONG KINEMATICS SETTING UP AS THE SFC LOW MOVES UP THE TN RIVER

VALLEY. THE LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING A 40-50 KT H85 JET MOSTLY

PERPENDICULAR TO THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...AND THIS...ALONG WITH

THE CONVECTIVE THREAT COULD BE THE DIFFERENCE BTW SOME AREAS

RECEIVING 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN OR 3-4 INCHES...OR PERHAPS MORE. THE

RECENT RELATIVELY DRY CONDS WILL MAKE FOR HIGH FFG NUMBERS...BUT

BELIEVE ENOUGH OF A SHORT TERM THREAT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGH

PCPN OVER A SHORT TIME WARRANTS THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

AREAS NORTH OF THE SRN ESCARPMENT UP THROUGH THE NRN NC MTNS WILL

ALSO BE INCLUDED IN THE WATCH AS ENOUGH OF A UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND

STRONG FORCING WILL BE PRESENT THERE AS WELL. MANY AREAS OUTSIDE THE

MTNS CAN EXPECT A GOOD 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL BTW LATE THIS

AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

AT 230 AM EDT MONDAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL WEAKEN AND

MOVE OUT OF AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE OH AND TN VALLEYS ON

THURSDAY...CROSSING OUR AREA LATE IN THE DAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL

APPROACH FROM THE SW ON TUESDAY NIGHT...CROSSING OUR AREA ON

WEDNESDAY. A THIRDS SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FORM THE SW ON WEDNESDAY

NIGHT.

BY TUESDAY MORNING...THE BEST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AHEAD OF AN

APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED NORTH AND EAST OF THE

AREA. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL STILL BE PRESENT

IN THE MORNING...BEFORE WEAKENING AND VEERING SW TO BECOME PARALLEL

TO THE BLUE RIDGE. HEAVY RAINFAL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EARLY IN

THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT. ALTHOUGH THE

BEST CAPE WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA...THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT WILL

SEE CAPAE INCREASE TO SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG AROUND MIDDAY. HELICITY

OVER THE SAME AREA WILL BE BEST IN THE EARLY MORNING...BUT MODERATE

HELICITY WILL STILL BE PRESENT AT MIDDAY...BEFORE DECREASING IN THE

AFTERNOON. A WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST TUESDAY BETWEEN

DECREASING HELICITY AND INCREASING CAPE...TERMINATING WITH THE

DECREASE IN BOTH FIELDS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL NOT BE UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT

SLOWS DOWN. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE A CHANCE OF

PRECIPITATION CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A

SURFACE WAVE RIDES NORTHEAST UP THE FRONT...WHILE THE WEAKER NAM

WAVE FAILS TO WRAP MOISTURE BACK AROUND TO OUR AREA. FOR NOW...THE

FORECAST WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF BY MIDDAY

WEDNESDAY...WITH CLOUD COVER LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

2012-09-17 18:43 UTC

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

AS OF 230 PM...IN THE NEAR TERM...THE WEDGE FRONT HAS RETREATED

NORTHWARD INTO THE VERY NORTHERN UPSDTATE AND SHOULD DISSIPATE

COMPLETELY BY LATE AFTERNOON. SPC MESO PAGES SHOWS A VERY UNSTABLE

AIRMASS OVER SC AND EXPECT SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTORMS TO

DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

12Z MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED

FRONTAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. THE

FRONTAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF MEX TO THE S

OF LA AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE AND REACH UPSTATE SC TUE AFTERNOON.

THE GFS IS WEAKER AND ABOUT 3-6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE NAM.

NEVERTHELESS...AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD THE AREA WINDS WILL RESPOND

BY INCREASING AND BECOMING SE. WINDS APPROACHING 50KTS IN THE 850 MB

LAYER ARE FORECAST BY TUE MORNING. THIS WILL CREATE AN IDEAL

SITUATION FOR MECHANICAL LIFT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CAROLINAS

AND NE GA. THAT COMBINED WITH RATHER DEEP LAYER ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE

AND PWATS CLOSE TO 2 INCHES WILL GENERATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH

HEAVY RAIN A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY OVER THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS IN

THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA. IT LOOKS LIKE 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN IS

A GOOD BET WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO AROUND 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.

HENCE...WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ON TUE...THE FRONTAL WAVE AND THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL

CONTINEU TO PROVIDE LIFT...SO EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/TSTORMS TO

CONTINUE. SPC HAS OUTLOOKED BASICALLY ALL NON-MOUNTAIN AREAS FOR A

SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ON TUE. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE WITH THE

AMOUNT SHEAR/HELICITY FORECAST. THE LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE THE

AMOUNT OF INSTABILTY. SREF PROB OF CAPES GREATER THAN 1000J/KG IS

LESS THAN 30% ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...EVEN 500-1000J SHOULD BE

ENOUGH FOR PERHAPS SOME DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS AND ISOALTED TORNADOES

GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF LOWL LEVEL HELICITY INITIALLY AVAILABLE.

HOWEVER...IT MUST BE SAID THAT THERE IS NOT COMPLETE ALIGNMENT WITH

SHEAR/INSTABILUITY MAXES WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT. USED A

BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPS.