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September 2012 Obs/Discussion Thread


Isopycnic

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These cool, clear nights may be enough to get the leaves turning a bit early in the KATL area. It looks as if Sep. will turn out pretty dry. If Oct. continues the dryness and it has a lot of clear cool nights, it will set up for bright and early colors in Atlanta (good color in late Oct.). My data from past years suggests that it is best to have a dry Sep./Oct. for the brightest colors, at least in the ATL area. Last autumn, Atlanta had a really nice peak ~11/1 (earlier than average by ~one week). So, it will be a challenge to meet or beat it. Sep. and Oct. of 2011 were dry and Oct. had a good number of clear, cool nights.This all set the table for a nice 2011 peak.

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Still got down to 52 this am,thought it would be warmer.Anybody think we will get some good rains from this front and lows coming through this weekend and early next week?

Yes. GSP covers well the left behind southern stream wave and potential damming east of the Apps...

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NE STATES IS EXPECTED TO

EJECT ACROSS SRN CANADA ON MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO STRONG HEIGHT FALLS

OVER CENTRAL CANADA. HOWEVER...AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL

CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION. IN FACT...THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD

AGREEMENT IN CUTTING OFF A SRN STREAM LOW OVER AR/LA

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY. THIS KEEPS THE REGION UNDER A MOIST SOUTHERLY

FETCH. AN EJECTING SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE MAY BRING A GOOD SHOT OF

PCPN TO THE FA SOMETIME ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS

FOR QUITE SOME TIME. THE GFS FINALLY SEEMS TO BE COMING ON BOARD.

DOWNSTREAM CONFLUENCE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES SHOULD ALSO

MAINTAIN SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES MUCH OF THIS

TIME. WHAT THIS MEANS IS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION MAY BE

SETTING UP FOR A PERIOD OF RAIN AND COLD AIR DAMMING STARTING ON

MONDAY. THAT IS NOT WHAT WE ARE CURRENTLY ADVERTISING IN THE GRIDS

AND SOME CHANGES ARE LIKELY COMING TO THE EXTENDED LATER TODAY ONCE

THE NEW HPC GUIDANCE COMES IN.

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Yeah its looking like another active period may be starting for the Southeast as soon as tomorrow...maybe some convection for Tennessee and the Carolinas due to the front, it may hang around until Sunday.

Then early next week a southern stream system and who knows?...maybe some hybrid type of Gulf storm pumping the moisture northward.

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Yep, a low in the gulf always makes me happy, even one doing a floopy loop like Goofy has this one doing, lol. As long as it finds Ga. with some rain, all is well :) And if it cools things off too....it is way to danged hot today!! I want to be shed of summer so badly....but I've still got 20+ tomatoes on the vines that need to ripen up. Still, I think 70's would do it. 80's is just unnecessary :) T

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I see GSP is mentioning a good bit of rain,but after the bust they had with the last event,its hard to get too excited.a long stretch of rainy days,and some damming would be great!

Tough job they have because many areas got a dump of rain the last go around. I guess all you can say is that the potential is there for a good rain event....you're always going to have areas that miss out.

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