Isotherm Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 While North America has been torching and continues very warm, this global anomaly doesn't impress me in terms of warmth. Plenty of very cold areas scattered around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 All you have shown in this post is that the arctic is a lot warmer in the 2003-2011 time frame versus 1950-1995....we already know that. What this post does not answer is the question we asked regarding why would it make November much warmer in the CONUS recently while October has been colder and December has been colder. The same possible mechanisms that would make November warmer should also apply in December or October to enough of an extent to see a trend, but we do not see any matching trend. The AO is a good crude way to mention how much or how little of an arctic source we are receiving...using the correlation to temperatures tells us how much it matters to us. The correlation is very small in the summer since the PJ is further north and weaker in the summer, but in the winter it has much higher influence with a further south PJ and stronger. The AO correlation is roughly the same in October and November and stronger in December. I haven't seen any convincing evidence that the arctic is only influencing the warming in November but doesn't matter in the two months surrounding it. Maybe the more graphs that are posted....the more you will be convinced. I guess if you believe an inch of snow can make temps 20F cooler...maybe the small area of bare ground is raising temps 20F more and creating his theory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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