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Isaac Severe Weather Threat


andyhb

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Fairly strongly worded MD here, considering the increase in instability thanks to steeper lapse rates...

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1844

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0126 PM CDT FRI AUG 31 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR...WRN TN...ERN MO...SWRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 311826Z - 311930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE

MIDWEST CENTERED ALONG THE MS RIVER REGION OF MO/IL.

DISCUSSION...REMNANTS OF ISAAC ARE LIFTING NNEWD ACROSS SWRN MO WITH

THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION NEAR THE LAWRENCE/BARRY/STONE COUNTY

INTERSECTION. ONE PERSISTENT BAND OF STRONG CONVECTION IS

TRANSLATING ACROSS NERN AR INTO SERN MO WITHIN THE ERN SEMICIRCLE OF

ISAAC ALONG WRN FRINGE OF STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. LATEST OA

FIELDS SUGGEST A CORRIDOR OF SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7 C/KM

HAVE DEVELOPED FROM WRN TN...NWD INTO CNTRL IL. SFC TEMPERATURES

HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THIS REGION WITH READINGS WELL INTO

THE MID-UPPER 80S. THERE IS INCREASING CONCERN THAT THIS STEEPER

LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROVE FAVORABLE FOR ROBUST LOW-TOPPED

SUPERCELLS WITHIN A FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR ROTATING STORMS.

GIVEN THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION

CONDITIONS WARRANT A TORNADO WATCH.

..DARROW/CORFIDI.. 08/31/2012

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Forecast soundings get respectably unstable around here in the next day or two. Problem is shear...turning is good but speed shear is not quite as good this far east. Suppose something can't entirely be ruled out but somewhat better threat may stay farther west.

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 600

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

155 PM CDT FRI AUG 31 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHEAST ARKANSAS

SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS

FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY

SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI

FAR NORTHWEST TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 155 PM UNTIL

1000 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE

MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF

ALTON ILLINOIS TO 40 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF JONESBORO ARKANSAS.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH

OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO FORM LATER THIS AFTN IN RESPONSE TO

SFC HEATING ALONG CONFLUENCE BANDS IN ERN QUADRANT OF REMNANT

CIRCULATION OF ISAAC. AREA VWP DATA SHOW SUFFICIENT LOW LVL SHEAR

FOR LOW-LVL MESOS/POSSIBLE TORNADOES GIVEN RICH LOW-LVL MOISTURE/LOW

LCLS. WHILE LOW LVL SHEAR IN WW REGION IS SOMEWHAT WEAKER RELATIVE

TO YESTERDAY IN THE LWR MS VLY...LOW LVL LAPSE RATES ARE SOMEWHAT

STEEPER AND MAY YIELD A SIMILAR SVR THREAT.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE

WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO

500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 19035.

...CORFIDI

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TOG north of St. Louis.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO

345 PM CDT FRI AUG 31 2012

ILC061-149-312115-

/O.CON.KLSX.TO.W.0019.000000T0000Z-120831T2115Z/

PIKE IL-GREENE IL-

345 PM CDT FRI AUG 31 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN GREENE COUNTY IN

SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...AND SOUTHEASTERN PIKE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL

ILLINOIS UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

AT 327 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 1 MILE WEST OF

CARROLLTON...AND MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...CITY ROAD COMMIONSSER AT CARROLTON REPORTED A

CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...SIGNIFICANT HOUSE AND BUILDING DAMAGE POSSIBLE. MOBILE HOMES

COMPLETELY DESTROYED IF HIT. SOME TREES UPROOTED OR SNAPPED.

VEHICLES WILL LIKELY BE THROWN BY TORNADIC WINDS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

WHITE HALL...ROODHOUSE...HILLVIEW...PATTERSON...BARROW AND PEARL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN

INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID

WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE

CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY HIDE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE

TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST

LOUIS.

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3 products issued by NWS

Tornado Watch

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 601

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

350 PM CDT FRI AUG 31 2012

TORNADO WATCH 601 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR THE

FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

ILC017-019-021-025-029-035-039-041-049-079-107-115-125-129-137-

139-147-167-169-171-173-010300-

/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0601.120831T2050Z-120901T0300Z/

IL

. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CASS CHAMPAIGN CHRISTIAN

CLAY COLES CUMBERLAND

DE WITT DOUGLAS EFFINGHAM

JASPER LOGAN MACON

MASON MENARD MORGAN

MOULTRIE PIATT SANGAMON

SCHUYLER SCOTT SHELBY

$$

ATTN...WFO...ILX...

Sent from a iphone4S
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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO

356 PM CDT FRI AUG 31 2012

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON

.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.

..REMARKS..

0251 PM TORNADO 2 E FIELDON 39.11N 90.46W

08/31/2012 JERSEY IL LAW ENFORCEMENT

COUNTY SHERRIF RELAYED CROP DAMGE... ONE MINOR HOME DAMAGE AND TREES DAMAGED OFF ILLINOIS STATE HIGHWAY 16.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO

333 PM CDT FRI AUG 31 2012

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON

.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.

..REMARKS..

0330 PM TORNADO CARROLLTON 39.30N 90.41W

08/31/2012 GREENE IL COUNTY OFFICIAL

CITY ROAD COMMISSIONER OBSERVED DEBRIS IN THE AIR NEAR THE CITY CEMETARY... INCLUDING TIN. POSSIBLE TORNADO.

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DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1229 PM CDT FRI AUG 31 2012

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

..MIDDLE MS VALLEY/OZARKS

THE REMNANTS OF ISAAC ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER MO THROUGH SATURDAY. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL ACCOMPANY REMNANT ISAAC WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THE MOST PROBABLE/IMPACTFUL HAZARD. THAT SAID...SOME CONCERN FOR A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO AND/OR SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE MAY CONTINUE AS WELL ON SATURDAY. WHILE CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN PREVALENT...THERE ARE SOME GUIDANCE INDICATIONS THAT A BIT STRONGER DESTABILIZATION COULD DIURNALLY OCCUR ON THE S/SE PERIPHERY OF REMNANT ISAAC. GIVEN THIS...RELATIVELY STRONG/CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND AN AMPLE LOW-LEVEL SRH ENVIRONMENT /ALBEIT LIKELY A BIT WEAKER AS COMPARED TO FRIDAY/ MAY BE CONDUCIVE FOR AT LEAST TRANSIENT MINI-SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF A BRIEF TORNADO DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY

420 PM CDT FRI AUG 31 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHWESTERN BOLLINGER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

NORTHEASTERN WAYNE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 445 PM CDT.

* AT 416 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SHOOK...OR 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF WAPPAPELLO LAKE AREA...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA INCLUDE...

GRASSY AND CASCADE.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO

626 PM CDT FRI AUG 31 2012

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON

.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.

..REMARKS..

0532 PM TORNADO 3 NE O'FALLON 38.82N 90.67W

08/31/2012 ST. CHARLES MO TRAINED SPOTTER

FEW MEDIUM SIZED TREES SNAPPED OFF. SOCCER POSTS AT FORT ZUMWALT NORTH HIGH SCHOOL DESTROYED.

DAYCARE FACILITY PLAYGROUND EQUIPMENT BLOWN AROUND. PICKUP TRUCK WINDOW DAMAGED.

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We had a nice wall cloud with rotation pass just one county to my west - took these photographs as it moved through. Got a little worried for awhile - things didn't come quite enough together to drop a tornado.

Gave it a try

Only 0.08" of rain so far from the event.

post-77-0-57493700-1346477840_thumb.jpg

post-77-0-25523500-1346477826_thumb.jpg

post-77-0-45585000-1346477906_thumb.jpg

This is another photo close to St Louis from a cell earlier today

I did not take this one

post-77-0-93988500-1346477969_thumb.jpg

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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1205 AM CDT SAT SEP 01 2012

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

..PORTIONS OF LOWER THROUGH MID MS VALLEY AND WRN TN VALLEY

REMNANTS OF ISAAC CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND IS ENTRAINING DRYER AIR ALOFT INTO ITS SRN FLANK. THIS SUGGESTS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SFC HEATING AND GREATER INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP FROM AR...SRN MO INTO WRN TN SATURDAY. A VORT MAX IS FORECAST TO ROTATE AROUND THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW...AND STORMS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP WITHIN EVOLVING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BAND FROM PARTS OF AR INTO SERN MO AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES. MODELS MAINTAIN A 40 KT SWLY LLJ ALONG SERN FLANK OF THE CIRCULATION WHERE 0-2 KM SHEAR /ALTHOUGH LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS/ MAY BE MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR A THREAT FOR LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING GUSTS MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY WHERE SBCAPE SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED FROM CNTRL THROUGH NERN AR INTO SERN MO.

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The severe weather from the Isaac remnants returns--Tornado Warning for Marshall and Woodford counties (NE of Peoria) until 12:30. From ILX:

TORNADO WARNING

ILC123-203-011730-

/O.NEW.KILX.TO.W.0017.120901T1648Z-120901T1730Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL

1148 AM CDT SAT SEP 1 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHEASTERN MARSHALL COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

NORTH CENTRAL WOODFORD COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 1230 PM CDT.

* AT 1141 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS

STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTH OF MINONK...OR 14 MILES NORTHEAST

OF EUREKA...AND MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

WASHBURN...TOLUCA...BENSON...PATTONSBURG AND LA ROSE.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 39 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 21 AND 28.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL

1226 PM CDT SAT SEP 1 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

CENTRAL MARSHALL COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 115 PM CDT.

* AT 1221 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LA ROSE...OR 11 MILES EAST OF LACON...AND MOVING NORTHWEST AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

LACON...VARNA...SPARLAND...HENRY...MARSHALL COUNTY AIRPORT AND LAKE WILDWOOD.

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TORNADO WARNING

ARC021-MOC069-012145-

/O.NEW.KMEG.TO.W.0046.120901T2119Z-120901T2145Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN

419 PM CDT SAT SEP 1 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHERN CLAY COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

NORTHEASTERN DUNKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 445 PM CDT

* AT 419 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR CORNING...MOVING

NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO CORNING...

CAMPBELL...BRIAN...VALLEY RIDGE...WILHELMINA...MC GUIRES AND CHALK

BLUFF NATURAL AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

.THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STORM SHELTER. IF NO

STORM SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE

BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE

BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM

WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A

SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE

NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

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I'd say there might be something down with that cell in Northeastern AR, rather tight couplet and nice hook on reflectivity.

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT FOR

NORTHEASTERN DUNKLIN AND NORTHERN CLAY COUNTIES...

AT 430 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO

INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MCDOUGAL...OR 7

MILES NORTHEAST OF CORNING...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. A TRAINED

SPOTTER REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD IN NORTH OF CORNING AT 419 PM CDT.

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TOG, Southeastern MO.

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL STODDARD AND

NORTHEASTERN BUTLER COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI UNTIL 500 PM

CDT...

AT 439 PM CDT...LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO ON THE GROUND. THIS

TORNADO WAS LOCATED BETWEEN FISK AND ROMBAUER...OR 11 MILES

NORTHEAST OF POPLAR BLUFF...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN

INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID

WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE

CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

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