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September 2012 obs/discussion


Ian

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This might be the shot of the night. The lightning cooperated more with the second batch but not entirely--like the cloud in the stroke on this one. Plus though I always say shooting lightning is simple--because it is--doing so with the monuments is not quite as simple. I *think* overall I should have exposed a smidge less... guess I gotta lean someday (somehow these are the first "Kevin Ambrose" type shots I've done here).

post-1615-0-43915400-1346558869_thumb.jp

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00z NAM changes its mind... BWI/DCA/IAD all about 2" give or take a few tenths... I-81 corridor takes brunt -- down towards Luray area -- 3"+

GFS says rain? You will be lucky to get an inch at the major 3 airports... close to 1.5" in I-81 corridor... so again about half of 00z NAM QPF output at 84 hrs...

Though by 96 or so... GFS does give 3 major airports close to 1.5" and I-81 area 2" or so...

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Got 00.00 yesterday. Saw lightning though. Looking for another shutout today.

It's ironic that DCA's total of 1.64 inches of precipitation yesterday was the most since December 7, 2011 (when it was inundated with 3.10 inches), and yet much of the metropolitan area was shutout or close to it. IAD received all of a trace.

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It's ironic that DCA's total of 1.64 inches of precipitation yesterday was the most since December 7, 2011 (when it was inundated with 3.10 inches), and yet much of the metropolitan area was shutout or close to it. IAD received all of a trace.

The GFS bullseye was right! Only off by a factor of 10 or so for rain.

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0.00 yesterday, with sunny skies through milky clouds. Hot and miserable: 91F and as humid as I can recall feeling. Today: mostly cloudy with on/off sprinkles that have yet to get the ground completely wet. I-81 jackpot for sure.

edited to add that we've been in the middle of a big (and apparently the sole) blob of moisture on radar, and the occasional sprinkles are all we've got to show for it. Is anyone out there receiving more than light sprinkles from this? 'Cause this is pathetic.

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0.00 yesterday, with sunny skies through milky clouds. Hot and miserable: 91F and as humid as I can recall feeling. Today: mostly cloudy with on/off sprinkles that have yet to get the ground completely wet. I-81 jackpot for sure.

edited to add that we've been in the middle of a big (and apparently the sole) blob of moisture on radar, and the occasional sprinkles are all we've got to show for it. Is anyone out there receiving more than light sprinkles from this? 'Cause this is pathetic.

It's been raining up here for a while now. Steady but light but would classify as rain.

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I'm not yet in the fail camp because I always assumed most of the good stuff would be Sunday evening and beyond and then any second batch later on....but...I did express yesterday that the big totals seemed a tad aggressive and that I was starting to get that yucky feeling...it's ok though...I will complain on Wednesday if I'm still sitting at 0.00

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I'm not yet in the fail camp because I always assumed most of the good stuff would be Sunday evening and beyond and then any second batch later on....but...I did express yesterday that the big totals seemed a tad aggressive and that I was starting to get that yucky feeling...it's ok though...I will complain on Wednesday if I'm still sitting at 0.00

I'm not waiting until then. Entering complain mode now.

Fail... Fail...Fail...

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Younger Cu field across central West Virginia ... will be interesting to see if we can pull anything out that before sunset.

On another note, I have to wonder if maybe there will be an isolated tornado risk across southern and maybe central VA tomorrow ... based on the directional shear forecasted and the history of this system. Thoughts?

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Younger Cu field across central West Virginia ... will be interesting to see if we can pull anything out that before sunset.

On another note, I have to wonder if maybe there will be an isolated tornado risk across southern and maybe central VA tomorrow ... based on the directional shear forecasted and the history of this system. Thoughts?

probably a non zero risk but lesser than recent days as the sys continues to wash out. looks like the best area is over the apps which is a little sketchy for much. sw va maybe.

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