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Wake Me Up When September Ends / Banter thread


Damage In Tolland

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Steve's a denier. But I love the man.

Having a debate with Powderfreak. I'm pretty sure that all of SNE wants below normal temps for snow. AOA vs AOB. AOB wins in all of SNE for snow I think. Anyone have the stats? I know it's like that for the cp and the cp is never AOB while the interior is AOA...doesn't happen in winter.

Concur! Just cross reference these, easy to see

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/climate/bossnw.shtml

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/climate/bosave.shtml

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Emanuel's work is about the intensity of storms... not the numbers/frequency. Most of the evidence out there is that storms may become less frequent, but more intense as I posted. I'm just saying what the research shows, Steve.

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Emanuel's work is about the intensity of storms... not the numbers/frequency. Most of the evidence out there is that storms may become less frequent, but more intense as I posted. I'm just saying what the research shows, Steve.

Uh my original post was, where are all these major hurricanes? When was the last one? ACE numbers have gone down since 2007

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Steve's a denier. But I love the man.

Having a debate with Powderfreak. I'm pretty sure that all of SNE wants below normal temps for snow. AOA vs AOB. AOB wins in all of SNE for snow I think. Anyone have the stats? I know it's like that for the cp and the cp is never AOB while the interior is AOA...doesn't happen in winter.

I'm not sure why the CP would ever be AOB while the interior is AOA...and why that would matter?

All I'm saying is if we see a winter with 150% of normal QPF, the interior is more likely to have a big winter than a season where D/J/F/M average below normal in temps. Precipitation is the key in the interior of New England, especially probably the Worcester Hills and Berkshires. If there is a dry winter, it doesn't matter what temperatures do, the snowfall will be sub-par.

Meanwhile, on the coastal plain, you would probably rather have cold temps first and worry about precipitation later. Average temperatures are such that you won't have a big snow year if its an AOA winter. The percentage of winter precipitation that falls as snow on the CP is such that you can take a hit in QPF and still have a snowier than average winter if its cold and and the precipitation is mainly in the form of snow.

Global warming may help us over the next 100 years. Warm waters... stronger baroclinic zone... and our winter snowfall for most of NE is more closely correlated to precip and not temps.

Yeah but there's a difference between the mid atlantic where seasonal snowfall is closely tied to temperatures as opposed to New England where seasonal snowfall is more closely tied to precipitation.

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Concur! Just cross reference these, easy to see

http://www.erh.noaa....te/bossnw.shtml

http://www.erh.noaa....te/bosave.shtml

Yeah absolutely no doubt that BOS snow is tied to temperatures. No debate there. The debate is interior SNE...at what point do locations start to suffer in a below normal precipitation winter... is is ORH-BDL or further north like CON-DDH latitude?

In interior SNE, if you could pick one variable as a lock, would you rather bank 150% of QPF throughout the winter and take your chances with temps? Or would you rather do a -3F or -4F departure and take your chances with QPF?

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Concur! Just cross reference these, easy to see

http://www.erh.noaa....te/bossnw.shtml

http://www.erh.noaa....te/bosave.shtml

Look at Feb 69, 41.3 while the winter total was 56.8. the whole winter was wrapped into one historic month, Im old enough to remember those back to back blizzards, no days off from school as they happened during winter vacation.

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