Mr Torchey Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Previous streak for BDR was 12 months I believe. If thats true, then this is beyond historical, grand slam out of the park Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Right, its natural for people think that as soon as something happens, its because of some trend line or the reason for that trend line. We hear more about it now in our area because the last few years have been quite warm...particularly the fall and summer...and its especially noticeable this year because we had our first warm winter in several years too to go along with the warm summer. But its easy to forget just how big the temperature swings are in comparison to the longer term trends...and its also very easy to forget that we are such a small area in the country. As I mentioned before....most people would have no idea that we have a negative trendline in U.S. temps since the turn of the centruy (its actually negative back to 1997) because most of the cooling has been in the upper plains and western U.S...much larger areas than our little region in the northeast...but we dont pay attention or "feel" their weather, so most wouldn't know. Same reason I said earlier that very few around here probably also know that the 2004-2005 winter was one of the warmest in the U.S. on record...but our own little region in New England and the upper M.A. saw below average temps that winter (with a crapload of snow)....so you surely weren't hearing people squawk about the warmth in the country in our areas. We are talking about a 30 year warming trend of 0.4 degrees F per decade in the CONUS (and very similar for just the northeast). Getting a few summers that are +3.0F above average is only a minor result of the underlying trend...the overwhelming reason is the synoptic patterns that set up and often become semi-permanent during different teleconnector phases. Nobody is "denying" an underlying warming trend....but chalking up +4 months to it really takes away from the meteorological discussion about patterns and teleconnector phases and is just an ignorant response on the whole. These months that are +3.7 would not be average months or colder than normal if we removed our underlying trend. And if we wanted to get nitpicky...you know what the decadal trend is for the Northeast (Maryland and every state northeastward is defined as the northeast by NCDC) since 1930? A whopping 0.04F per decade. We were quite warm up here in the last AMO+ phase in the 1930s through the mid 1950s. I just really think it takes away from the real meteorological discussion/reasoning for our extreme patterns when every time there is a warm season or a warm year or a frigid year even, that the climate change stuff is brought up...when it really has very little to do with the anomalies. If you wanted to say that our +4.7 month might have been +3.8 in 1987 or +4.4 in 1948, then people can knock themselves out....but they don't do that...instead, its a generic label which is just showing their lack of knowledge on our temperature record and lack of understanding of synoptic patterns and teleconnection relationships with those patterns. It's driven into our heads now. Everything is extreme and everything is related to AGW. Last year, the tornado season was mentioned with AGW. Now the drought in the Plains caused a one of the most quiet seasons on record...and that is blamed on AGW. I understand why the general public gets concerned, it doesn't help having NASO scientists say "this is consistent with what the models predict for a warming climate.." I don't have an issue with the underlying AGW over the last 100 years or so. Only a kook like Bastardi seems to have an issue. But, it's misconceptions or like you said...lack of understanding, that's causing some things to be linked to AGW a lot more than it should be...and frankly...it's a little disturbing to see scientists in the field doing so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 I do not live in Moosup. your average is 68, do the mathMonday Sunny, with a high near 74. Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 58. Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 73. Tuesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 58. Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 76. Wednesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 63. Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 your average is 68, do the math Monday Sunny, with a high near 74. Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 58. Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 73. Tuesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 58. Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 76. Wednesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 63. Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 78. So a -1 or so. If it were below and I said above normal on the way, and my argument was going to lead to a +1 over 3 days, come on man, please. This is not even worth talking about. The only thing I am excited about is no humidity for a change, which has been never ending. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 So a -1 or so. The only thing I am excited about is no humidity for a change, which has been never ending. LOL I do not live in Fairfield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 It's driven into our heads now. Everything is extreme and everything is related to AGW. Last year, the tornado season was mentioned with AGW. Now the drought in the Plains caused a one of the most quiet seasons on record...and that is blamed on AGW. I understand why the general public gets concerned, it doesn't help having NASO scientists say "this is consistent with what the models predict for a warming climate.." I don't have an issue with the underlying AGW over the last 100 years or so. Only a kook like Bastardi seems to have an issue. But, it's misconceptions or like you said...lack of understanding, that's causing some things to be linked to AGW a lot more than it should be...and frankly...it's a little disturbing to see scientists in the field doing so. Yeah, I mean I get the underlying warming trend and the slight shifts in probabilities for certain extreme events...but on the whole, those are so insignificant compared to the monthly or yearly anomalies we discuss within our own region that blaming them on a warming trend of a few tenths of a degree F is pretty silly. I find it fascinating personally that something like the AMO is so well correlated to our summer temps (and not our winter temps)...particularly in the east and northeast. I find it fascinating how much our winter temp trends follow the NAO/AO decadal cycle. I am interested in why the vortex can get stuck over Alaska for 12 months and cause us to torch like no tomorrow. That type of stuff is really interesting to me. I feel like the climate change angle often mucks up the discussions about the other stuff...when there is between a 1-2F difference between our summer temps in AMO+ vs AMO-, I'm not that interested in a 0.03F per decade change in temps from global warming since the last AMO+ phase...the variability between the phases itself is an order of magnitude higher than the underlying trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 I do not live in Fairfield YEs, its been dry with no humidity up there lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Dews def sliding down a bit Still sultry though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radiator Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Little thunderstorm just popped up on the Greenwich/Westchester border, heading this way? Or stalled in place? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 I thought you loved these high dews? So a -1 or so. If it were below and I said above normal on the way, and my argument was going to lead to a +1 over 3 days, come on man, please. This is not even worth talking about. The only thing I am excited about is no humidity for a change, which has been never ending. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 I thought you loved these high dews? He loves every type of weather....BSE2, remember? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Little thunderstorm just popped up on the Greenwich/Westchester border, heading this way? Or stalled in place? a couple down there-another in Westchester too-hardly moving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 He loves every type of weather....BSE2, remember? Gotta admit there's great entertainment value in these spaces when minority opinions are raised in opposition to the party line espoused by the usual suspects here. Indeed the numbers of said suspects are vast and range from Southeast CT. to the Canadian border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 I thought you loved these high dews? I do, but change is nice, as I have said a thousand times, I love the process of change and season, the step down in fall, and the gradual step up in spring. Day after day after day of dews in the 70s have left my tired working outside, I will admit that. Sun-Tues will feel great, as will the warm up and higher dews that follow, hope and change! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 He loves every type of weather....BSE2, remember? I do will! And yes I dont think many will argue that this summer has been incredible, and tolerable for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 81/73 feels warmer than that away from the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 No mention of strong winds on Saturday and Saturday night? Is this only a NNE threat? I am assuming so as the usual hype-sters aren't playing anything up. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BE PRECEDED BY STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED...WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THE GENERAL TIME FRAME OF 5 PM TO 10 PM SATURDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 I do will! And yes I dont think many will argue that this summer has been incredible, and tolerable for the most part. I agree. But hopefully that ends soon... Interesting that you look forward to lower dews though. I for one would never prefer cold, stormy winter weather to end, just for a different experience. But to each their own Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 No mention of strong winds on Saturday and Saturday night? Is this only a NNE threat? I am assuming so as the usual hype-sters aren't playing anything up. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BE PRECEDED BY STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED...WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THE GENERAL TIME FRAME OF 5 PM TO 10 PM SATURDAY. See other thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 I agree. But hopefully that ends soon... Interesting that you look forward to lower dews though. I for one would never prefer cold, stormy winter weather to end, just for a different experience. But to each their own Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Another check off the list for the fall... the first mention of 30s in the zone forecast product! Monday and Tuesday night's lows are now forecast for 30s here. Point and click for 800ft has 37F Monday night and 39F Tuesday night. Sunday Night: Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Monday: Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 60s. Monday Night Through Tuesday Night: Clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the upper 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Exactly. You need to post some selfy (Wiz term?) photo in January when it is -5F. From the same usual angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Forecast for 2,000ft in Stowe is the first freezing point 'n click I've seen... its higher above that point, as is often the case, due to the nighttime inversions. Check out Monday night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 You need to post some selfy (Wiz term?) photo in January when it is -5F. From the same usual angle. I will, hopefully this season I can build my beer tree out of snow, last year was a down season:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 7, 2012 Author Share Posted September 7, 2012 Man dews here have been 70-73 all day . Multiple rolls have been used Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Man dews here have been 70-73 all day . Multiple rolls have been used It is man, but cool and dry in Moosup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Yeah, I mean I get the underlying warming trend and the slight shifts in probabilities for certain extreme events...but on the whole, those are so insignificant compared to the monthly or yearly anomalies we discuss within our own region that blaming them on a warming trend of a few tenths of a degree F is pretty silly. I find it fascinating personally that something like the AMO is so well correlated to our summer temps (and not our winter temps)...particularly in the east and northeast. I find it fascinating how much our winter temp trends follow the NAO/AO decadal cycle. I am interested in why the vortex can get stuck over Alaska for 12 months and cause us to torch like no tomorrow. That type of stuff is really interesting to me. I feel like the climate change angle often mucks up the discussions about the other stuff...when there is between a 1-2F difference between our summer temps in AMO+ vs AMO-, I'm not that interested in a 0.03F per decade change in temps from global warming since the last AMO+ phase...the variability between the phases itself is an order of magnitude higher than the underlying trend. I know this is somewhat of an OT statement, but I almost think it's human nature to assign a result to a problem that we are unsure of. It's easy for us to blame AGW for X storm or X weather pattern. This is what computers tell us. That didn't work too hot in the late 90s now did it? We simply sometimes hate to say that we don't know and I think it is ok to say that. Like we said a million times...there is an underlying signal. But, there are a lot of questions too. I like using ACE as an example because I find it really interesting. We know how waters cool significantly after a cyclone has passed and how they transport heat north. But for a few years now ACE has been low meaning tropical cyclone activity has been low. SO where does that extra heat go? Well it has to go somewhere...we have a heat budget. Is it the reason for the mid latitude heatwaves? Maybe, maybe not...all I'm trying to say is that we should try to keep these in mind when thinking about how much warming we are causing. This isn't a denial-like opinion...it's one that is trying to figure out what's going on. Maybe the ice melts in 10 or 20 years...who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 A brief shower just popped up and delivered a bit of light rain just as I was finishing up with cutting my front lawn with the sun out at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 7, 2012 Author Share Posted September 7, 2012 A brief shower just popped up and delivered a bit of light rain just as I was finishing up with cutting my front lawn with the sun out at the same time. Just as we said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Man dews here have been 70-73 all day . Multiple rolls have been used Yeah that's awful... a world of difference up north. Sitting at a comfortable 79/53 and had a high of 81F which is about +10F above normal, but with dews in the low 50s it feels nice. Good breeze, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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