Wake Me Up When September Ends / Banter thread

[Ginx snewx]

We have been warm the last 5 years here and the AMO correlates to warm summers pretty well. Obviously some sort of AGW signal is there over the last 30 years or more....but you don't get these crazy numbers from AGW alone. We had a heck of a feedback in the Plains this year which probably helped the East Coast heat. That can be pinned on last winter and also...the big vortex in AK which was aided by Indo convection and a solar connection.

it has not been warm all the time either.

[Allsnow]

Do not know if he is using Trenton or not but Nov Dec Jan 10-11 were below.

He would use newark.....w/e they had

[CoastalWx]

it has not been warm all the time either.

Well right...not all the time and not everywhere.

[Damage In Tolland]

Congrats Everyone??

Joe Furey ‏@StormFurey

In CT 2012 ranks as one of the warmest in 107years. Last winter (+5.9) 2nd warmest, Spring (+5.4) tied warmest, Summer 5th warmest (+1.5)

This is an ugly stat..But damn impressive.

In one yr..we had the 2nd warmest winter(disaster) Warmest spring ever(hooray) and 5th warmest summer.. (high dews FTW)

[forkyfork]

it has not been warm all the time either.

i'm not calling for above normal all the time, just that it's difficult to get any prolonged negative stretches in our current climate

[CoastalWx]

Honestly, that streak in the PAC NW is almost as impressive..perhaps moreso in this day and age. It might actually be more impressive just to their north as well. But, nobody cares about buoy temps in the Gulf of Alaska...they care about ASOS and AWOS temps. We should be getting a lot more stations in Siberia coming on line. It will be interesting to see how actual temps are in that region.

[ORH_wxman]

That whole PAC NW area has been cold for a while...going up to Juneau AK...they have had 18 of the last 22 months below normal there. Its no surprise though....when they are sitting under a trough over there, its usually torching here.

The last full year below normal here was 2009....then 2007, 2004, 2003, and 2000 to round out all the years below average here since 2000.

[CT Rain]

We have been warm the last 5 years here and the AMO correlates to warm summers pretty well. Obviously some sort of AGW signal is there over the last 30 years or more....but you don't get these crazy numbers from AGW alone. We had a heck of a feedback in the Plains this year which probably helped the East Coast heat. That can be pinned on last winter and also...the big vortex in AK which was aided by Indo convection and a solar connection.

Yeah I agree with this. The combination of the AMO and the pretty significant AGW underlying trend line helps bring the torch out. We'll see periods of below... maybe even prolonged in the future... but there's no question the bell curve has moved to the right.

I guess my one concern is that we keep developing crazy positive feedbacks in the Plains more often and that signal could really overwhelm everything else.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah I agree with this. The combination of the AMO and the pretty significant AGW underlying trend line helps bring the torch out. We'll see periods of below... maybe even prolonged in the future... but there's no question the bell curve has moved to the right.

I guess my one concern is that we keep developing crazy positive feedbacks in the Plains more often and that signal could really overwhelm everything else.

I guess the question is how much of it is AGW? I really don't know. I'd say I think it's definitely less than 50% for now, but JMHO.

[CT Rain]

I guess the question is how much of it is AGW? I really don't know. I'd say I think it's definitely less than 50% for now, but JMHO.

Even 50 percent is quite significant given the high correlation between AMO and temps.

I was on NPR yesterday with a researcher from Rutgers talking about the retreat of the jet stream to the north with the higher potential for cut-offs which is interesting. May partially explain an increase in extreme precip events.

[powderfreak]

The last full year below normal here was 2009....then 2007, 2004, 2003, and 2000 to round out all the years below average here since 2000.

Wow that's actually a lot more years than I would've guessed. Is that for BOS or ORH?

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah I agree with this. The combination of the AMO and the pretty significant AGW underlying trend line helps bring the torch out. We'll see periods of below... maybe even prolonged in the future... but there's no question the bell curve has moved to the right.

I guess my one concern is that we keep developing crazy positive feedbacks in the Plains more often and that signal could really overwhelm everything else.

If we see a sustained drought, then that would be a concern, but otherwise until 2012, the plains had actually been running below average for about 5 years now after absolutely torching for about 9 years from 1997-2006.

I actually find it pretty funny that there's so much talk of this unstoppable warming now just because for the northeast U.S., its been so warm the last 3 years. For the CONUS, we warmed much faster in the 1990s into the early 2000s...but we didn't feel it quite as much in the northeast. Since the big PDO flip in '07, the central and western US has cooled quite a bit which is why the national trendline is negative since 2000, but these last 3 years really torched us in the east...and of course this summer was hot just about everywhere except the PAC NW so when we feel it, we talk about it.

[CT Rain]

If we see a sustained drought, then that would be a concern, but otherwise until 2012, the plains had actually been running below average for about 5 years now after absolutely torching for about 9 years from 1997-2006.

I actually find it pretty funny that there's so much talk of this unstoppable warming now just because for the northeast U.S., its been so warm the last 3 years. For the CONUS, we warmed much faster in the 1990s into the early 2000s...but we didn't feel it quite as much in the northeast. Since the big PDO flip in '07, the central and western US has cooled quite a bit which is why the national trendline is negative since 2000, but these last 3 years really torched us in the east...and of course this summer was hot just about everywhere except the PAC NW so when we feel it, we talk about it.

No doubt... was sort of a thought for going forward.

I think with the overall trend of a warming globe the actual impacts region by region may be quite different. Warmer water temps lead to more baroclinicity in winter and more snow? Drought to our west messes with average jet position??? who knows.

I think some funky things will happen down the road but I don't think anyone can tell you or even has an idea what those things do to small regions like the NEUS.

[CoastalWx]

Even 50 percent is quite significant given the high correlation between AMO and temps.

I was on NPR yesterday with a researcher from Rutgers talking about the retreat of the jet stream to the north with the higher potential for cut-offs which is interesting. May partially explain an increase in extreme precip events.

I know 50% isn't narrowing it down, but I don't know enough to make a better guess than that, other than to say it's less. Just saying I don't believe it as the "main" drive right now.

[CT Rain]

I know 50% isn't narrowing it down, but I don't know enough to make a better guess than that, other than to say it's less. Just saying I don't believe it as the "main" drive right now.

Yeah I don't think it will ever be the "main driver" with natural variation likely accounting for more short term changes.

I'm certainly no denier with AGW... embrace most of the science whole heartedly... I do think pinning down changes year-to-year on a state wide level is ridiculous though lol.

[ORH_wxman]

I know 50% isn't narrowing it down, but I don't know enough to make a better guess than that, other than to say it's less. Just saying I don't believe it as the "main" drive right now.

Its not even close as the main driver when you are talking about a hot summer or a warm 3 year period. Especially when the 30 year averages are getting reset every 10 years. That in itself drowns out some of the backround warming even further.

We've been torching because a vortex has been rotting over AK for the better part of a year. Like you said, same reason that the PAC NW or most of AK can't buy an above normal month recently.

As I mentioned, it gets brought up more now around here, because we are the ones torching. The CONUS has a whole has been cooling since 2000. The northern plains and the west are a lot bigger than our area, but most of us don't really pay attention to their weather.

Most people probably are not awar ethat 2004-2005 was an absolute furnace for most of the CONUS...but we were in our own little world that winter, so the perception is quite different. Just one example.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah I don't think it will ever be the "main driver" with natural variation likely accounting for more short term changes.

I'm certainly no denier with AGW... embrace most of the science whole heartedly... I do think pinning down changes year-to-year on a state wide level is ridiculous though lol.

Its not even close as the main driver when you are talking about a hot summer or a warm 3 year period. Especially when the 30 year averages are getting reset every 10 years. That in itself drowns out some of the backround warming even further.

We've been torching because a vortex has been rotting over AK for the better part of a year. Like you said, same reason that the PAC NW or most of AK can't buy an above normal month recently.

As I mentioned, it gets brought up more now around here, because we are the ones torching. The CONUS has a whole has been cooling since 2000. The northern plains and the west are a lot bigger than our area, but most of us don't really pay attention to their weather.

Most people probably are not awar ethat 2004-2005 was an absolute furnace for most of the CONUS...but we were in our own little world that winter, so the perception is quite different. Just one example.

Yeah exactly. I'm all for finding out the how and why too. It doesn't help that every heat wave, severe event etc gets jammed down our throat and of course climate change is always brought into the picture. We can't have a downpour without blaming AGW now either. I guess my 72F dewpoint would have been 71F without AGW.

It also doesn't help having national news networks calling their weather team the "extreme" weather team and "extreme" weather center. No wonder why the chatter of climate changed has increased. There is the AGW signal, but we have to be careful about pinning down events and saying that event X or event Y is because of climate change..etc.

[CapturedNature]

i haven't had more than two consecutive below normal months for the past 5 years

Do you have data to support that statement?

[ORH_wxman]

Do you have data to support that statement?

He was using EWR...which he is correct on that statement. They've failed to get more than 2 below normal in a row...they've had some 3 out of 4s, but never 3 in a row.

Up here we've done it a few times in that same time frame. The warm summers though the past 5 years make it difficult to get longer stretches below normal. 2009 had the frigid June/July, but August sneaked its way above normal. The summers since then have all been warm. The last stretch up here with 3 in a row below normal was Dec 2010-Mar 2011...4 in a row below normal. Boston actually had 5 in a row below normal because they squeaked in under normal in November 2010 as well.

[CoastalWx]

LE showers Saturday night downwind of the lakes.

[powderfreak]

Its not even close as the main driver when you are talking about a hot summer or a warm 3 year period. Especially when the 30 year averages are getting reset every 10 years. That in itself drowns out some of the backround warming even further.

We've been torching because a vortex has been rotting over AK for the better part of a year. Like you said, same reason that the PAC NW or most of AK can't buy an above normal month recently.

As I mentioned, it gets brought up more now around here, because we are the ones torching. The CONUS has a whole has been cooling since 2000. The northern plains and the west are a lot bigger than our area, but most of us don't really pay attention to their weather.

Most people probably are not awar ethat 2004-2005 was an absolute furnace for most of the CONUS...but we were in our own little world that winter, so the perception is quite different. Just one example.

It's just hard not to imagine some sort of relationship when it's a fact the world is warming as a whole. I just think if we knew we were headed towards another ice age and had documented global cooling...then saw multiple years below normal, it would be hard not to speculate a relationship.

[CapturedNature]

He was using EWR...which he is correct on that statement. They've failed to get more than 2 below normal in a row...they've had some 3 out of 4s, but never 3 in a row.

Up here we've done it a few times in that same time frame. The warm summers though the past 5 years make it difficult to get longer stretches below normal. 2009 had the frigid June/July, but August sneaked its way above normal. The summers since then have all been warm. The last stretch up here with 3 in a row below normal was Dec 2010-Mar 2011...4 in a row below normal. Boston actually had 5 in a row below normal because they squeaked in under normal in November 2010 as well.

OK...that makes a little more sense. I thought we were talking about SNE lol. I think May-Nov 2008 wasn't bad either. I think most of those months were below or just near normal.

[Mr Torchey]

Sunny

80/72

[Mr Torchey]

This is below average next week. Our average is 66, LL do the math.

• 
  

  Monday

  Sunny, with a high near 71.
  

• 
  

  Monday Night

  Mostly clear, with a low around 46.
  

• 
  

  Tuesday

  Sunny, with a high near 72.
  

• 
  

  Tuesday Night

  Mostly clear, with a low around 49.
  

• 
  

  Wednesday

  Sunny, with a high near 76.
  

• 
  

  Wednesday Night

  Partly cloudy, with a low around 54.
  

• 
  

  Thursday

  Mostly sunny, with a high near 79.
  

I do not live in Moosup.

[tamarack]

i haven't had more than two consecutive below normal months for the past 5 years

Nearest long-term COOP to MBY is at 14 months above and counting, as June was +0.1. However, they were subnormal May-July 2009 (and 5 of 6 May-Oct), and also Oct 08-Jan 09, for 9-of-13. Been pretty warm since then. I blame it all on the 2010 New Years' retro-bomb; Maine weather hasn't recovered from that yet.

[Mr Torchey]

Hope Ryan made it to the beach in RI today, if so he sure has a gem.

84 at HFD and BDL and 80 at BOS with an east wind, not bad!

[HoarfrostHubb]

Sweat pouring down my back...

The air in here is almost unbreathable,,,awesome.

[ORH_wxman]

It's just hard not to imagine some sort of relationship when it's a fact the world is warming as a whole. I just think if we knew we were headed towards another ice age and had documented global cooling...then saw multiple years below normal, it would be hard not to speculate a relationship.

Right, its natural for people think that as soon as something happens, its because of some trend line or the reason for that trend line.

We hear more about it now in our area because the last few years have been quite warm...particularly the fall and summer...and its especially noticeable this year because we had our first warm winter in several years too to go along with the warm summer.

But its easy to forget just how big the temperature swings are in comparison to the longer term trends...and its also very easy to forget that we are such a small area in the country. As I mentioned before....most people would have no idea that we have a negative trendline in U.S. temps since the turn of the centruy (its actually negative back to 1997) because most of the cooling has been in the upper plains and western U.S...much larger areas than our little region in the northeast...but we dont pay attention or "feel" their weather, so most wouldn't know. Same reason I said earlier that very few around here probably also know that the 2004-2005 winter was one of the warmest in the U.S. on record...but our own little region in New England and the upper M.A. saw below average temps that winter (with a crapload of snow)....so you surely weren't hearing people squawk about the warmth in the country in our areas.

We are talking about a 30 year warming trend of 0.4 degrees F per decade in the CONUS (and very similar for just the northeast). Getting a few summers that are +3.0F above average is only a minor result of the underlying trend...the overwhelming reason is the synoptic patterns that set up and often become semi-permanent during different teleconnector phases.

Nobody is "denying" an underlying warming trend....but chalking up +4 months to it really takes away from the meteorological discussion about patterns and teleconnector phases and is just an ignorant response on the whole. These months that are +3.7 would not be average months or colder than normal if we removed our underlying trend.

And if we wanted to get nitpicky...you know what the decadal trend is for the Northeast (Maryland and every state northeastward is defined as the northeast by NCDC) since 1930? A whopping 0.04F per decade. We were quite warm up here in the last AMO+ phase in the 1930s through the mid 1950s.

I just really think it takes away from the real meteorological discussion/reasoning for our extreme patterns when every time there is a warm season or a warm year or a frigid year even, that the climate change stuff is brought up...when it really has very little to do with the anomalies. If you wanted to say that our +4.7 month might have been +3.8 in 1987 or +4.4 in 1948, then people can knock themselves out....but they don't do that...instead, its a generic label which is just showing their lack of knowledge on our temperature record and lack of understanding of synoptic patterns and teleconnection relationships with those patterns.

[Mr Torchey]

Right, its natural for people think that as soon as something happens, its because of some trend line or the reason for that trend line.

We hear more about it now in our area because the last few years have been quite warm...particularly the fall and summer...and its especially noticeable this year because we had our first warm winter in several years too to go along with the warm summer.

But its easy to forget just how big the temperature swings are in comparison to the longer term trends...and its also very easy to forget that we are such a small area in the country. As I mentioned before....most people would have no idea that we have a negative trendline in U.S. temps since the turn of the centruy (its actually negative back to 1997) because most of the cooling has been in the upper plains and western U.S...much larger areas than our little region in the northeast...but we dont pay attention or "feel" their weather, so most wouldn't know. Same reason I said earlier that very few around here probably also know that the 2004-2005 winter was one of the warmest in the U.S. on record...but our own little region in New England and the upper M.A. saw below average temps that winter (with a crapload of snow)....so you surely weren't hearing people squawk about the warmth in the country in our areas.

We are talking about a 30 year warming trend of 0.4 degrees F per decade in the CONUS (and very similar for just the northeast). Getting a few summers that are +3.0F above average is only a minor result of the underlying trend...the overwhelming reason is the synoptic patterns that set up and often become semi-permanent during different teleconnector phases.

Nobody is "denying" an underlying warming trend....but chalking up +4 months to it really takes away from the meteorological discussion about patterns and teleconnector phases and is just an ignorant response on the whole. These months that are +3.7 would not be average months or colder than normal if we removed our underlying trend.

And if we wanted to get nitpicky...you know what the decadal trend is for the Northeast (Maryland and every state northeastward is defined as the northeast by NCDC) since 1930? A whopping 0.04F per decade. We were quite warm up here in the last AMO+ phase in the 1930s through the mid 1950s.

I just really think it takes away from the real meteorological discussion/reasoning for our extreme patterns when every time there is a warm season or a warm year or a frigid year even, that the climate change stuff is brought up...when it really has very little to do with the anomalies. If you wanted to say that our +4.7 month might have been +3.8 in 1987 or +4.4 in 1948, then people can knock themselves out....but they don't do that...instead, its a generic label which is just showing their lack of knowledge on our temperature record and lack of understanding of synoptic patterns and teleconnection relationships with those patterns.

Nice post Will and I agree. I just find it fascinating that we are about to have our 19th month in a row of above normal, which I am pretty sure blows away any previous streak. I was just as fascinated two winters ago with the 50+ days of snowcover, 3 ft on the ground at one time and 70+ inches of snow. I love extremes and just happen to enjoy the sun and warmth, I understand most here are heavily biased to snow and cold.

The globe is warming, I believe in climate change, I think its something that has happened since the beginning of time just so happens that currently we might be in a warming regime, and its also interesting to one day find out if and how much man had a hand in these changes.

Fascinating stuff.

[Brian5671]

Previous streak for BDR was 12 months I believe.