snowman21 Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Connecticut averages for the 9/10-14 period (based on 1981-2010 normals)... 67.6 BRIDGEPORT SIKORSKY AP 66.8 GROTON 66.7 STAMFORD 5 N 66.6 NEW HAVEN WB AP 66.5 BRIDGEPORT-SUCCESS HILL 66.0 MT CARMEL 66.0 HARTFORD BRAINARD FLD 65.6 MIDDLETOWN 4 W 65.6 DANBURY 65.3 HARTFORD 65.3 GROTON NEW LONDON AP 65.0 MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNI AP 65.0 NORWICH PUB UTIL PLT 64.2 WILLIMANTIC WINDHAM AP 64.1 BURLINGTON 63.9 BULLS BRG DAM 63.5 STORRS 63.4 DANBURY MUNI AP 63.2 STAFFORDVILLE 62.7 MANSFIELD HOLLOW LAKE 62.3 WIGWAM RSVR 62.3 WEST THOMPSON LAKE 62.0 HAMPTON 61.6 FALLS VILLAGE 61.5 BAKERSVILLE 60.6 NORFOLK 2 SW 60.4 SHEPAUG DAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 SLK has already hit 32F...maybe upper 20s for them while the rest hit mid/upper 30s? May have a chance at upper 30s here...42F is the lowest so far this fall. Also frost chances in NE VT spots like Island Pond, Sutton, etc that have already been in the 30s a couple times. I bet HIE and BML are closer to SLK this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Once the AMO switches phases we'll probably start to see more months/seasons that are below-average than above i think we'll be above average no matter the AMO phase is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 i think we'll be above average no matter what phase the AMO is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 you're a denier too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 you're a denier too? lol...are you implying we'll never have below normal stretches/seasons again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 lol...are you implying we'll never have below normal stretches/seasons again? not "never again", but it's very unlikely we'll see any below normal stretches beyond a month or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 not "never again", but it's very unlikely we'll see any below normal stretches beyond a month or two. That is ridiculous. You have to be trolling, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 http://www.ouramazingplanet.com/2436-keeping-europe-cold-snowy.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 not "never again", but it's very unlikely we'll see any below normal stretches beyond a month or two. That's hard to do when averages change every 30 years even with a rapidly warming climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 you're a denier too? First off, the averages actually change with the underlying warming. Secondly, those factors such as NAO/AO and even the summer correlation with the AMO completely dwarf the underlying warming trend, so its quite easy to get below average stretches. This is how most of the CONUS has cooled in the winter since 2000...due to the general decline of the AO and more recently the decadal change in PDO. We've seen the opposite occur in summer since 1995 with the AMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 i am hoping with every bone in my body that winter is warm and snow-free... seeing unhappy snowmongers (from any region) is better than getting some snow who cares what you hope? i think we'll be above average no matter the AMO phase is wishcast not "never again", but it's very unlikely we'll see any below normal stretches beyond a month or two. anything scientific to back up this ridiculous claim? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 First off, the averages actually change with the underlying warming. Secondly, those factors such as NAO/AO and even the summer correlation with the AMO completely dwarf the underlying warming trend, so its quite easy to get below average stretches. This is how most of the CONUS has cooled in the winter since 2000...due to the general decline of the AO and more recently the decadal change in PDO. We've seen the opposite occur in summer since 1995 with the AMO. there's a growing disconnect between the AMO and arctic/ocean temps http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/7/3/034011/article i remember chatting with you on aim a few years ago and you thought the 2007 sea ice record wouldn't be broken again for a while, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 there's a growing disconnect between the AMO and arctic/ocean temps http://www.americanw...c/#entry1638599 http://iopscience.io.../034011/article i remember chatting with you on aim a few years ago and you thought the 2007 sea ice record wouldn't be broken again for a while, lol That's nice if you are talking about the arctic. But since we are talking about the mid-latitudes where we live, its pretty irrelevant. Regardless, you'll be wrong in fairly short order if you think we can't get more than 1 or 2 months below average during a year. And again, the 30 year normals change every ten years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 less Arctic ice equals more likely -NAO in winter, congrats SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 That is ridiculous. You have to be trolling, right? is it as ridiculous as the past consecutive 18 months of above normal temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 That's nice if you are talking about the arctic. But since we are talking about the mid-latitudes where we live, its pretty irrelevant. Regardless, you'll be wrong in fairly short order if you think we can't get more than 1 or 2 months below average during a year. And again, the 30 year normals change every ten years. i haven't had more than two consecutive below normal months for the past 5 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Its most notable in the summer and fall here. It doesn't affect our winter temps too much. But there's a very high correlation between the AMO and our summers up here. The coolest AMO years within the current positive phase were 2000 and 2009...both had much cooler summers here. The PDO has a higher correlation to winter here but still not that great. Winter is just dominated by the NAO/AO/PNA while summer is more suscpetible to the others because the AO/NAO have much less influence in the summer with the jets much weaker and further north. Yeah the connection between AMO phase and our summer temps is fairly strong. For winter's though isn't there a strong connection between -PDO/-AMO and getting brutal cold/snowy winters? I think I remember reading stuff where during those brutal winters of the 1600's and 1700's research shows that -PDO/-AMO's can lead to some fun times. Not saying the NAO/AO/PNA didn't play any roles here but just wondering. i think we'll be above average no matter the AMO phase is I'm sure we'll see periods again where we see more below-average than above-average...just might not be for another several years but we'll get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 sunspots are low-once we come out of the max late this year bet we had some cold times ahead.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 i haven't had more than two consecutive below normal months for the past 5 years That's remarkable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 i haven't had more than two consecutive below normal months for the past 5 years It because its been pretty warm the past 5 years on the whole in the northeast. But if you are using your BY's inability to get more than 2 months in a row below average over a 5 year period as a statistically significant predictor for the general area going forward, that is laughable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 7, 2012 Author Share Posted September 7, 2012 Congrats Everyone?? Joe Furey @StormFurey In CT 2012 ranks as one of the warmest in 107years. Last winter (+5.9) 2nd warmest, Spring (+5.4) tied warmest, Summer 5th warmest (+1.5) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 How has Seattle been able to have 4 or 5 months above since beginning of 2011? The northeast and OV definitely have been in their own world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 It because its been pretty warm the past 5 years on the whole in the northeast. But if you are using your BY's inability to get more than 2 months in a row below average over a 5 year period as a statistically significant predictor for the general area going forward, that is laughable. Do not know if he is using Trenton or not but Nov Dec Jan 10-11 were below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Yeah the connection between AMO phase and our summer temps is fairly strong. For winter's though isn't there a strong connection between -PDO/-AMO and getting brutal cold/snowy winters? I think I remember reading stuff where during those brutal winters of the 1600's and 1700's research shows that -PDO/-AMO's can lead to some fun times. Not saying the NAO/AO/PNA didn't play any roles here but just wondering. The '60s and 'first half of the '70s had -PDO/-AMO combo...and were mostly great winters. I don't know much about what the PDO was back in the 1600s and 1700s...we were in the LIA back then anyway so it was a lot colder than now in general. The decadal AO/NAO pattern generally follows the PDO (though its not in perfect sync)...so that can also be a reason why when you get those combos, that the winters are good. They might be related somehow anyway, but we just don't understand it that much yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 How has Seattle been able to have 4 or 5 months above since beginning of 2011? The northeast and OV definitely have been in their own world. Seattle is the new West Chesterfield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Based on those temperatures, those four days would average -1.6 based on Storrs normals which are the coldest on that side of the state. Like I said last night, not a terribly impressive cold shot assuming the forecast holds. A solid cold shot in mid-September should bring 40s down to the water with your area into the upper-30s. Thank you.....i guess if im wrong he will let everyone know about it....but it is what it is....see if bdr can get into 40's....either way humidity going away..thank god Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 It is interesting that for most of the Northeast, how much the positive months have dominated for the last 5 years or so... Would be neat to see even a modest stretch of back to back to back cooler months... Wake me in October... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Do not know if he is using Trenton or not but Nov Dec Jan 10-11 were below. ewr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Seattle is the new West Chesterfield We have been warm the last 5 years here and the AMO correlates to warm summers pretty well. Obviously some sort of AGW signal is there over the last 30 years or more....but you don't get these crazy numbers from AGW alone. We had a heck of a feedback in the Plains this year which probably helped the East Coast heat. That can be pinned on last winter and also...the big vortex in AK which was aided by Indo convection and a solar connection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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