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Wake Me Up When September Ends / Banter thread


Damage In Tolland

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Connecticut averages for the 9/10-14 period (based on 1981-2010 normals)...

67.6 BRIDGEPORT SIKORSKY AP

66.8 GROTON

66.7 STAMFORD 5 N

66.6 NEW HAVEN WB AP

66.5 BRIDGEPORT-SUCCESS HILL

66.0 MT CARMEL

66.0 HARTFORD BRAINARD FLD

65.6 MIDDLETOWN 4 W

65.6 DANBURY

65.3 HARTFORD

65.3 GROTON NEW LONDON AP

65.0 MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNI AP

65.0 NORWICH PUB UTIL PLT

64.2 WILLIMANTIC WINDHAM AP

64.1 BURLINGTON

63.9 BULLS BRG DAM

63.5 STORRS

63.4 DANBURY MUNI AP

63.2 STAFFORDVILLE

62.7 MANSFIELD HOLLOW LAKE

62.3 WIGWAM RSVR

62.3 WEST THOMPSON LAKE

62.0 HAMPTON

61.6 FALLS VILLAGE

61.5 BAKERSVILLE

60.6 NORFOLK 2 SW

60.4 SHEPAUG DAM

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SLK has already hit 32F...maybe upper 20s for them while the rest hit mid/upper 30s?

May have a chance at upper 30s here...42F is the lowest so far this fall. Also frost chances in NE VT spots like Island Pond, Sutton, etc that have already been in the 30s a couple times.

I bet HIE and BML are closer to SLK this time around.
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you're a denier too?

First off, the averages actually change with the underlying warming. Secondly, those factors such as NAO/AO and even the summer correlation with the AMO completely dwarf the underlying warming trend, so its quite easy to get below average stretches.

This is how most of the CONUS has cooled in the winter since 2000...due to the general decline of the AO and more recently the decadal change in PDO. We've seen the opposite occur in summer since 1995 with the AMO.

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i am hoping with every bone in my body that winter is warm and snow-free... seeing unhappy snowmongers (from any region) is better than getting some snow

who cares what you hope?

i think we'll be above average no matter the AMO phase is

wishcast

not "never again", but it's very unlikely we'll see any below normal stretches beyond a month or two.

anything scientific to back up this ridiculous claim?

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First off, the averages actually change with the underlying warming. Secondly, those factors such as NAO/AO and even the summer correlation with the AMO completely dwarf the underlying warming trend, so its quite easy to get below average stretches.

This is how most of the CONUS has cooled in the winter since 2000...due to the general decline of the AO and more recently the decadal change in PDO. We've seen the opposite occur in summer since 1995 with the AMO.

there's a growing disconnect between the AMO and arctic/ocean temps

http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/7/3/034011/article

i remember chatting with you on aim a few years ago and you thought the 2007 sea ice record wouldn't be broken again for a while, lol

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there's a growing disconnect between the AMO and arctic/ocean temps

http://www.americanw...c/#entry1638599

http://iopscience.io.../034011/article

i remember chatting with you on aim a few years ago and you thought the 2007 sea ice record wouldn't be broken again for a while, lol

That's nice if you are talking about the arctic. But since we are talking about the mid-latitudes where we live, its pretty irrelevant.

Regardless, you'll be wrong in fairly short order if you think we can't get more than 1 or 2 months below average during a year.

And again, the 30 year normals change every ten years.

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That's nice if you are talking about the arctic. But since we are talking about the mid-latitudes where we live, its pretty irrelevant.

Regardless, you'll be wrong in fairly short order if you think we can't get more than 1 or 2 months below average during a year.

And again, the 30 year normals change every ten years.

i haven't had more than two consecutive below normal months for the past 5 years

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Its most notable in the summer and fall here. It doesn't affect our winter temps too much. But there's a very high correlation between the AMO and our summers up here. The coolest AMO years within the current positive phase were 2000 and 2009...both had much cooler summers here.

The PDO has a higher correlation to winter here but still not that great. Winter is just dominated by the NAO/AO/PNA while summer is more suscpetible to the others because the AO/NAO have much less influence in the summer with the jets much weaker and further north.

Yeah the connection between AMO phase and our summer temps is fairly strong.

For winter's though isn't there a strong connection between -PDO/-AMO and getting brutal cold/snowy winters? I think I remember reading stuff where during those brutal winters of the 1600's and 1700's research shows that -PDO/-AMO's can lead to some fun times. Not saying the NAO/AO/PNA didn't play any roles here but just wondering.

i think we'll be above average no matter the AMO phase is

:lol:

I'm sure we'll see periods again where we see more below-average than above-average...just might not be for another several years but we'll get there.

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i haven't had more than two consecutive below normal months for the past 5 years

It because its been pretty warm the past 5 years on the whole in the northeast. But if you are using your BY's inability to get more than 2 months in a row below average over a 5 year period as a statistically significant predictor for the general area going forward, that is laughable.

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It because its been pretty warm the past 5 years on the whole in the northeast. But if you are using your BY's inability to get more than 2 months in a row below average over a 5 year period as a statistically significant predictor for the general area going forward, that is laughable.

Do not know if he is using Trenton or not but Nov Dec Jan 10-11 were below.

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Yeah the connection between AMO phase and our summer temps is fairly strong.

For winter's though isn't there a strong connection between -PDO/-AMO and getting brutal cold/snowy winters? I think I remember reading stuff where during those brutal winters of the 1600's and 1700's research shows that -PDO/-AMO's can lead to some fun times. Not saying the NAO/AO/PNA didn't play any roles here but just wondering.

The '60s and 'first half of the '70s had -PDO/-AMO combo...and were mostly great winters. I don't know much about what the PDO was back in the 1600s and 1700s...we were in the LIA back then anyway so it was a lot colder than now in general.

The decadal AO/NAO pattern generally follows the PDO (though its not in perfect sync)...so that can also be a reason why when you get those combos, that the winters are good. They might be related somehow anyway, but we just don't understand it that much yet.

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Based on those temperatures, those four days would average -1.6 based on Storrs normals which are the coldest on that side of the state. Like I said last night, not a terribly impressive cold shot assuming the forecast holds. A solid cold shot in mid-September should bring 40s down to the water with your area into the upper-30s.

Thank you.....i guess if im wrong he will let everyone know about it....but it is what it is....see if bdr can get into 40's....either way humidity going away..thank god

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Seattle is the new West Chesterfield

We have been warm the last 5 years here and the AMO correlates to warm summers pretty well. Obviously some sort of AGW signal is there over the last 30 years or more....but you don't get these crazy numbers from AGW alone. We had a heck of a feedback in the Plains this year which probably helped the East Coast heat. That can be pinned on last winter and also...the big vortex in AK which was aided by Indo convection and a solar connection.

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