forkyfork Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 i am hoping with every bone in my body that winter is warm and snow-free... seeing unhappy snowmongers (from any region) is better than getting some snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 i am hoping with every bone in my body that winter is warm and snow-free... seeing unhappy snowmongers (from any region) is better than getting some snow You are an interesting dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 7, 2012 Author Share Posted September 7, 2012 Any storms today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 i am hoping with every bone in my body that winter is warm and snow-free... seeing unhappy snowmongers (from any region) is better than getting some snow our best bet is for this nino event to weaken to a la nada while a strong pac jet overwhelms the pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 i am hoping with every bone in my body that winter is warm and snow-free... seeing unhappy snowmongers (from any region) is better than getting some snow Hahahahahaha Yes hilarious! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 i am hoping with every bone in my body that winter is warm and snow-free... seeing unhappy snowmongers (from any region) is better than getting some snow I endorse this message. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 That is going to be a nice air mass early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Looks like a real taste of fall weather coming sun-tuesday...all three days look below avg....going to feel nice They do? mid 70s here next week is average, as forecasted all three days look dead nuts average, nothing at ALL below normal. Each time I hear about a cool regime it never materializes and here we are once again, well above normal.....and adding to it the next two days. Things go above normal again later next week, its relentless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Have a fantastic Friday everyone, time to hit the dirt, glorious day as the best summer ever part II rolls on, unabated, unmatched and overpowering. May God Bless You, and May God Bless The United States Of America. *Paid for by the Fellowship For the Advancement Of Global Warming* and...........Fellowship Of The Flame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Sounds like Saturday and Saturday night could be interesting or slightly so, with strong winds...30-40mph out of the south ahead of the front, then maybe gusts to 50mph in an embedded squall line with the front? This is usually a set up that could bring high winds to BTV area due to orographic funneling up the valley. Eitherway, like Coastalwx, I love these fall FROPAs because they seem to pack so much more of a punch in a synoptic way. From BTV: Several concerns with this system. First is wind...increasing out of the south during the day Saturday as low deepens and p-gradient increases. Looking for south winds 20-30 miles per hour most sections during Saturday afternoon in advance of precipitation...then lowering some with planetary boundary layer stabilization in the valleys once rain begins. Gusts 30-40 miles per hour possible Saturday afternoon. Sustained winds S 20-30 kts across Lake Champlain 15-00z and would anticipate a lake Wind Advisory for Saturday. Also concerned about strong dynamic forcing and some instability that we could see an embedded narrow squall line within rain shield that would be associated with a strong westerly wind shift as front comes through Saturday evening. A bit early to say and surface low is lifting away to the NE...but borderline severe winds (50 mph) are possible with the convective line if things come together with strong isallobaric gradient and associated instability and strong positive vorticity advection aloft. We/ll need to watch for that...especially across the northern Adirondacks...St. Lawrence Valley...and northwestern Vermont with track of 500mb vorticity maximum. Will highlight in severe weather potential statement at this point. With precipitable water values 1.5-1.75 along front...anticipate period of moderate to heavy rainfall for several hours near front. The cold front is moving along a bit faster in 00z guidance...so rainfall amts generally 0.5-1" (less than previously fcst). This rain should help make up deficits built up over the Summer without any significant Hydro concerns." I like that we keep denting into the summer rain deficits...that's good news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 They do? mid 70s here next week is average, as forecasted all three days look dead nuts average, nothing at ALL below normal. Each time I hear about a cool regime it never materializes and here we are once again, well above normal.....and adding to it the next two days. Things go above normal again later next week, its relentless. Taking in the overnight lows, I think we come in slightly below for early next week, Semantics though really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 They do? mid 70s here next week is average, as forecasted all three days look dead nuts average, nothing at ALL below normal. Each time I hear about a cool regime it never materializes and here we are once again, well above normal.....and adding to it the next two days. Things go above normal again later next week, its relentless. It may never be below normal again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 It may never be below normal again! Nope. Soon the lakes will boil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 It may never be below normal again! LOL...the forecast up here is solidly below normal by 5-10F early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Monday into Tuesday morning looks chilly. 4-7C at 850 NW-SE in New England as that through sits overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Any storms today? You need more storms after yesterdays storms "swinged through the region"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 i am hoping with every bone in my body that winter is warm and snow-free... seeing unhappy snowmongers (from any region) is better than getting some snow That would be awesome and produce some Three Mile Island type meltdowns on this board that would be fun to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Nope. Soon the lakes will boil. There's no denying we've been torchy for the last few years, but it isn't like this is GW related. The planet hasn't warmed 3F in 3 years. We're just in a funk. Regardless, M-W should avg slightly below for most of the interior. I guess the wildcard is near the LI sound sauna. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 There's no denying we've been torchy for the last few years, but it isn't like this is GW related. The planet hasn't warmed 3F in 3 years. We're just in a funk. Regardless, M-W should avg slightly below for most of the interior. I guess the wildcard is near the LI sound sauna. This is below average next week. Our average is 66, LL do the math. Monday Sunny, with a high near 71. Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 46. Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 72. Tuesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 49. Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 76. Wednesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 54. Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 79. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Hoping for below normal wx seems almost futile at this point. Just give me a few months near normal and I should get some decent snow events. I endorse this message. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 This is below average next week. Our average is 66, LL do the math. Monday Sunny, with a high near 71. Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 46. Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 72. Tuesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 49. Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 76. Wednesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 54. Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 79. Based on those temperatures, those four days would average -1.6 based on Storrs normals which are the coldest on that side of the state. Like I said last night, not a terribly impressive cold shot assuming the forecast holds. A solid cold shot in mid-September should bring 40s down to the water with your area into the upper-30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Based on those temperatures, those four days would average -1.6 based on Storrs normals which are the coldest on that side of the state. Like I said last night, not a terribly impressive cold shot assuming the forecast holds. A solid cold shot in mid-September should bring 40s down to the water with your area into the upper-30s. my average is 66, no one said cold shot just below normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Based on those temperatures, those four days would average -1.6 based on Storrs normals which are the coldest on that side of the state. Like I said last night, not a terribly impressive cold shot assuming the forecast holds. A solid cold shot in mid-September should bring 40s down to the water with your area into the upper-30s. Baby steps. Possible 1st frost (outside of MWN) for the usual NNE locations - BML, HIE, HUL. Nothing particularly noteworthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 i am hoping with every bone in my body that winter is warm and snow-free... seeing unhappy snowmongers (from any region) is better than getting some snow Today's special, 2 for 1 day............. :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 It may never be below normal again! CT will sizzle right thru next april Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Based on those temperatures, those four days would average -1.6 based on Storrs normals which are the coldest on that side of the state. Like I said last night, not a terribly impressive cold shot assuming the forecast holds. A solid cold shot in mid-September should bring 40s down to the water with your area into the upper-30s. FWIW, my 27 year smoothed average temps for 9/9, 10 & 11 are 74/51, 73/51 & 73/50. Based on my PNC of 71/48, 69/44 & 70/48, I should average -3.6 for the three days including about 6° cooler than average on 9/10. That's not too impressive, but definately a nice change from the +1-2° departures we have been seeing. Wednesday looks above normal again which would skew the data. I do think that some spots have their first shots at temps in the upper 30s Monday night. Storrs, Willimantic or KTOL will NOT be one of those stations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Once the AMO switches phases we'll probably start to see more months/seasons that are below-average than above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Baby steps. Possible 1st frost (outside of MWN) for the usual NNE locations - BML, HIE, HUL. Nothing particularly noteworthy. SLK has already hit 32F...maybe upper 20s for them while the rest hit mid/upper 30s? May have a chance at upper 30s here...42F is the lowest so far this fall. Also frost chances in NE VT spots like Island Pond, Sutton, etc that have already been in the 30s a couple times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Monday night is going to be pretty chilly in the usual elevated valleys...or hell, even some of the lower valleys that radiate well. Don't see any shot at frost in SNE but won't be surprised if a few spots come in with lower 40s or even around 40F. Its still a bit early for the first frost in SNE anyway...usually the cold spots see it around the 15-20th on average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Once the AMO switches phases we'll probably start to see more months/seasons that are below-average than above Its most notable in the summer and fall here. It doesn't affect our winter temps too much. But there's a very high correlation between the AMO and our summers up here. The coolest AMO years within the current positive phase were 2000 and 2009...both had much cooler summers here. The PDO has a higher correlation to winter here but still not that great. Winter is just dominated by the NAO/AO/PNA while summer is more suscpetible to the others because the AO/NAO have much less influence in the summer with the jets much weaker and further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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