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Wake Me Up When September Ends / Banter thread


Damage In Tolland

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I'm not sold on that. Marginal setup, unless that cold front moves in faster. 12z NAM keeps the activity west and ECMWF is slower too. Doesn't look good.

The dynamics involved with this system should compensate for any instability loss we see but even still at 0z models have between 1000-1500 Cape with fairly low LI values. The line should be kept intact due to strong forcing, although the line will likely break apart as it approaches western sections but we should still see some isolated severe weather and certainly can't rule out the potential for a brief spin-up in any broken line segments.

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The dynamics involved with this system should compensate for any instability loss we see but even still at 0z models have between 1000-1500 Cape with fairly low LI values. The line should be kept intact due to strong forcing, although the line will likely break apart as it approaches western sections but we should still see some isolated severe weather and certainly can't rule out the potential for a brief spin-up in any broken line segments.

Thats what we said a couple months ago when we had a Moderate Risk from SPC and we got nothing......now we only have a See Text and we are still trying to talk ourselves into it. That day where we had a Moderate Risk and nothing came of it left a few scars with me and I learned quite a few lessons from it.

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Thats what we said a couple months ago when we had a Moderate Risk from SPC and we got nothing......now we only have a See Text and we are still trying to talk ourselves into it. That day where we had a Moderate Risk and nothing came of it left a few scars with me and I learned quite a few lessons from it.

We had issues that day I believe with rising heights and capping which completely did us in.

This go around we have pretty decent height falls with zero capping. Plus, forcing here will be much stronger. While we may not see much severe weather here I think we could still see a pretty decent perhaps broken squall line moving through with gusty winds and isolated pockets of wind damage...would have to watch for rotation as well given high helicity.

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