weatherwiz Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 Looks like some real weak broad llvl rotation around Bethel...storm top on that cell up around 30K so certainly just high enough to be tapping into the high helicity. Unlikely to do anything but fun to watch Died off in 2 scans! This is what we'll pretty much see with any convection through mid-morning or so. Might get some weakly rotating cells which last for a few scans or so, especially if any tops can get above 25-30K or so. mid-level flow is a bit meh so that's one major limiting factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 Had a few flashes of lightning along with the accompanying thunder. Just low rolling rumbles though, nothing too exciting. Rained pretty hard as well and had some random gusts to like 8 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 2nd round of some thunder/lightning coming through! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 Thunder woke the kids up. Had a cell strenghthen a bit right on top of us. Had about a half dozen decent cracks and rumbles...about passed now. Comfy night out...77/74 at HVN at the 3am on. Thank God for AC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 This batch has some better lighting/thunder...suspect probably some CG's...thunder a bit more impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 Strong mlvl and ulvl winds would have made tonight and the AM a bit more interesting...some tops have gotten to decent heights but just not much speed shear once you get above 800mb or so and winds in the 500-200mb level are more unidirectional with the directional shear more below these levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 Well the predawn showers/tstms came through as we mentioned. Saw a little lightning on my way in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 screw the leaves...kill the bugs. Bring on a hard freeze What a bust of a "heavy rainfall" forecast. Have picked up .44" for the system so far with a heavy but narrow (and final?) line just passing through. If this were winter I'd go apesh*t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 These setups are always very difficult to predict in terms of widespread rainfall b/c unless you have a widespread rain shield there will be alot of shafted rainfall totals. We've been dealing with more in the way of clusters of heavy rainfall and even training across the same areas...just all depends on where the best lift/forcing is located along with other microscale features. Given this models of course are going to struggle and will usually just spit out high QPF totals over a widespread area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 These setups are always very difficult to predict in terms of widespread rainfall b/c unless you have a widespread rain shield there will be alot of shafted rainfall totals. We've been dealing with more in the way of clusters of heavy rainfall and even training across the same areas...just all depends on where the best lift/forcing is located along with other microscale features. Given this models of course are going to struggle and will usually just spit out high QPF totals over a widespread area. The low also went further north, so the best frontogenic forcing is along and north of the warm front....NNE. I mentioned that possibility a few days ago because climo supports that track. So like you said, we are left with hit and miss downpours. Still some more to go through today which favors eastern areas and pike south I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 The low also went further north, so the best frontogenic forcing is along and north of the warm front....NNE. I mentioned that possibility a few days ago because climo supports that track. So like you said, we are left with hit and miss downpours. Still some more to go through today which favors eastern areas and pike south I think. Yeah eastern areas are getting a fairly good soaking and south of the Pike we continue to see scattered development ongoing and this will continue until the front passes. The atmosphere is real juiced so rainfall rates will be pretty intense for anyone who gets them so if someone has only had like 0.3'' so far they could still easily end up with over 1'' total. Atmosphere still fairly unstable so as the front continues to approach and lift increases from that we'll probably see even more development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 Stuff is moving right along so should be out of here by noon in most areas. Maybe SE CT into RI and SE MA has best chance of firing up a tstm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 Enjoy the dews, they are here to stay through Saturday Night at least. Luckily, today is the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 Enjoy the dews, they are here to stay through Saturday Night at least. Luckily, today is the worst. This is why ac should stay in windows until October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 This is why ac should stay in windows until October. Fired mine up last night again. I had my A/C running into October last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 Good news is that we will have a nice cool shot come in late weekend and early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 5, 2012 Author Share Posted September 5, 2012 Where are the tor's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 Where are the tor's? In your dreams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 Well I'm off to bed...hopefully it isn't raining out when I wake up at 1...have to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 Good tstm moving into BOS now. Traffic fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 5, 2012 Author Share Posted September 5, 2012 Stuff is moving right along so should be out of here by noon in most areas. Maybe SE CT into RI and SE MA has best chance of firing up a tstm. Where are Noyes damaging storms between 12:00-3:00? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 Well, looks like the fat lady's singing here. Ended up with .53 with some breaks in the clouds. Did have some thunder as the final line pushed through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 5, 2012 Author Share Posted September 5, 2012 Good news is that we will have a nice cool shot come in late weekend and early next week. Lower dews yes..not so sure about any cooler air..Looks normal to slightly above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 Lower dews yes..not so sure about any cooler air..Looks normal to slightly above It's a cool shot. Not like 60s for highs here or anything, but I think it will have normal to a bit below for highs here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 Where are Noyes damaging storms between 12:00-3:00? Stuff is done in your area in before noon I think, unless the front stalls. Best chance for thunder is probably srn and ern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 5, 2012 Author Share Posted September 5, 2012 Stuff is done in your area in before noon I think, unless the front stalls. Best chance for thunder is probably srn and ern areas. This whole event has blown. No flooding rains..very little thunder/lightning..and now no storms at all for anyone until maybe Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 This whole event has blown. No flooding rains..very little thunder/lightning..and now no storms at all for anyone until maybe Friday. Most of ern MA will probably have 1-2" with maybe 2"+ in some spots, so not bad here. Have thunder now too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 5, 2012 Author Share Posted September 5, 2012 Most of ern MA will probably have 1-2" with maybe 2"+ in some spots, so not bad here. Have thunder now too. Blows..compared to what some were calling for with flooding and tor's this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 Blows..compared to what some were calling for with flooding and tor's this morning Nobody said that with any confidence at all. if you recall, we mentioned instability as being low this morning. There still may be some gusty storms that fire this morning in spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 5, 2012 Author Share Posted September 5, 2012 Nobody said that with any confidence at all. if you recall, we mentioned instability as being low this morning. There still may be some gusty storms that fire this morning in spots. Sunny Saturday and washout Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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