gymengineer Posted September 2, 2012 Share Posted September 2, 2012 What more can be done??? I don't know what the local media was saying (so it's entirely possible they were downplaying, I'm not sure) but the products from the NWS and the evacuations seemed spot on to me. The initial mandatory evacuations did not cover every area that eventually received a mandatory evacuation (the ones issued during the peak conditions of the storm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted September 2, 2012 Share Posted September 2, 2012 Well... Enough with these trivial life-and-death topics. Did you like my chase? Haha! Yes, incredible experience. You know, when I used to make up hurricane scenarios (pretending to be a newscaster), I would always gravitate towards imaginary hurricanes that stalled over us, putting us in the eyewall for hours. Frances used to be the epitome in that scenario... Now it's Isaac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 2, 2012 Share Posted September 2, 2012 Haha! Yes, incredible experience. You know, when I used to make up hurricane scenarios (pretending to be a newscaster), I would always gravitate towards imaginary hurricanes that stalled over us, putting us in the eyewall for hours. Frances used to be the epitome in that scenario... Now it's Isaac. Thank you. It's funny you mentioned Frances. A while back, a chaser mentioned being in Frances's eye for 7 hr and I found that inconceivable-- I just couldn't get my head around that. Now I've had that experience, too. To wrap up this conversation, because I'm heading out... We may disagree, but I see your points and I think it was a good debate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted September 2, 2012 Share Posted September 2, 2012 Thank you. It's funny you mentioned Frances. A while back, a chaser mentioned being in Frances's eye for 7 hr and I found that inconceivable-- I just couldn't get my head around that. Now I've had that experience, too. To wrap up this conversation, because I'm heading out... We may disagree, but I see your points and I think it was a good debate. Likewise.. Nothing wrong with debating on a board and it's done respectfully. Take care! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted September 2, 2012 Share Posted September 2, 2012 Agreed-- except I still think the SS scale has value and should be kept. My impression, being on the ground in LA, is that the threat was well-communicated and well-heeded. Let's think about this. There are 4 main impacts that a hurricane produces: wind, surge, rainfall/freshwater flooding, and tornadoes. In order, those impacts are along the lines of: 1) Rainfall/freshwater flooding 2) Surge 3) Wind 4) Tornadoes The SS scale uses wind because it's easily quantifiable in real-time, at least compared to the other impacts. But now with the use of IKE, we can quantify the approximate impact of storm size and intensity together. The SS scale is completely outdated, both for public consumption and for scientific record keeping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 2, 2012 Share Posted September 2, 2012 Let's think about this. There are 4 main impacts that a hurricane produces: wind, surge, rainfall/freshwater flooding, and tornadoes. In order, those impacts are along the lines of: 1) Rainfall/freshwater flooding 2) Surge 3) Wind 4) Tornadoes The SS scale uses wind because it's easily quantifiable in real-time, at least compared to the other impacts. But now with the use of IKE, we can quantify the approximate impact of storm size and intensity together. The SS scale is completely outdated, both for public consumption and for scientific record keeping. I am thinking about it. Until a hurricane ceases to be a wind storm and is classified some other way and not max sustained winds, I'm comfortable with my level of thinking about it. P.S. Not sure how you came up with that order of impacts. Andrew and Charley were almost completely wind events. Also, while storm surge is the biggest threat in SE LA, it isn't so in other areas. Let's not broadbrush. OK, now I really gotta go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 2, 2012 Share Posted September 2, 2012 Agreed-- except I still think the SS scale has value and should be kept. My impression, being on the ground in LA, is that the threat was well-communicated and well-heeded. I'm fine with it being kept... I just would make an effort to play down its importance in education, outreach, and public statements. Statements/forecasts should be totally impact based. The NWS does some things quite poorly and other things quite well. Their move to impact based forecasts has been swift and commendable. They get it on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted September 2, 2012 Share Posted September 2, 2012 I am thinking about it. Until a hurricane ceases to be a wind storm and is classified some other way and not max sustained winds, I'm comfortable with my level of thinking about it. P.S. Not sure how you came up with that order of impacts. Andrew and Charley were almost completely wind events. Also, while storm surge is the biggest threat in SE LA, it isn't so in other areas, like SE FL. Let's now broadbrush. I'm sorry, I didn't mean for it to sound like you weren't. I just think that ranking a storm based off of what is (usually) it's third-highest overall impact is something we need to change. We have an alternative (the IKE-based values), and I think they need to take precident EDIT: As for the ordering, it's pretty well-known in meteorology that the two biggest threats to life in a hurricane are flooding and surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted September 2, 2012 Share Posted September 2, 2012 Plaquemines parish was under a mandatory evacuation. If people ignored that, then i have no doubt that they wouldnt be any more inclined to leave if we tinkered with the hurricane scale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 2, 2012 Share Posted September 2, 2012 I'm sorry, I didn't mean for it to sound like you weren't. I just think that ranking a storm based off of what is (usually) it's third-highest overall impact is something we need to change. We have an alternative (the IKE-based values), and I think they need to take precident EDIT: As for the ordering, it's pretty well-known in meteorology that the two biggest threats to life in a hurricane are flooding and surge. Thanks for clarifying. All I can do is restate my case: that when it comes to surge, someone along the shore needs one number-- the expected height of the surge in ft-- a meaningful value that they can compare to their elevation. With winds, broad categories make sense, since no one knows the exact speed at which structural failure will occur. All of this side, people just need to listen to the damn warnings. It was all clearly spelled out, and the evacuation orders were correct and on-target. At he end of the day, a warning system can't insure against every bit of stupid behavior that residents may exhibit. You can create any system or scale you want-- there are always going to be people who don't listen. Re: winds... Threats to life aside, many more people are actually affected by the winds. Look at Wilma: millions and millions of Floridians who weren't affected by water in any way were pounded by dangerous Cat-2 winds. That's just one example. I get that the surge and flooding have produced greater deaths historically, but let's not overstate it. The winds hit *everybody* in the stricken region. Everybody. And, once again: a hurricane is storm that's designated as such because it has sustained winds of a certain speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 2, 2012 Share Posted September 2, 2012 OK, now I really gotta go! Time for my run. Bye! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cory Posted September 2, 2012 Share Posted September 2, 2012 The advisories *expliciltly* warned of the great surge and rainfall threats, even in the opening sentences. If people are so dense that they're not going to listen to explicit, plain English, I'm not sure that some fancy new scale that warns of "Cat-5 rainfall" is going to help them. The NHC explicitly and adequately warmed people about this storm. Many of these are probably the same people who try to defy nature (as if it has the ability to care) by vowing to rebuild after their house "done got blowed down twice". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 I'm fine with it being kept... I just would make an effort to play down its importance in education, outreach, and public statements. Statements/forecasts should be totally impact based. The NWS does some things quite poorly and other things quite well. Their move to impact based forecasts has been swift and commendable. They get it on this one. Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 The media can go a long way in relaying the NHC forecasts much better. When you have the networks and TWC showing met after met standing in front of dangerous storms, showcasing high winds that really do not hurt them, it gives folks the idea that the storm is actually quite fun and fascinating. Meanwhile...they fail to focus on and showcase the hydro threats outlined in the official advisories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Interesting topic. The ulitimate goal is to save lives, and that does come with communication of threat => preparedness. Over the last 30 years, the general ability to communicate ANYTHING (including emergency preparedness) has progressed at warp speed (24 hr. cable news, WWW, social media, better local, state, federal emergency preparedness plans, etc.) I'd argue that any tweaking of the current warning systems (which would ultimately come with a new "learning period" at first) has a much smaller value (if any) than the ongoing improvements in our overall information dissemination techniques as described above. In Isaac's case, we had manadory evacuations in specific areas, and their local governments, weather services, and media specifically outlined why, yet there were reports that people remained behind...... Those people are just testing natual selection's option of "is there an advantage to humans having their brains devolve?".....and no matter what improvements are made (though the test group should shrink) that testing will always be ongoing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 No matter what, a large portion of the general public are stuck in the "it ain't gone be that bad! media bs!" mindset. Down here in the South, it's really bad. Hugo was supposedly a "fluke" speaking of which. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Down The Rabbit Hole Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 One thing that might help would be a standardization of FEMA's storm surge zones. Instead of having Category 1-5 surge zones, you'd have surge zones A through C, with A up to 10', B between 10' and 20', and C for 20' and higher. Storms could be reported as "Hurricane Isaac, a B-class Category 1 storm with surge up to 15' and sustained winds of up to 80 mph" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cajun Thunder Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 One thing that might help would be a standardization of FEMA's storm surge zones. Instead of having Category 1-5 surge zones, you'd have surge zones A through C, with A up to 10', B between 10' and 20', and C for 20' and higher. Storms could be reported as "Hurricane Isaac, a B-class Category 1 storm with surge up to 15' and sustained winds of up to 80 mph" The general public has enough of a problem with the difference between a watch and a warning. They aren't going to have a clue on three surge zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saltysenior Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 No matter what, a large portion of the general public are stuck in the "it ain't gone be that bad! media bs!" mindset. Down here in the South, it's really bad. Hugo was supposedly a "fluke" speaking of which. a lot of people fear that if they leave, looting would do more harm than a storm......tough deal leaving 90% of your possesions behind... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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