phil882 Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 How about the Canadian pines? And the Maritimes, too! Haha I was typing on my phone last night, so the autocorrect was working well it seems. Notice that Leslie doesn't seem to be in any state to intensify despite the fact the shear is decreasing. The system has done a number to its SST field, and as long as Leslie continues to be nearly stationary, its unlikely the system will intensify as robustly as most of the global models are indicating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 New 11am NHC track http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Haha I was typing on my phone last night, so the autocorrect was working well it seems. Notice that Leslie doesn't seem to be in any state to intensify despite the fact the shear is decreasing. The system has done a number to its SST field, and as long as Leslie continues to be nearly stationary, its unlikely the system will intensify as robustly as most of the global models are indicating. Ekman upwelling and mixing waves will be its downfall, the thermocline is shallow out there and only gets shallower towards Bermuda. It'll have no problem pulling up 20-24 °C water. I wonder if the GFS is even coupled with the ocean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Ekman upwelling and mixing waves will be its downfall, the thermocline is shallow out there and only gets shallower towards Bermuda. It'll have no problem pulling up 20-24 °C water. I wonder if the GFS is even coupled with the ocean? The GFS and ECMWF to my knowledge are not dynamically coupled with the ocean. From my understanding the "ocean" as seen by these models are merely a Reynolds weekly average that is not updated over the model integration. Thus, things like upwelling for vertical mixing of the ocean have little representation in the model fields nor how they might translate into the TC dynamics. Models like the GFDL and HWRF, however, are, and should provide a better gauge to storm intensity in regards to upwelling ect. dtk can provide a much better (and perhaps more correct) answer than myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 surf from leslie has already spread over 1000 miles NW. swell hitting bouys near nantucket is 5.6 ft @ 14.8 seconds. That's a powerful wave and will probably suprise a few boaters. (esp since as the swell begins to hit, it can be flat for 10-15 minutes , people assume there is no surf after being in water couple mins , and seeing nothing, then a set of 6-8 foot faces slams them, in short what a impressive wave maker, must have quite a fetch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 CHC just released a bulletin for the Atlantic Provinces. TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 1:01 PM ADT TUESDAY 4 SEPTEMBER 2012. --------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR: =NEW= ATLANTIC PROVINCES. FOR TROPICAL STORM LESLIE. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3:00 PM ADT WEDNESDAY. EARLY DISCUSSION REGARDING TROPICAL STORM LESLIE AND POSSIBLE INFLUENCE IN EASTERN CANADA. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ==DISCUSSION== THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE WILL BE MONITORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE THIS WEEK. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY AND INTENSIFY GRADUALLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. COMPUTER MODELS ARE PREDICTING LESLIE TO ONLY TRAVEL 500 KILOMETRES IN 4 DAYS WHICH IS BASICALLY A PERSON'S AVERAGE SPEED OF WALKING. WITH SUCH A SLOW SPEED OF TRAVEL AND THE FACT THAT THE STORM IS STILL IN ITS ORGANIZING STAGE, THERE IS MUCH (MORE THAN USUAL) UNCERTAINTY IN THE PREDICTED PATH/INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT WEEK. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT LESLIE COULD EVENTUALLY PUSH THROUGH THE LARGE 'BERMUDA HIGH' AND ACELLERATE TOWARD EASTERN CANADA WITH A RANGE OF TRACK SCENARIOS FROM MAINE TO OFFSHORE NEWFOUNDLAND. THE MIDDLE OF THESE TRACK FORECASTS IS OVER NEWFOUNDLAND - BUT EVEN THAT 'AVERAGE' WILL LIKELY SHIFT BY HUNDREDS OF KILOMETERS OVER TIME WITH EACH NEW RUN OF SIMULATIONS. IF LESLIE MAKES IT TO EASTERN CANADA, IT WOULD NOT LIKELY DO SO UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE WILL UPDATE THIS BULLETIN THROUGHOUT THE WEEK IF LESLIE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND WILL PROVIDE INTERPRETATION OF THE POSSIBLE SCENARIOS AND DEGREE OF PREDICTABILITY. VISIT WWW.WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE/TRACK_E.HTML (ALL IN LOWER CASE) FOR THE LATEST HURRICANE TRACK MAP. END/FOGARTY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 surf from leslie has already spread over 1000 miles NW. swell hitting bouys near nantucket is 5.6 ft @ 14.8 seconds. That's a powerful wave and will probably suprise a few boaters. (esp since as the swell begins to hit, it can be flat for 10-15 minutes , people assume there is no surf after being in water couple mins , and seeing nothing, then a set of 6-8 foot faces slams them, in short what a impressive wave maker, must have quite a fetch I was about 30 miles east of Nantucket yesterday. The swell already started to roll in by about 9am Monday. NOAA and the buoys have a good handle on it. Yesterday the SE wind helped to stack it even more it was pretty unpleasant for a few hours on the tide. Today the period is longer but the swell a bit higher, going to rock and roll out there for many, many days. We had some legitimate 5-6 footers yesterday and I see that's already occurring again today. There were several 25-27 foot boats out there that we'd almost lose entirely on the horizon between swells. Heed the advisories and stay home! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 12z gfs shows a cutoff noreaster for SNE. But Leslie is still out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 The GFS and ECMWF to my knowledge are not dynamically coupled with the ocean. From my understanding the "ocean" as seen by these models are merely a Reynolds weekly average that is not updated over the model integration. Thus, things like upwelling for vertical mixing of the ocean have little representation in the model fields nor how they might translate into the TC dynamics. Models like the GFDL and HWRF, however, are, and should provide a better gauge to storm intensity in regards to upwelling ect. dtk can provide a much better (and perhaps more correct) answer than myself. Correct.....all of the operational global NWP models are atmosphere only, and are not coupled to ocean models. The ocean is treated as a boundary condition only....where for the GFS, the SST is initialized daily and then relaxed toward a climatology (I think with an e-folding time of several days to a week, I need to check). We are working toward implementing a fully coupled ocean/atmosphere (and eventually land surface) model for the GFS (similar to what we run for the CFSv2 and CDAS). The seasonal Euro runs are similarly coupled to an ocean model (like the CFSv2). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ababa Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 surf from leslie has already spread over 1000 miles NW. swell hitting bouys near nantucket is 5.6 ft @ 14.8 seconds. That's a powerful wave and will probably suprise a few boaters. (esp since as the swell begins to hit, it can be flat for 10-15 minutes , people assume there is no surf after being in water couple mins , and seeing nothing, then a set of 6-8 foot faces slams them, in short what a impressive wave maker, must have quite a fetch On a cruise ship about 300 miles NW of Bermuda.....pretty tame so far (4-6' at best) but hoping for the ship to really be rocking on departure Friday around 5PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 I was about 30 miles east of Nantucket yesterday. The swell already started to roll in by about 9am Monday. NOAA and the buoys have a good handle on it. Yesterday the SE wind helped to stack it even more it was pretty unpleasant for a few hours on the tide. Today the period is longer but the swell a bit higher, going to rock and roll out there for many, many days. We had some legitimate 5-6 footers yesterday and I see that's already occurring again today. There were several 25-27 foot boats out there that we'd almost lose entirely on the horizon between swells. Heed the advisories and stay home! bouy reports and direction show this was mostly kirk's swell abating (it was more due Easterly in nature) it can be identified as kirk's by the period and direction the period is longer today because the first of leslie's swell (originating from further away) is hitting the bouys near nantucket and SNE and the waters off maine/ maritimes. this period will drop into the 13 second range later. yes it is going to rock and roll swell wise for several days , alot of the swell energy is focused NNW of the storm center as it would appear the best fetch of higher winds are in in the E quadrant with screamin SSE winds for a good fetch for the last several days pointin right at RI/ Cape cod/ Maine. 50-60 mph winds can create very large ocean waves when the fetch and duration is significant. just ask hawaii Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Critically important Euro run, and the Raleigh site is slow. I blame the Europeans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Critically important Euro run, and the Raleigh site is slow. I blame the Europeans. West of Bermuda over the weekend, then a direct hit on Newfoundland Monday night/Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 PRE event almost gets to Cape Cod, may brush Northern coastal Maine, per Canadian. If I lived in New England, I'd count that as having lived through Leslie if it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Euro is a lot like the Canadian. On a side note, a new burst of convection has erupted just west of the center. Best organization in days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Euro is a lot like the Canadian. So does it hit Nova Scotia or not? Hard to tell with the 24 hour time steps available to us mere mortals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 So does it hit Nova Scotia or not? Hard to tell with the 24 hour time steps available to us mere mortals. Comes within about 100 miles then barrels into Newfoundland at about 960 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Yep, couldn't be more elegantly designed to incur torment and teasing to any EC storm enthusiasts. Perfect frustration - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Decent convection over the LLC for the first time in days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 I was about 30 miles east of Nantucket yesterday. The swell already started to roll in by about 9am Monday. NOAA and the buoys have a good handle on it. Yesterday the SE wind helped to stack it even more it was pretty unpleasant for a few hours on the tide. Today the period is longer but the swell a bit higher, going to rock and roll out there for many, many days. We had some legitimate 5-6 footers yesterday and I see that's already occurring again today. There were several 25-27 foot boats out there that we'd almost lose entirely on the horizon between swells. Heed the advisories and stay home! Indeed, heed the advisories. Surges of 6'-9' swells through the week: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/wavewatch/page/web/tcww3.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 12Z Euro shifts well east, no more SE cutoff low to drive Leslie westward and instead that feature is replaced by a progressive trough. The west shifts are over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Correct.....all of the operational global NWP models are atmosphere only, and are not coupled to ocean models. The ocean is treated as a boundary condition only....where for the GFS, the SST is initialized daily and then relaxed toward a climatology (I think with an e-folding time of several days to a week, I need to check). We are working toward implementing a fully coupled ocean/atmosphere (and eventually land surface) model for the GFS (similar to what we run for the CFSv2 and CDAS). The seasonal Euro runs are similarly coupled to an ocean model (like the CFSv2). Excellent example of how even our most high-tech global models can't capture intrinsic non-linearities of the atmosphere-ocean system. The state of the atmosphere depends on the state of the ocean, but the state of the ocean depends on the state of the atmosphere, and the GFS can't handle that. Will be excited to see how coupling changes the GFS' accuracy, I imagine it'll be a major improvement in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 CHC just released a bulletin for the Atlantic Provinces. Chris Fogarty knows his Canadian 'Canes. Great guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Chris Fogarty knows his Canadian 'Canes. Great guy. Yes Chirs is good people. I feel good knowing he is on the case as we wait to see what Leslie is going to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 18z GFS is a tad east, just bypassing Bermuda to the east. It's looking more likely that Bermuda will see a hurricane passing very close by. My current assessment is high end cat 2 within 80 miles from Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Looking better on microwave this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Could be an historic hit for bermuda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Could be an historic hit for bermuda It's difficult for a storm to become historic for bermudians. My guess is a cat 3 over or <50mi west of Bermuda could be up there. A cat 2 < than 80mi to the west or <50mi to the east could be very disruptive, though. Those are just some rough assessments... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 It's difficult for a storm to become historic for bermudians. My guess is a cat 3 over or <50mi west of Bermuda could be up there. A cat 2 < than 80mi to the west or <50mi to the east could be very disruptive, though. Those are just some rough assessments... Some Bermudians I talked with were actually more frightened by Emily (1987) than by Fabian (2003). While only a high end Cat 1...it was a rapidly intensifying, very fast moving, microcane with embedded tornadoes. It was also a surprise...and it's major effect lasted only about an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Historic is a tough word...Bermuda hurricanes of 1899 (pressure of 939mb recorded), and 1839 (surge of 11 ft) may be have stronger than Fabian. edit: 1926 Havana-Bermuda is also a candidate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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