Riptide Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 18z GFS 850mb Vort - Ensemble Spread, some decent indirect effects for New England and a decent shift west from 12z. http://tinyurl.com/9c4x5wr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Evening odds for Leslie directly making landfall in SNE (Cape Cod).......1 in a 1000........too low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Evening odds for Leslie directly making landfall in SNE (Cape Cod).......1 in a 1000........too low? If the euro stays the same or comes west at 0z, you should raise those odds to 1 in 100, 1 in 25 for Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 If the euro stays the same or comes west at 0z, you should raise those odds to 1 in 100, 1 in 25 for Canada. I honestly meant to put "Evening" odds!!! Didn't realize I put morning till now. Screwed up because it is always "morning line" or "morning favorite" But I agree, if the Euro holds serve then the odds will increase significantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Before automatically dismissing movement back Eastward, looking at both vis imagery through sunset and false color IR imagery, there is a definite circulation in the convection SE of the LLC, and a center reformation to the East and Southeast seems a definite possibility. Wouldn't get it back to 60ºW, but could get it close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 ^^ Not sure I can agree with that yet. In my opinion, the center is still on the NW end of the convection due to heavy shearing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 ^^ Not sure I can agree with that yet. In my opinion, the center is still on the NW end of the convection due to heavy shearing. The LLC was located Northwest of the deep convection at sun down. Probably still is. But the convection is quite vigorous, and has suggestion of its own circulation. What I was saying, I don't think it is impossible the LLC visible at sundown doesn't die overnight as a new LLC forms downshear under the storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Euro salmost always overdoes storms at this lattitude. It probably goes into a positive feedback loop when the outflow meetsup with the Jetstreak. In reality the Jetstresak may help the storm, but it will create some shear and displace the anticyclone so the intensity will be a lot weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 For what it's worth, the HWRF makes a direct hit on Bermuda @ 105 to 110 kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 From the shortwave IR, it looks the LLC may have drifted slightly east over the past 6 hours or so...but the convection is still located on it's SE flank. SHIPS has increased shear in the short term on the 00z cycle but intensification begins at 18 hours as shear relaxes. It now tops out at 91 kt at 108 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 For what it's worth, the HWRF makes a direct hit on Bermuda @ 105 to 110 kt. The Island may have adpted to handleing 75mph quite well but thats a little much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 0z gfs quite different compared to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 0z gfs quite different compared to 12z Just a 300 mile shift westward, not a big deal..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 GFS came in more west than previous runs. Leslie stays offshore though. Seems like there was more ridging on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 GFS looks like the Euro over the SE. However, the nrn stream is more progressive hence it still stays pretty far out to sea. GFS is also quite deep for the latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 GFS came in more west than previous runs. Leslie stays offshore though. Seems like there was more ridging on this run. The GFS now cuts off a part of the upper level trough over the Southeast United States with the entire height field over the Northeast US subsequently displaced farther north and west. To a less extreme extent than the 12z Euro from 9/3, but the idea is there. This allows Leslie to move more northwest as the Atlantic Ridge builds slightly farther north and west over the top of her. You can see the differences between the 18z/3 and the 00z/4 GFS very clearly when comparing the two here: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_0z/f144.gif http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_18z/f150.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 That cut-off has to go big negative for Leslie to even sniff the northeast. This pattern would cut it if it were in the Bahamas...but it's so far northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Still a +20c warm core to almost 50N! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 That cut-off has to go big negative for Leslie to even sniff the northeast. This pattern would cut it if it were in the Bahamas...but it's so far northeast. Yeah...her position at the time of the cutoff gives her very little chance to landfall on the East Coast. I would think, if the most anomalous solution happens...that she would be a threat to Eastern Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Looks like the 0z GGEM shifted east. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/495_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 The key player in this track evolution is not the impeding trough in the long range, but actually the mid level ridge in the 48-96 hour period. This again is the period where the GFS has had difficulty forecasting enough mid level ridging. We saw this with Isaac in the absence of an upper level trough and we are seeing it again with Leslie. While I still believe Leslie has a very low chance of affecting the US other than high surf... The threat for the Canadian maritimes and Bermuda has increased substancially. I do think that both the GFS and ECMWF are over forecasting intensity. Upwelling has got to be occurring in such a low OHC environment over the next 72 hours and that's something none of the global models will have a good handle on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 00z European is pretty much consistent with its 12 Z run. This definitely puts the Nova Scotia area in play...This is definitely west of the GFS as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 The key player in this track evolution is not the impeding trough in the long range, but actually the mid level ridge in the 48-96 hour period. This again is the period where the GFS has had difficulty forecasting enough mid level ridging. We saw this with Isaac in the absence of an upper level trough and we are seeing it again with Leslie. While I still believe Leslie has a very low chance of affecting the US other than high surf... The threat for the Canadian marigolds and Bermuda has increased substancially. I do think that both the GFS and ECMWF are over forecasting intensity. Upwelling has got to be occurring in such a low OHC environment over the next 72 hours and that's something none of the global models will have a good handle on. How about the Canadian pines? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 How about the Canadian pines? And the Maritimes, too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Good Morning America went with "Leslie set to affect entire east coast" this morning. Of course they ended up referring to high surf and rip currents, but it's still a poor lead in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Evening odds for Leslie directly making landfall in SNE (Cape Cod).......1 in a 1000........too low? So you are saying there is a chance! And in the mode of providing something productive: Here is a list of Hurricanes and other storms and there impact on Bermuda. http://www.bermuda-attractions.com/bermuda_00014c.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 So you are saying there is a chance! And in the mode of providing something productive: Here is a list of Hurricanes and other storms and there impact on Bermuda. http://www.bermuda-a...muda_00014c.htm I posted my 1 in a 1000 on facebook as well and someone did the same exact thing to me lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 06Z GFS, landfall in extreme eastern Cananda at ~ hr 162 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 So the Euro is a tad east and the GFS a good deal west... and it looks that Leslie is going to bypass Bermuda to the west...who would have thought that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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