Quincy Posted September 2, 2012 Share Posted September 2, 2012 Bermuda gets the right quad of the center on the 12z ECMWF by 126 hours. Looks very Fabian-ish Good comparison. Obviously, Fabian was considerably stronger. The western edge of guidance looks a lot like Bill from 2009, as that storm passed just outside the 40/70 benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 2, 2012 Share Posted September 2, 2012 Too much error involved at this range to forecast anything in my opinion, all we know for now is that it will move slowly over the open Atlantic south of Bermuda for 5 days and probably intensify. Whether it gets whisked out to sea by a trough or a ridge builds in to the north and pushes it into the east coast remains to be seen. It's definitely early and the pattern could support it if it were further west, but the storm longitude may be the issue I think. I suppose the only way it "could" threaten is if it remains disorganized and on a more westerly course. I just don't see this other than a tease, but it's early I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 2, 2012 Share Posted September 2, 2012 Very similar to the Katia-Lee event last year. Wonder if PA gets flooded again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 2, 2012 Share Posted September 2, 2012 It's definitely early and the pattern could support it if it were further west, but the storm longitude may be the issue I think. I suppose the only way it "could" threaten is if it remains disorganized and on a more westerly course. I just don't see this other than a tease, but it's early I guess. There are a few systems that have gone on to impact land farther west when passing through the current location that Leslie is. However, the simple terms explanation presently is the accuracy of the ridge strength set to flex for 48 hours N of Bermuda ~. That feature is really more of a s/w ridge; it's progressive and rolls over top and is actually replaced with neutral height field out in time. In that 48 window, the westerly runs appear to have strong heights - the CMC typically does overdue ridge strengths in that D5 and beyond. The model consensus should suffice for the time being, as accounting for that would pull a track conceptually back east, while it also seems a bit too agressive to take the TC directly through the heights while they are rising - that seems a bit erroneous the other way. Bermuda? I tell you what, for such a small target the atmosphere's got a pretty good darting score on that island - haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted September 2, 2012 Share Posted September 2, 2012 Still have a hard time seeing this as anything close to an EC threat. Maybe I'm wrong. I'll tell you what, if the ECMWF verifies with that anomalous upper low over the Ohio Valley at days 6-7, I certainly would not say this is a zero threat to NOAM, particularly from Cape Cod to the Maritimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 I'll tell you what, if the ECMWF verifies with that anomalous upper low over the Ohio Valley at days 6-7, I certainly would not say this is a zero threat to NOAM, particularly from Cape Cod to the Maritimes. Think it's pretty close to zero threat for the EC, outside of a gusty shwr on Cape Cod and that is pushing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 I don't believe there's been a storm that has gotten to where Leslie is expected to be at day 3 to 5 and then hit the US East Coast. Even though the ridging is quite anomalous to the north of Leslie to Nova Scotia...it's still not even close to getting to the US East Coast...the storm just starts out way too north and east. Comparison to Fabian are meh given that Fabian was a strong Cat 4 Cape Verde storm in a classic recurvature accelerating to the north. Leslie is a slow mover, but it could be intensifying when it possibly affects Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 I don't believe there's been a storm that has gotten to where Leslie is expected to be at day 3 to 5 and then hit the US East Coast. Even though the ridging is quite anomalous to the north of Leslie to Nova Scotia...it's still not even close to getting to the US East Coast...the storm just starts out way too north and east. Comparison to Fabian are meh given that Fabian was a strong Cat 4 Cape Verde storm in a classic recurvature accelerating to the north. Leslie is a slow mover, but it could be intensifying when it possibly affects Bermuda. Yeah it's just too far east for the EC. No sense of hoping for anything more then swells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Both SSTs and 26C isotherm depth are above normal in the Sargasso Sea. So Leslie should encounter more favorable thermodynamic conditions than normal in that area. However, the upper level anticyclone and light shear conditions forecast by the global models in the medium range will have to verify in order to get significant intensification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 I don't understand the SHIPS intensity algorithm sometimes. Why is 3-5 kt of shear at 96 to 120 hrs actually considered a negative to intensity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 0z NOGAPS shifted at least 300+ miles west w/ track, since 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Yeah it's just too far east for the EC. No sense of hoping for anything more then swells. Including Canada? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 00z GGEM still gets pretty close to SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 00z UKMET also looks west from 12 Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 oh brother lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Including Canada? I think the Maritimes could see some direct impact from Leslie. The east coast is unlikely to see much of anything besides swells. The storm is hundreds of miles too far east even with a favorable synoptic setup to get a hurricane up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Still pretty wide right on those deceiving maps. Bermuda could be in trouble, and rain flooding possible if the pre verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongIslandHurricanes Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 I don't believe there's been a storm that has gotten to where Leslie is expected to be at day 3 to 5 and then hit the US East Coast. Even though the ridging is quite anomalous to the north of Leslie to Nova Scotia...it's still not even close to getting to the US East Coast...the storm just starts out way too north and east. Comparison to Fabian are meh given that Fabian was a strong Cat 4 Cape Verde storm in a classic recurvature accelerating to the north. Leslie is a slow mover, but it could be intensifying when it possibly affects Bermuda. NHC day 3-5 forecated positions and storms that were at that position Day 3--- 27.6, -62.9 Day 4--- 28.7, -63.3 Day 5--- 30.8, -64.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 NHC day 3-5 forecated positions and storms that were at that position Day 3--- 27.6, -62.9 Day 4--- 28.7, -63.3 Day 5--- 30.8, -64.1 cool graphics, so there's been a couple. What storm is the one that hit NC after being just south of Bermuda? Must have been a hell of ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongIslandHurricanes Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 cool graphics, so there's been a couple. What storm is the one that hit NC after being just south of Bermuda? Must have been a hell of ridge. think that was Ginger 1971, or Diane 1955 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongIslandHurricanes Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 think that was Ginger 1971, or Diane 1955 it was gignger, but she was moving wsw at that time after she made it across half the atlantic moving ene and turned back to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 it was gignger, but she was moving wsw at that time after she made it across half the atlantic moving ene and turned back to the west. This is consistent with the idea that direction of movement at that point is quite crucial as opposed to just the location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 The NHC has not acknowledged that the GFS brings Leslie back to 60W in their discussions, and we are within 12 hours of the forecasted movement to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 12z CMC (9/3/12) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Looks like the 12z GFS ensemble mean is slightly west of the op. Mean bypasses Bermuda close to 64W and is about 12 hours slower. Op looks more like 62.5W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Looks like the 12z GFS ensemble mean is slightly west of the op. Mean bypasses Bermuda close to 64W and is about 12 hours slower. Op looks more like 62.5W. My take is that if it bypasses Bermuda, it will be to the left, not to the right. Also, it looks like it will be a highly disruptive hurricane for Bermuda, due to it's big size and slow motion, probably more disruptive than Igor if the track is less than 80 miles from Bermuda...sort of like Isaac, but potentially stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Interesting how each set of runs continues to tick west. Still need to pay close attn on the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Euro goes cat 5 near Bermuda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Euro goes cat 5 near Bermuda 850mb winds are 118 knots, which would mix down to about 109mph at the surface. Strong cat 2/marginal cat 3. (144 hours) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 850mb winds are 118 knots, which would mix down to about 109mph at the surface. Strong cat 2/marginal cat 3. (144 hours) Still further west - center ends up scraping the coast of Nova Scotia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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