Derecho! Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 0z GEFS Spaghetti plots are more enthusiastic about a potential landfall threat. Yep, they all sort of stall around Bermuda, and then explode away like a bunch of pool balls, with a variety hitting various points on the East Coast. Big big change in the ensembles from the previous 3-4 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 In the meantime, l might have been wrong about the ECMWF being too weak with intensity. Leslie is starting to decouple from its mid-level circulation as easterly shear is really giving it a beating tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurriplane Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 55knots as of 5am Pressure at 999mb moving WNW at 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 6z GFS FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 6z GFS FTW The 4-day stall will be astoundingly fun. How many "regular" and "banter" threads will we need? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geoffs Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 6z GFS FTW what do you mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 what do you mean? It stalls in the Atlantic for 4 days and then hits Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 Note that most of the northeasterly shear currently interacting with Leslie is also composing the upper-level easterly wind phase of the convectively-suppressed phase of an equatorial atmospheric convectively-coupled Kelvin wave currently over the western tropcial Atalntic. This analysis suggests that the tropical cyclone may struggle to intensify due to an unfavorable interaction with this Kelvin wave for the next couple of days. If intensification were to stall, might we be seeing a slight threat for downstream landfall? (red contours represent positive Kelvin filtered VP200 anomalies, or the suppressed phase of the CCKW; shading is trmm 3b43 rain rates; vectors are 200 hPa wind anomalies). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 I actually do think Leslie could be a threat in 7+ days, at least to NEw England. if you are interested I explain a little more in-depth here. http://www.examiner.com/article/tropical-storm-leslie-needs-to-be-watched In short, I think the Carolinas north should watch it, particularly Bermuda, New England and into the Maritimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 I actually do think Leslie could be a threat in 7+ days, at least to NEw England. if you are interested I explain a little more in-depth here. http://www.examiner....s-to-be-watched In short, I think the Carolinas north should watch it, particularly Bermuda, New England and into the Maritimes. Great, consise summary Allan. It'll be interesting to see what sort of interaction (if any) between the remnant weakness of Isaac and the progged westward moving cutoff have over the SE, and to what extent that has (if any) on the orientation of the building ridge in 5-6 days. In any case, there isn't much to diminish it's potential for further strengthening in the next day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 31, 2012 Author Share Posted August 31, 2012 I actually do think Leslie could be a threat in 7+ days, at least to NEw England. if you are interested I explain a little more in-depth here. http://www.examiner....s-to-be-watched In short, I think the Carolinas north should watch it, particularly Bermuda, New England and into the Maritimes. Very succinct, well read discussion. Sums up my musings as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 Wow today's 00Z Euro and 06Z GFS runs are pretty much the exact opposite of each others' 00Z Euro and 06Z GFS runs yesterday with the GFS now going over ME/NB/NS and the Euro over NL. With the way this year has gone so far, I suppose when in doubt... go with the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 just a little bigger than kirk https://p.twimg.com/A1oxjkcCQAArY3W.jpg:large Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 GFS ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 GFS ensembles Those are from the 0Z run, the 6Z run has even more members threatening the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 Those are from the 0Z run, the 6Z run has even more members threatening the US. 12z OP is east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 12z GFS shows the potential of this becoming a Juan-like scenario for Nova Scotia (at the moment, on Sep 10-11, would suggest a somewhat wider time window like 9th-13th). Would not rule out a run towards New England either. The buoys south of Bermuda report 31C SST today and Leslie will be moving slowly through that region in 4-6 days. It seems reasonable to anticipate a cat-4 intensity at some point during that period. Therefore Bermuda is very much threatened by a close encounter with a cat-3 storm around days 7-8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 12z OP is east It is also much slower than the 6z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 It is also much slower than the 6z run The key is the trough moving through the lakes, the 12z run is not nearly as amplified or as deep as the 06z run, which in turn doesn't pull Leslie as far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 12z GFS shows the potential of this becoming a Juan-like scenario for Nova Scotia (at the moment, on Sep 10-11, would suggest a somewhat wider time window like 9th-13th). Would not rule out a run towards New England either. The buoys south of Bermuda report 31C SST today and Leslie will be moving slowly through that region in 4-6 days. It seems reasonable to anticipate a cat-4 intensity at some point during that period. Therefore Bermuda is very much threatened by a close encounter with a cat-3 storm around days 7-8. I kinda doubt the likelihood of this, but if it were to happen...Fabian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 12z OP is east And so are the 12Z ensembles as well, less US threat now. Of course I bet the EC flops west now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 And so are the 12Z ensembles as well, less US threat now. Of course I bet the EC flops west now. Through T+93, it is in the exact same location as it was for the 00z run at T+105 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 The UW-NMS brings Leslie close to the northern Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico http://cup.aos.wisc.edu/cgi-bin/tcget.cgi?time=LESLIE12L.20120831_06&field=MSLP%2FWind&hour=Animate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 12z euro shows a fish storm that hits Nova Scotia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 12z euro shows a fish storm It's much weaker and less amplified with the trough moving down from Canada than the 06z GFS and even the 00z ECMWF, the only real chance of a TC hitting the US from that latitude/longitude would be if the trough dug deep enough to pull the cyclone towards the coast, ala 06z GFS. The 12z ECMWF is also noticably weaker in the long range than most of the other guidance. Edit: The 00z ECMWF had a closed low over SE Canada at hr 168, the 12z run is about 12 hours slower, it's a fish storm but not by much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 Both the 12Z Euro and GFS hit eastern Nova Scotia/Newfoundland. That's not a fish storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 UK Met has it turning from East of due North back to West of due North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 Both the 12Z Euro and GFS hit eastern Nova Scotia/Newfoundland. That's not a fish storm. Looks well south of Nova Scotia to me. The Euro that is. Maybe im wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 Looks well south of Nova Scotia to me. The Euro that is. Maybe im wrong? The 12Z Euro ends its forecast run not very far south of NS. Looking at the upper features, it is heading towards E NS or west central NL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 The 12Z Euro ends its forecast run not very far south of NS. Looking at the upper features, it is heading towards E NS or west central NL. Very good thanks. I'll be keeping a watch on things. Last thing we need is another Juan type storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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