HurricaneJosh Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 Leslie is a hurricane once again according to ATCF No dice, according to the 11 pm EDT package. Still 60 kt-- and not even tropical, really. Let's face it-- it's a nor'easter. Next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 Could spell trouble for Newfoundland. The province, and Nova Scotia, have been experiencing unprecedented flooding today with even more rain forecast due to the tropical storm. Entire towns are underwater with water rescues from peoples roof tops. Some areas have seen 3-5" with an addition 2-6" from Leslie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 If buoy 44139 (located at 44.2N 57.1W) is correct, then Leslie is likely significantly stronger than NHC thought: http://www.ndbc.noaa...p?station=44139 Pressure there has dropped from 998 mb to 973 mb past 3 hours, and the winds were 46 kt (gusting to 60 kt) past hour. Also, a ship at 45.4N 60W reported sustained 49 kt winds in the past hour: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?lat1=43.8N&lon1=56.8W&uom=E&dist=250&ot=A&time=12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 Justin, do those readings seem inconsistent with their estimate of 970 mb/60 kt? Those data seem about what I'd expect... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 NHC updated the pressure to 970 mb for the 2 AM advisory after seeing the buoy report. The 11 PM advisory had a pressure of 988 mb. Justin, do those readings seem inconsistent with their estimate of 970 mb/60 kt? Those data seem about what I'd expect... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 This will be one heck of a baroclinic Low. Any maps to post from the UK Met office with their forecasts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 Radar link for eastern Newfoundland: http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?id=WTP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 NHC updated the pressure to 970 mb for the 2 AM advisory after seeing the buoy report. The 11 PM advisory had a pressure of 988 mb. Ah, OK-- gotcha. Still, the winds seem pretty much what you'd expect. It's just a big N-Atlantic low at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 This will be one heck of a baroclinic Low. Any maps to post from the UK Met office with their forecasts? GFS showing some good bombogenesis as this crosses the Labrador Sea. Residents of southern Greenland are in for quite a storm, and then it's going to have significant impacts in Europe. Worst impacts crossing Newfoundland now probably, 70 mph wind gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 Latest obs from nfld. St. John's nfld wind 57mph sustained gusts to 70mph Long pond nfld wind 52mph sustained gusts to 77mph Not to shabby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 pretty much post-trop at this point. Love the loop and how Michael gets slapped in the process. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ATL/anim16ir.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 pretty much absolutely post-trop at this point. Love the loop and how Michael gets slapped in the process. http://www.meteo.psu...L/anim16ir.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 There have been reports and pics of severe damage in SE Newfoundland. Lots of sheds destroyed, roofs damaged/destroyed, and a few tractor-trailers overturned. Pics were all gathered from Twitter. Special thanks to Tim Ballisty from TWC for collecting many of the pics: sfy.co/h8fD New homes destroyed in Quidi Vidi neighborhood of St. John's: House destroyed, Pleasantville neighorhood - St John's: Home damage - Paradise: St John's Soccer Stadium Lights Down on Home - St John's: Corvette attacked by shed - St John's Shed damaged - Colliers: Shed destroyed - St John's: Deck collapse - Paradise: Patio damage - Mount Pearl: Walkway exploded - St John's: Walkway damage - St John's: Overturned track - Newtown: Overturned track - St John's: Roof damage - Mundy Pond: Roof damage to several homes - Mount Pearl: Gas pumps overturned - St. John's: Tree uprooted - St. John's: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 I normally roll my eyes at people complaining about the NHC for technical things like classifying or not classifying a swirl in the middle of nowhere, but this was a big goof. Off by 20 mb on the intensity of a landfalling storm? Someone should get fired for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 I normally roll my eyes at people complaining about the NHC for technical things like classifying or not classifying a swirl in the middle of nowhere, but this was a big goof. Off by 20 mb on the intensity of a landfalling storm? Someone should get fired for that. What data did the forecaster had at hand and what were the consequences of such goof? Did it pop some off guard ears? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 What data did the forecaster had at hand and what were the consequences of such goof? Did it pop some off guard ears? lol. You know all of those sensible weather predictions that went totally bust because the mslp estimate was off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 NHC updated the pressure to 970 mb for the 2 AM advisory after seeing the buoy report. The 11 PM advisory had a pressure of 988 mb. Since aircraft are used partly because Dvorak estimates can be an entire SS scale off, and NHC corrected the pressure with the buoy report, not sure why anyone would need firing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 Since aircraft are used partly because Dvorak estimates can be an entire SS scale off, and NHC corrected the pressure with the buoy report, not sure why anyone would need firing. It's not like they got the winds wrong either. They were using a standard P-W relationship in lieu of in situ obs (T4.0 = 65 kts = 987mb for a standard storm). Maybe they could have used a size adjustment, but it really didn't make a lick of difference to anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 Leslie's wrath covers city in goo, browns trees early http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/story/2012/09/19/nl-leslie-trees-brown-leaves-goo-919.html?cmp=rss Oh headlines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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