jdt Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 I am heading to Acadia NP in Maine for a week beginning this Saturday. Looking forward to some big swells interacting with the picturesque rocky coast. Thunder Hole will hopefully be very thunderous. I suspect there is a rather small chance we'll experience perhaps a bit more then just swells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Euro joins the canadian with the cutoff low/trough going negative and pulling Leslie in enough to strongly affect Eastern NE and Canada. Can it get more west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 who cares--still a big ol fish Nothing is set in stone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Nothing is set in stone 18z GFS trended towards the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 The wave watch models have 3-4 footers reaching the New Jersey and Long Island coasts...with the best stuff in association with Leslie staying pretty far offshore. I'm sure we'll see some adjustments as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 The wave watch models have 3-4 footers reaching the New Jersey and Long Island coasts...with the best stuff in association with Leslie staying pretty far offshore. I'm sure we'll see some adjustments as we get closer. Now? We already have solid 4-6 foot swell at Jones Beach. The power of the swell 4.9 feet at 15 seconds at 44025 is already evident as the beach is starting to wash over at high tide. Leslie is a beast as far as fetch size and is creating swell more on par with a cat 2-3. I expect as Leslie strengthens and the wind field even increases further it will be become and even more prolific swell producer then it is already. As the storm moves closer to use and swell decay becomes less of an issue we should be looking at some truly large surf by East Coast standards Sunday/Monday. Pure swell heights at 44025 should peak in the 12-15 foot range with breaking surf heights of 10-20 feet (depending on location and local bathemitry, Montuak closer to 20 foot and Long Beach closer to 10) During Bill's swell in 2009 there was tremendous beach erosion and damage due to extreme wash-overs. Anything that was on the beach at Jones Beach was washed away including miles of snow fence, signs and almost all the life guard equipment (I have been a life guard there for 14 years and we are still on duty) This looks like a similar, but longer event then Bill. The effects to local beaches this week and weekend from a very prolonged swell event should not be downplayed. I expect severe erosion at vulnerable beaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 If by some odd chance the 12z NAM was correct, Leslie would be on a course to get pulled into SNE. It really is too bad that Leslie won't be able to make it far enough SW before the recurve because the setup is ideal for an East Coast landfall for anything near the Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 If by some odd chance the 12z NAM was correct, Leslie would be on a course to get pulled into SNE. Not even a chance at seeing an outer rain band with that trough sweeping through the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 Not even a chance at seeing an outer rain band with that trough sweeping through the east coast. Not with a progressive trough, but some models have not been progressive at all, and in some cases have actually closed it off, thus, Leslie gets "captured" and sucked towards the coast much like a noreaster could be in winter time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 Not with a progressive trough, but some models have not been progressive at all, and in some cases have actually closed it off, thus, Leslie gets "captured" and sucked towards the coast much like a noreaster could be in winter time. which models favor the capture? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 which models favor the capture? none Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 which models favor the capture? The entire point of my origional post was about the NAM, hence why I said "If by some odd chance the NAM is right" Previous runs of both the GFS and ECMWF have shown a track which would impact the US, although none of the current modeling is showing that type of scenario at this time. Still a few days to see if the models are right about the strength and timing of the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Not with a progressive trough, but some models have not been progressive at all, and in some cases have actually closed it off, thus, Leslie gets "captured" and sucked towards the coast much like a noreaster could be in winter time. Nam doesn't even have it though. I would think there would have to be a stalled out cutoff low over the lakes or ohio valley with a bermuda ridge building west. Not even close in this situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Funny that the weather channel has a crew in Coney Island to cover rip currents created by Leslie. Can someone please tell them they are NOT on the ocean!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Funny that the weather channel has a crew in Coney Island to cover rip currents created by Leslie. Can someone please tell them they are NOT on the ocean!!!!! its pretty funny how some of the wx side knowledge doesn't have much of a carry over onto swell/wave propagation/size/timing (forecasting) leslie swell has been reaching SE rhode island coast since tues. afternoon, as (SSE swell angle doesn't lie ) @ 13 sec on bouy reports. and yes leslie was a beast of a swell producer on par with higher category hurricanes, fetch rules pure and simple for wave size. i think long island may do well mon/tues as leslie swell peaks and some diminish'd michael swell (loong period mixes in) should provide quite a interesting ocean should the two swells mix (both ESE or so give or take) long island surfer what's your take on some michael swell mixin in by tues/wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 its pretty funny how some of the wx side knowledge doesn't have much of a carry over onto swell/wave propagation/size/timing (forecasting) leslie swell has been reaching SE rhode island coast since tues. afternoon, as (SSE swell angle doesn't lie ) @ 13 sec on bouy reports. and yes leslie was a beast of a swell producer on par with higher category hurricanes, fetch rules pure and simple for wave size. i think long island may do well mon/tues as leslie swell peaks and some diminish'd michael swell (loong period mixes in) should provide quite a interesting ocean should the two swells mix (both ESE or so give or take) long island surfer what's your take on some michael swell mixin in by tues/wed I wouldn't expect much from Micheal. As we saw with Kirk (which was closer) a small micro canes fetch area is just to small to produce large swell. Kirk came in before Leslie with swell peaking at 44025 at 2.6 feet at 12 seconds. Since Micheal is further, decay should counter act the fact that it is moving in a more favorable direction and thus has more ability to increase wave setup. I would expect Micheal to send a 13-14 second swell with heights at 44025 of about 3 foot. With Leslie producing a similar period swell but much larger in height (6-8 foot at the peak) it will be hard to notice much from Micheal. Still, the combination of swells and offshore winds due to a perfectly timed big Canadian high should lead to near epic conditions by East Coast standards Sunday/Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday. East Coast surfers live for this and I suspect Leslie's incredible 8 day swell will not be soon forgotten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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