bluewave Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 The modes are pretty keen on developing the next tropical wave into Leslie. While most models keep Leslie well offshore, the Euro is hinting a a set up that may bring some large swells to the coast for the surf competition in Long Beach early in September. The Euro develops a block to the north while it has a closed low off the Southeast Coast. This type of pattern could draw Leslie close enough off the coast to send in a large swell. http://longbeach.pat...on-in-september Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 The modes are pretty keen on developing the next tropical wave into Leslie. While most models keep Leslie well offshore, the Euro is hinting a a set up that may bring some large swells to the coast for the surf competition in Long Beach early in September. The Euro develops a block to the north while it has a closed low off the Southeast Coast. This type of pattern could draw Leslie close enough off the coast to send in a large swell. http://longbeach.pat...on-in-september Love wave watching party's, to bad it can't come more west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 If the trough that is projected to come into out area slows up, this storm will move further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 It's at least partially Isaac remnants, goes into that forming closed low off the SE coast. But it's too far out to trust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 It's amazing how I always thought of '85 as an active season even though we didn't get to G until mid to late September and ultimately had 12 or 13 named storms. Now in what seems like a quiet year we're already up to L? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 Today's (30/00Z) run of the ECMWF model shows a very improbable hurricane threat to Cape Cod in about 10 days. It shows the upper trough now over the Northeast pinching off into the Bermuda Triangle and merging with the remnants of Tropical Storm Isaac, which along with a strong Western Atlantic ridge would hurl soon-to-be Leslie NNW from near Bermuda to Cape Cod. Very improbable, but then again I just watched a teammate of my son's hit a very improbable walkoff grand slam to win a summer league baseball championship. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 Accuweather is saying the east coast should monitor this system http://www.accuweath...nd-anothe/71365 I was talking with DT last night and he thinks that this storm will not be for the fishes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 Meh, when do they not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 Everyone should take any of accuweather's forecasts with a grain of salt. They are as accurate at forecasting as the nam past 84 hours. Im surprisd they still get members over there lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 Accuweather is saying the east coast should monitor this system http://www.accuweath...nd-anothe/71365 I was talking with DT last night and he thinks that this storm will not be for the fishes. what's Janice Huff saying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 Check the main thread about this storm. Some interesting discussions going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 what's Janice Huff saying? Ill take Amy Freeze for the win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 Regardless of ultimate track it will for sure send a large swell to the east coast. Based on the expected large size and track west of or close to 60 west we are in for a large multi day swell. Large size means large fetch and hence large sea state. A good analog is igor 2010 which took a similar track and produced a large swell for the entire east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 0z GFS and 6z GFS shifted westward. Here is the 6z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 I think we want to see as much space between Kirk and Leslie as possible, the quicker Kirk can get out of the way, the quicker the ridge can build back overhead. Then the trough moving through SE Canada needs to be watched closely. The 06z GFS is much slower and deeper with the trough than the 00z ECMWF. On the 06z GFS, the trough digs almost all the way to Florida and swings negative, drawing Leslie towards the coast, with the closest approach to this area around hrs 228-240. The 00z Euro is not nearly as deep, but the timining is similar. The 00z Canadien is commical, with Leslie making it to the Latitude of about Norfolfk, VA before getting captured under the ridge, and then pushed westward (East of Bermuda). At the same time, a deep trough is along the East Coast and we have a soaking rain storm. It's notable because the strength and depth of the trough is similar to the 06z GFS. The NOGAPS is similar to the Canadien with regards to the location of Leslie, strength, and position of the ridge overtop, but much weaker and shallower and less amplified with the trough along the east coast. Of course this is nothing more than speculation 10+ days out, but the big players to watch appear to be how fast Kirk gets out of the way, how far West Leslie can make it before that trough approaches the east coast, and the strength and depth of that trough. I would be interested to see a list of analogs for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 I think we want to see as much space between Kirk and Leslie as possible, the quicker Kirk can get out of the way, the quicker the ridge can build back overhead. Then the trough moving through SE Canada needs to be watched closely. The 06z GFS is much slower and deeper with the trough than the 00z ECMWF. On the 06z GFS, the trough digs almost all the way to Florida and swings negative, drawing Leslie towards the coast, with the closest approach to this area around hrs 228-240. The 00z Euro is not nearly as deep, but the timining is similar. The 00z Canadien is commical, with Leslie making it to the Latitude of about Norfolfk, VA before getting captured under the ridge, and then pushed westward (East of Bermuda). At the same time, a deep trough is along the East Coast and we have a soaking rain storm. It's notable because the strength and depth of the trough is similar to the 06z GFS. The NOGAPS is similar to the Canadien with regards to the location of Leslie, strength, and position of the ridge overtop, but much weaker and shallower and less amplified with the trough along the east coast. Of course this is nothing more than speculation 10+ days out, but the big players to watch appear to be how fast Kirk gets out of the way, how far West Leslie can make it before that trough approaches the east coast, and the strength and depth of that trough. I would be interested to see a list of analogs for this one. New England Hurricane of 1938 is one of the best analogs for this, with the cutoff low over the great lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 New England Hurricane of 1938 is one of the best analogs for this, with the cutoff low over the great lakes. So far none of the guidance has made it as far SW as the great hurricane of 1938, but I can see the similarities for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 please stop with the posts, that setup is not even close. Agreed 38's setup was like winning powerball. I think NHC is way low on their intensity forecast. This is by far the best shot we have had this year for a major. Peak of the season moving into the meat of the MDR where countless storms have gone major in the past a weak shear environment and they are worried about anticyclone placement? I don't buy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 Interesting discussion by Allan Huffman http://www.examiner.com/article/tropical-storm-leslie-needs-to-be-watched Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 I am Glass 5/64th optimistic on better than just surf, but an actual sensible weather impact in Brooklyn, and Glass 13/32nd optimistic on dangerous rip currents on Tri-State beaches with direct ocean exposure. We used to go to a place called Tobay beach when I was a kid and surf was rough, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 1, 2012 Share Posted September 1, 2012 I think we can write Leslie off for the east coast. The models last night show a deep trough coming into the east. As we head deeper into September, the troughs will come in more frequently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ababa Posted September 2, 2012 Share Posted September 2, 2012 Since this looks like the banter thread I'll post here.....leaving at 4PM for a cruise to Bermuda. Gets into Bermuda Wednesday morning and is supposed to depart Friday afternoon. Really hope the cruise goes forward and we get some 10-20' waves on the ship. The cruise must go on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 I think we can write Leslie off for the east coast. The models last night show a deep trough coming into the east. As we head deeper into September, the troughs will come in more frequently. Definitely not...it's hard to keep up with all the track changes. Leslie is already approaching 65W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Definitely not...it's hard to keep up with all the track changes. Leslie is already approaching 65W. Models are shifting west. Have to keep an eye on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Euro also shifted west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Euro also shifted west I can't believe what I'm looking at, this can't go back east because it's already too far west and high pressure is building in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Models are shifting west. Have to keep an eye on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Euro also shifted west who cares--still a big ol fish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 who cares--still a big ol fish in relevance to the thread title, a storm like the euro depicted would create some epic waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 who cares--still a big ol fish 12z euro hits Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.