Sunny and Warm Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Its ironic that the best satellite presentation Isaac has ever had is now over land. Clearly the storm is not weakening rapidly, if at all. what is that anti-cyclonic feature in eastern TX?? It appears to be impacting the western side of Isaac as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJDEVIL Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Yes dear... let's go sailing today. I know, I was thikning the same thing, I could perhaps see commercial fisherman out on the water in a CAT 1, they don't make money sitting in port. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Same thing with Irene last season....I remember rebutting DT when he was calling for Irene to undergo RI near the Bahamas, which he later denied, of course. Intensity forecast is about 40% observation, 40% experience, and 20% models. Consider what the sat. view suggests regarding intensity, the issues plaguing it, if any, and draw upon your past experiences. This one had modest rates of intensification written all over it, as Irene had "skunked" post ERC written all over it last season. I don't give a broken levee what the models say....if the sytem does not look pretty on sat, with a well defined eye on IR, and/or is being plagued by: 1) An Upper Level Low (ULL) 2) A Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) 3) Dry air 4) Poory developed inner core Honorable Mention: Shear, and Eye Wall Replacement Cycles (ERCs) BE LEERY, AND BE CONSERVATIVE because those are signs of atmospheric defects that are seldom quickly resolved. Its the atmosphere's way of telling you something......listen to it. What was the final LF intensity? I believe that my call of 970ish/80mph from a few days back was close, anyway.... This is my view quoted from the NE thread.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Houma still reporting 971mb. Isaac in no hurry to weaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJDEVIL Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Houma still reporting 971mb. Isaac in no hurry to weaken. Perhaps the pressure has fallen slightly? Latest NHC advisory had the pressure at 973. In terms of radar presentation, Isaac looks about as healthy and as organized as it ever has. The eye has contracted into an almost perfect circle and the Western side has really filled in over the last two hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Perhaps the pressure has fallen slightly? Latest NHC advisory had the pressure at 973. In terms of radar presentation, Isaac looks about as healthy and as organized as it ever has. The eye has contracted into an almost perfect circle and the Western side has really filled in over the last two hours. It's a private station so I'm not sure I'd take it as 100% correct. It's been steady for a while more or less after bottoming out around 969. http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KLAHOUMA4&day=29&month=08&year=2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 18Z Observations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ISAAC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 34B NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012 200 PM CDT WED AUG 29 2012 ...ISAAC WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...LIFE-THREATENING HAZARDS FROM STORM SURGE AND INLAND FLOODING ARE STILL OCCURRING... SUMMARY OF 200 PM CDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.8N 90.9W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WSW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSE OF BATON ROUGE LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WARNING AND THE HURRICANE WATCH HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED...AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ADJUSTED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAMERON LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 What was the final LF intensity? I believe that my call of 970ish/80mph from a few days back was close, anyway.... This is my view quoted from the NE thread.... Nice call I mentioned the same back on Sunday saying a consensus of certain models had an average intensity of 67 knts at 72 hours which was spot on with timing and pretty much with intensity . I mentioned later in another post a range of 65-70 knts and that they showed it remaining below 60 knts. for the next 48 hours, which was about the same timing before it finally jumped to 65 knts. The GFDL ensemble means did the best...GPMN and GPM2-(Interpolated 12 hours) along with SHFR. I believe the GPMx's did so well since the initial environmental conditions are not perturbed but instead the vortex structure and intensity, SST's or inner core moisture are slightly altered in each ensemble run. So they probably accounted for the dry air being entrained and the lack of good vortex structure. I have been looking for information on the SHFR model and the perturbations done to it vs. the SHIP models besides it only being a 3 day forecast model and I haven't found anything. Does anyone else have any info. on the SHFR that might shed some light on why it way out performed the SHIP and other models? Anyways I can't repost the post since the topic is locked. But here is the link. http://www.americanw...00#entry1715936 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJDEVIL Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ISAAC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 34B NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012 200 PM CDT WED AUG 29 2012 ...ISAAC WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...LIFE-THREATENING HAZARDS FROM STORM SURGE AND INLAND FLOODING ARE STILL OCCURRING... SUMMARY OF 200 PM CDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.8N 90.9W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WSW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSE OF BATON ROUGE LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WARNING AND THE HURRICANE WATCH HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED...AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ADJUSTED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAMERON LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER I had a feeling they were going to downgrade and I don't agree with it, the radar presentation is about as best as its been. I haven't seen any recent wind reports, have we stopped receiving hurricane force wind reports? Pretty amazing to think that along Isaac's entire journey from Africa to New Orleans it spent just barely over 24 hours as a Hurricane and will have wound up causing millions and millions of dollars worth of damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 29, 2012 Author Share Posted August 29, 2012 I had a feeling they were going to downgrade and I don't agree with it, the radar presentation is about as best as its been. I haven't seen any recent wind reports, have we stopped receiving hurricane force wind reports? Pretty amazing to think that along Isaac's entire journey from Africa to New Orleans it spent just barely over 24 hours as a Hurricane and will have wound up causing millions and millions of dollars worth of damage. Winds are lifting off the ground a bit....so sustained hurricane force winds aren't being observed at the surface. Also, just about all TC's that come ashore, have improved radar signatures, due to the tightening of the bands. Are there gusts to hurricane force? Most certainly, but that is not the official criteria for retaining hurricane status. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJDEVIL Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Winds are lifting off the ground a bit....so sustained hurricane force winds aren't being observed at the surface. Also, just about all TC's that come ashore, have improved radar signatures, due to the tightening of the bands. Are there gusts to hurricane force? Most certainly, but that is not the official criteria for retaining hurricane status. Yes, I'm well aware of all of this, but the media sees the downgrade as an all clear signal, and that is the furthest thing from the truth at this point. Edit: Clearly I was wrong before and Isaac's best hours are behind him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeauDodson Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Briefing http://www.srh.noaa.gov/media/lch/owbrief/owbrief.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Yes, I'm well aware of all of this, but the media sees the downgrade as an all clear signal, and that is the furthest thing from the truth at this point. That in no way is reason to continue the hurricane status. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJDEVIL Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 That in no way is reason to continue the hurricane status. See my edit from the post above, and your statement goes back to an argument from yesterday about whether they should have upgraded sooner to raise awarness, even if surface winds didn't necessarily support the upgrade. Not brining back up an old argument, just stating that public awarness is a big issue when it comes to wording. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 radar estimates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Everyone should look at the 200 image loop from LIX http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJDEVIL Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Everyone should look at the 200 image loop from LIX http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/ May have posted a bad loop, that loop shows the mid-west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 . Are those storms in FL related to Isaac? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Are those storms in FL related to Isaac? Yeah just look at their movement and the 850 mb Moisture Transport Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Graupel Flux Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 May have posted a bad loop, that loop shows the mid-west You have to change the radar location to LIX. Top right corner of the website, "Radar Site Map", then select LIX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 16" plus now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom McNeal Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Has anyone started to look at the flooding possibilities a day or two from now as the Mississippi brings all this water back south down the river? It was a huge problem after Gustav. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ISAAC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 35A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012 700 PM CDT WED AUG 29 2012 ...SLOW-MOVING ISAAC DUMPING HEAVY RAINS AND STILL PRODUCING A SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.1N 91.1W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM S OF BATON ROUGE LOUISIANA ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM W OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...90 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAMERON LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 00Z observations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 Only half a storm on radar, but the half that still has the storm still rather active. TORNADO WARNINGMSC041-111-153-300415- /O.NEW.KMOB.TO.W.0047.120830T0325Z-120830T0415Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 1025 PM CDT WED AUG 29 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN GREENE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI... NORTHEASTERN PERRY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI... SOUTHWESTERN WAYNE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI... * UNTIL 1115 PM CDT * AT 1015 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG ROTATION AND LIKELY PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 13 MILES EAST OF RICHTON... OR 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF MCLAIN...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 50 MPH. THIS STORM WILL SOON PASS VERY NEAR THE WAYNE...GREENE AND PERRY COUNTY MUTUAL BORDERS. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... RURAL NORTHWESTERN GREENE COUNTY RURAL NORTHEASTERN PERRY COUNTY RURAL SOUTHWESTERN WAYNE COUNTY Hotlink, not an upload. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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