DaculaWeather Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Here's a 3 hour rainfall total. Notice no rain for the last 3 hours in the "hole". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Eye is contracting and getting better defined, probably due to inland frictional convergence. Also, an eye is clearing on visible sat imagery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 looks like its still raining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Houma is directly in the middle of the eye now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y6LtYejsnp4&feature=share&list=UULBjz6JAsl28o0ORKaXd81A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeauDodson Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 You can tell the local meteorologists are just about fed up with NHC and their movements. Not only the mets but the local reporters are also poking at NHC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 You can tell the local meteorologists are just about fed up with NHC and their movements. Not only the mets but the local reporters are also poking at NHC. And the internet, the forecaster on WGNO was just hammering the internet rumors about the storm getting back out over the water. He did make a good point though that even based on the NHC updates it's not moving at the rate they're saying. I can understand their frustration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 8" pixels showing up now just south of NoLa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 You can tell the local meteorologists are just about fed up with NHC and their movements. Not only the mets but the local reporters are also poking at NHC. At 11pm EDT the storm was 75 miles SE of Houma, LA. Now, 13 hours later the storm is directly over Houma. The NHC listed movement is to the NW at 6mph, which is pretty much exactly what the storm has done the last 12 hours. At that 11pm advisory the listed speed was NW at 8mph, which in hindsight was too fast but missing by 2mph doesn't seem like a bad forecast. I think it is unreasonable to expect them to try and account for every wobble and stall in their movement forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJDEVIL Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Once again using Houma as a reference point, looks like a wobble now almost due North, which would be bad news for New Orleans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJDEVIL Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 At 11pm EDT the storm was 75 miles SE of Houma, LA. Now, 13 hours later the storm is directly over Houma. The NHC listed movement is to the NW at 6mph, which is pretty much exactly what the storm has done the last 12 hours. At that 11pm advisory the listed speed was NW at 8mph, which in hindsight was too fast but missing by 2mph doesn't seem like a bad forecast. I think it is unreasonable to expect them to try and account for every wobble and stall in their movement forecasts. I am one of the last people to criticize the NHC/NWS, they are the big boys with the very advanced degress, equipment, knowledge and experience, but I have several issues, for one, they still have movement listed at 6mph in the latest advisory when the center has clearly not moved for the past 4-5 hours, unless you would like to account for a slight wobble to the West and then to the North. In any event, we should save the NHC critique until the storm has ended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 8" pixels showing up now just south of NoLa. 8.26 inches last 12 hours at NOLA-Lakefront if you trust the guage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Msalgado Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 New Orleans is already in the worst quadrant and slight wobbles aren't going to make any huge differences. Its all academic at this point and as long as it keeps moving then the wobbles won't matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 radar "estimates" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 I am one of the last people to criticize the NHC/NWS, they are the big boys with the very advanced degress, equipment, knowledge and experience, but I have several issues, for one, they still have movement listed at 6mph in the latest advisory when the center has clearly not moved for the past 4-5 hours, unless you would like to account for a slight wobble to the West and then to the North. In any event, we should save the NHC critique until the storm has ended. If you look at radar even right now, and loop it, you can see it is moving north, not very fast, but it is. People need to realize just how slow 6 mph is, lol. But in the latest loop, it definitely is not stationary. Like dunkman said, last night at the 11pm advisory it was 75 miles SE of Houma, and the eye is directly overhead now. NHC's forecast was fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeauDodson Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 At 11pm EDT the storm was 75 miles SE of Houma, LA. Now, 13 hours later the storm is directly over Houma. The NHC listed movement is to the NW at 6mph, which is pretty much exactly what the storm has done the last 12 hours. At that 11pm advisory the listed speed was NW at 8mph, which in hindsight was too fast but missing by 2mph doesn't seem like a bad forecast. I think it is unreasonable to expect them to try and account for every wobble and stall in their movement forecasts. I am just telling you what they are saying - whether right or wrong - they are being slammed pretty hard by the local media. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasons Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Looking at GR2 radar trends, I think Issac is finally starting to lift out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 2 different areas of rotation in the bands about to push into Gulfport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJDEVIL Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Very obvious NW movement at last Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 I see the rotation stayed in tact. First TOR I've seen with a confirmed TOG. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN HANCOCK COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...DIAMONDHEAD...BAY ST. LOUIS... WESTERN HARRISON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... PEARL RIVER COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF POPLARVILLE... * UNTIL 1245 PM CDT * AT 1213 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LYMAN...OR NEAR LONG BEACH...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 55 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 nw / w, next? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Its ironic that the best satellite presentation Isaac has ever had is now over land. Clearly the storm is not weakening rapidly, if at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJDEVIL Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 It's taking a turn back to the West, but the good news is that it should be far enough North that it won't make it back over the open water. Western eyewall could be in Morgan City shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 A couple of strong couplets are about to come ashore just East of Gulfport. The first one is a really strong signature more than likely a waterspout already associated with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJDEVIL Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Its ironic that the best satellite presentation Isaac has ever had is now over land. Clearly the storm is not weakening rapidly, if at all. A few things in play, the COC may be over land, but a large portion of the circulation itself is still over water, including until very recently parts of the southern eyewall. You also have to account for the type of terrain in that part of LA, as many have said, the area is made up of mostly marsh and swamp and while it's not the same as being over open water, it appears to not be hurting it much. The region is also flat and void of any significant eleveation, and the area around the circulaion remains moist. I wouldn't be surprised to see this thing maintain its intensity for several more hours, and if it somehow managed to make it back over open water, although unlikely, it could temporarily halt any further weakening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJDEVIL Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 SPECIAL MARINE WARNING GMZ532-536-557-291830- /O.NEW.KLIX.MA.W.0376.120829T1726Z-120829T1830Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SPECIAL MARINE WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1226 PM CDT WED AUG 29 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A * SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR... COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI TO STAKE ISLAND OUT 20 NM OVER GULF OF MEXICO WATERS... MISSISSIPPI SOUND OVER GULF OF MEXICO WATERS... CHANDELEUR SOUND OVER GULF OF MEXICO WATERS... INCLUDING CHANDELEUR SOUND...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...CAT ISLAND...HORN ISLAND...PASS CHRISTIAN AND SHIP ISLAND... * UNTIL 130 PM CDT * AT 1220 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY PRODUCING WATERSPOUTS OFF THE COAST OF MISSISSIPPI BETWEEN BAY ST LOUIS AND PASCAGOULA...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 50 KNOTS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS...HIGH WAVES...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING... AND HEAVY RAINS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY...UNTIL THIS STORM PASSES. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. && LAT...LON 3043 8888 3035 8874 3035 8840 2988 8831 2986 8842 2964 8849 2940 8868 2982 8943 2987 8934 2995 8945 3006 8944 3019 8953 3031 8933 3033 8939 3038 8935 3030 8928 3041 8886 3042 8901 3043 8899 3044 8888 TIME...MOT...LOC 1725Z 140DEG 50KT 2992 8886 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 29, 2012 Author Share Posted August 29, 2012 nw / w, next? OK...which mod didn't like my depiction of trochoidal motion via paint! We should see a southward motion for a bit, then a pause then a north or ne movement, then north then west.....repeat until center winds down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJDEVIL Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Hard to tell but we may be seeing a SW jog on the latest radar, movement seems to have slowed a bit again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 SPECIAL MARINE WARNING GMZ532-536-557-291830- /O.NEW.KLIX.MA.W.0376.120829T1726Z-120829T1830Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SPECIAL MARINE WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1226 PM CDT WED AUG 29 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A * SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR... COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI TO STAKE ISLAND OUT 20 NM OVER GULF OF MEXICO WATERS... MISSISSIPPI SOUND OVER GULF OF MEXICO WATERS... CHANDELEUR SOUND OVER GULF OF MEXICO WATERS... INCLUDING CHANDELEUR SOUND...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...CAT ISLAND...HORN ISLAND...PASS CHRISTIAN AND SHIP ISLAND... * UNTIL 130 PM CDT * AT 1220 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY PRODUCING WATERSPOUTS OFF THE COAST OF MISSISSIPPI BETWEEN BAY ST LOUIS AND PASCAGOULA...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 50 KNOTS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS...HIGH WAVES...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING... AND HEAVY RAINS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY...UNTIL THIS STORM PASSES. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. && LAT...LON 3043 8888 3035 8874 3035 8840 2988 8831 2986 8842 2964 8849 2940 8868 2982 8943 2987 8934 2995 8945 3006 8944 3019 8953 3031 8933 3033 8939 3038 8935 3030 8928 3041 8886 3042 8901 3043 8899 3044 8888 TIME...MOT...LOC 1725Z 140DEG 50KT 2992 8886 Yes dear... let's go sailing today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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