TUweathermanDD Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 80kt, expected to reach 95kt for peak. NHC has 65kt winds reaching out 15nm from the center. If it keeps us this kind of rapid intensification I'd say 105kts is likely. Very favorable warm water low shear convergent environment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 Good symmetry corresponding to a low-shear environment. Nice outflow pattern too! Only inhibiting factor right now is that there's tons of dry air surrounding the system. Most of that dry air should not entrain into Kirk given the low shear, but even a little bit of dry air into a small system can do a lot of harm. I still don't think it will be enough to prevent gradual intensification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 Eye is warming on IR, and -70C cloud tops are almost completely surrounding the cyclone. That, the fact that is rapidly intensifying and the tiny nature of the cyclone hint at a major very, very soon if it can keep the trend for a few more hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 If it keeps us this kind of rapid intensification I'd say 105kts is likely. Very favorable warm water low shear convergent environment This one will gain 15mph on post storm analysis. There is no recon to verify the intensity and small core systems are usually underestimated using satellite methods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 TRMM is going over Kirk right now, a visible shot won't be available but the IR/microwave data should be spectacular. Epically sexy cyclone. (Images uploaded for posterity.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 Josh...I think you're gonna need a bigger boat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 Josh...I think you're gonna need a bigger boat. He's probably pricing flights to Bermuda just in case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 He's probably pricing flights to Bermuda just in case. I was thinking the same thing, hes never done a bermuda chase, and probably never will. I think he's maybe talked about it and said why not, or I could be thinking of someone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 Dry air looks to be getting to the southern part of this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 That's epic. Such a wound up core. (images uploaded for posterity) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 Spectacular presentation on enhanced IR tonight.... still probably a likely candidate for major hurricane status. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 Also... can anybody from CIMMS confirm if they updated ADT? It looks like they have modified ADT so that is now takes in microwave imagery. If so that has the potential to make it a substantially more useful tool than its current satellite estimation technique alone. 2012AUG30 001500 2.5 1006.9 35.0 2.5 2.5 3.4 MW Adjst OFF OFF -30.26 -23.56 CRVBND N/A N/A 25.55 48.10 FCST GOES13 42.2 MWinit1=2.9/2.5/2.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 Well played NHC... from the 8/30 11 PM disco KIRK HAS REACHED THE WESTERN END OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND SHOULD UNDERGO RECURVATURE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY BECOME EMBEDDED IN MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES...AND ACCELERATE AT WARP SPEED WITH THE APPROACH OF A POTENT MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES IN 36-48 HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 Well played NHC... from the 8/30 11 PM disco KIRK HAS REACHED THE WESTERN END OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND SHOULD UNDERGO RECURVATURE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY BECOME EMBEDDED IN MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES...AND ACCELERATE AT WARP SPEED WITH THE APPROACH OF A POTENT MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES IN 36-48 HOURS. Not just warp speed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 Very interesting midget cyclone. Too bad the trof to the north will beam it up into the cyclone graveyard. Impressive 8nm eye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 From the satellite pick I think we have the first Major Hurricane and the first RI of the 2012 season. This won't be official until 5am though. There were a few dry air intrusions this evening Kirk manged to quickly cough out the dry air every time and resume intensification. This is a good example of why Josh loves small storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 Kirk is the perfect midget storm right now. Very quick to mix out dry air and also able to go through multiple RI phases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 5am advisory has increased the winds to 105 mph. http://www.nhc.noaa....ml/310847.shtml MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KIRK IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY TODAY...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN ON SATURDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 I was thinking the same thing, hes never done a bermuda chase, and probably never will. I think he's maybe talked about it and said why not, or I could be thinking of someone else. Small islands limit his flexibility as far as at least getting into at least the eywall if there is even a small wobble in path. And he has to commit early enough to get there before th airport closes, which means he has to use a fairly early forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 Small islands limit his flexibility as far as at least getting into at least the eywall if there is even a small wobble in path. And he has to commit early enough to get there before th airport closes, which means he has to use a fairly early forecast. Bermuda would need to be a combined chase / vacation to make it worthwhile... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 Any idea whats on the south east flank of Kirk? Almost looks like its developing some sort of frontal boundary... It's convective nature is surely deteoriating with time. Thinking it might be downgraded to a TS later today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 Any idea whats on the south east flank of Kirk? Almost looks like its developing some sort of frontal boundary... It's convective nature is surely deteoriating with time. Thinking it might be downgraded to a TS later today... Yea im surprised at how fast its gone downhill, but at its peak I guarantee it was more than 105, 115/120. As amped said should gain in reanalysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 Kirk's mid-level circulation has been annihilated. So much for this attaining major hurricane status; though, the the storm may have been a major over night after that bit of rapid intensification it went through. Some of the early a.m. imagery revealed the core to be quite intense. Unfortunately, we'll never know. 500-700mb shear apparently punched the core with the very dry air in the mid-levels that is positioned to Kirk's immediate SW. There's only 8-10kts of shear though given the storm's relative motion. I did not foresee the internal structure deteriorating so quickly. Even if tiny, it looked organized enough to have been our first major. Ahh well... intensity forecasting fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 Any idea whats on the south east flank of Kirk? Almost looks like its developing some sort of frontal boundary... It's convective nature is surely deteoriating with time. Thinking it might be downgraded to a TS later today... Based on the shear map, it looks like that general location is where flow is coming together in the upper levels and channeling to the SE. May have something to do with it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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