Hurriplane Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 000 WTNT41 KNHC 282035 TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012 500 PM AST TUE AUG 28 2012 CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...AND THE SYSTEM IS NOW CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE CENTER WAS EXPOSED EARLIER TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO ABOUT 15 KT OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...HOWEVER...THE CENTER HAS NOW REFORMED CLOSER TO THE COLD CLOUD TOPS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM SAB. RGB AIRMASS IMAGERY FROM MET-9 SHOWS AN AREA OF DRY AIR TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH THE SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN LIMITED INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...IF THE DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS...THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM SOON. OVERALL THE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS AN UPPER-LOW MOVES WESTWARD AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THE CYCLONE MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN ABOUT THREE DAYS THE SHEAR SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF A MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE OF NORTH AMERICA. THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND ITS POSSIBLE THE CYCLONE COULD DISSIPATE AT SOME POINT...AS SHOWN BY THE GFS MODEL. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 285/09...AS THE CENTER HAS BEEN REFORMING CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION. A WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE WILL BE STEERED BY A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE CYCLONE WILL REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE BY 72 HOURS AND A NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS EXPECTED AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS THROUGH 72 HOURS AND IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF AFTER THAT TIME. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 23.8N 43.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 24.1N 45.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 24.3N 47.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 24.6N 49.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 25.3N 51.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 31/1800Z 27.5N 55.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 01/1800Z 32.5N 55.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 02/1800Z 40.0N 48.0W 35 KT 40 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Ships was initialized with 35kt, so unless we see suddenly see weakening before the advisory, we'll have Kirk at 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Ships was initialized with 35kt, so unless we see suddenly see weakening before the advisory, we'll have Kirk at 11 My very untrained eye sees dry air and shear in those two images. So do you think it will be able to survive very long? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Looks like we have Kirk. Aren't we now on tabs with 2005? Pretty freaking good for what was projected earlier in the season. With mid September into October looking like another active phase, we could come within 2-3 storms of the past two seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Hello Kirk. 40kt, expected to hit 55kt TROPICAL STORM KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012 0300 UTC WED AUG 29 2012 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 45.0W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Kirk's ASCAT...Knowing the low estimate bias in ASCAT, and that only a little less than half of the circulation was scanned, 40kts is on the conservative side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Amazing after refusing to call Isaac what it is a cat 2 hurricane, we get this nonsense named in middle of nowhere. https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/240758207490949121 lol...quikscat disagrees about it being nonsense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Amazing after refusing to call Isaac what it is a cat 2 hurricane, we get this nonsense named in middle of nowhere. https://twitter.com/...758207490949121 lol...quikscat disagrees about it being nonsense. Kirk has a chance down the road to pull a Gordon and strengthen into a formidable storm. Granted its a fish as was Gordon but these storms have/are adding more to the ACE this season then anything close in. Also this storm has an opportunity to send some long period swell energy to the East Coast which is a fish factor non coastal residents forget about. I give Kirk a 50/50 chance of either going formidable cane or sheared to crap in the next 4 days. I don't think there is a middle of the road option based on the trend (Joyce). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 its amazing the swing in models.. at one time they developed this system taking it near the ec.. now a fish storm... atleast issac turned out to be something as this will probably be the only tropical threat to the u.s for the remainder of the season.. bring on the dry september Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Upper levels have become quite favorable, and shear is rather low at the moment, and it should continue that way for 2-3 days probably. SSTs are warm (~28C), so I don't see any inhibitors that could prevent Kirk from becoming a hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 Actually looks somewhat decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 50kt with the advisory, but now the official forecast brings it up to 80kt peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 Kirk looks like a perfect case of environmental dry air reducing the TC size (e.g. Hill and Lackmann 2009), but due to the fact that the shear is relatively low, it's not detrimental to the TC's intensity. This illustrates the difficulty in determining whether dry air in the environment will weaken or hold back a TC or not. A closed ring has developed in the last couple microwave passes, and Kirk looks to be well on its way to hurricane status. Of course, Kirk's small size and the dry environment make it especially sensitive to intensity changes associated with the increase in shear in a couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 Kirk looks like a perfect case of environmental dry air reducing the TC size (e.g. Hill and Lackmann 2009), but due to the fact that the shear is relatively low, it's not detrimental to the TC's intensity. This illustrates the difficulty in determining whether dry air in the environment will weaken or hold back a TC or not. A closed ring has developed in the last couple microwave passes, and Kirk looks to be well on its way to hurricane status. Of course, Kirk's small size and the dry environment make it especially sensitive to intensity changes associated with the increase in shear in a couple days. I literally was about to post the same thing, minus the reference... perfect conditions for midget or micro TC formation. This is probably the smallest tropical cyclone in the Atlantic basin since Lisa (2010). The only difference is that Kirk has a much for favorable thermodynamic environment with 28-29 degree Celsius temperatures that should fuel continued development. While the storm will certainly be prone to rapid intensity changes, I'd say there is a decent shot at rapid intensification at any given time over the next 24-48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 Symetric dry environments work well for small storms that don't consume large amounts of moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurriplane Posted August 30, 2012 Author Share Posted August 30, 2012 Pretty awesome to see something this small intensify quite rapidly..an eye would kill it IMO. FWIW has there been a case where microcanes formed an eye? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 Pretty awesome to see something this small intensify quite rapidly..an eye would kill it IMO. FWIW has there been a case where microcanes formed an eye? It's kind of part of the definition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 Pretty awesome to see something this small intensify quite rapidly..an eye would kill it IMO. FWIW has there been a case where microcanes formed an eye? If they attained hurricane status, then I'd say it occurred in just about all the cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 Pretty awesome to see something this small intensify quite rapidly..an eye would kill it IMO. FWIW has there been a case where microcanes formed an eye? Iris 2001, for example Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 Has a nice eye now http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/imagery/vis-animated.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012 1500 UTC THU AUG 30 2012 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 49.5W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 49.5W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 49.2W FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 28.4N 50.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 30.4N 50.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 32.9N 49.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 35.8N 47.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 42.2N 40.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 49.2N 29.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.2N 49.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 Very nice visible loop this morning with Kirk's eye developing and stablising. It'll be interesting to see just how much Kirk will be able to strengthen before shear arrives later in the period. Could Kirk pull a Gordon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 Very nice visible loop this morning with Kirk's eye developing and stablising. It'll be interesting to see just how much Kirk will be able to strengthen before shear arrives later in the period. Could Kirk pull a Gordon? Kirk should be our next major hurricane in the Atlantic. Dry air aside, SSTs and mid-to-upper levels are prime for supporting rapid intensification. The core is very small but well established. Without much mid-level intrusion, this should really take off. It will be over 29º for the next 18-24 hours then 28º through the weekend. With such a small core, the eyewall should be able to tap some of that potential before mid-level shear begins to increase on Sunday/Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 Josh Icyclone needs a cruiseship... They have those in NO, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 wow visible really taking off now. awesome little microcane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurriplane Posted August 30, 2012 Author Share Posted August 30, 2012 My microcane looks amazing! Too bad it's no threat, just shipping lanes possibly. Would've looked amazing to get a closer look! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 18z SHIPS initialized with 75kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 Pretty impressive micro-cane. 75 knots at 5pm. AL, 11, 2012083018, , BEST, 0, 277N, 500W, 75, 984, HU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 Pretty impressive micro-cane. 75 knots at 5pm. AL, 11, 2012083018, , BEST, 0, 277N, 500W, 75, 984, HU Definitely, and imho since it has til sundayish to do its work its definitely got a great shot to be our first major of the season, and maybe get to 125ish. RI looks underway to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 80kt, expected to reach 95kt for peak. NHC has 65kt winds reaching out 15nm from the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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