Dunkman Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 The NAM and HRRR both had the storm going to Texas on their runs yesterday. I don't see how that's better than having the speed about 25% too fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Tropical Storm Isaac now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Tropical Storm Isaac now BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ISAAC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 34B NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012 200 PM CDT WED AUG 29 2012 ...ISAAC WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...LIFE-THREATENING HAZARDS FROM STORM SURGE AND INLAND FLOODING ARE STILL OCCURRING... SUMMARY OF 200 PM CDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.8N 90.9W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WSW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSE OF BATON ROUGE LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WARNING AND THE HURRICANE WATCH HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED...AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ADJUSTED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAMERON LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 I would imagine they expect a levee failure that will put several feet of water into the area in a very short time. Sometimes there are no good choices. Just confirmed. They expect the levy to be overtopped by 1 to 2 feet within 6 hours unless the storm moves away faster that forecasted. Evacuating a "couple thousand" people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 The NAM and HRRR both had the storm going to Texas on their runs yesterday. I don't see how that's better than having the speed about 25% too fast. not for the first 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSNN4 Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 NHC is doing a good job with the storm, In an earlier post I slammed The Weather Channel but I have t give them credit for putting on the National Hurricane Center Good Job TWC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Just shaking my head at the new, traditional housing (no stilts) built on the north shore at 10' or less elevation, with not even the fig leaf of levee protection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conclue Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 The pictures are disturbing. I hate to see this happen to NOLA again. All that rainfall just dumping in the same spot. Who saw this coming a week ago. NO ONE. SMH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Has anyone reported winds anywhere near even 70 sustained today? Baton Rouge is in the northeast eyewall and it's only 44. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Has anyone reported winds anywhere near even 70 sustained today? Baton Rouge is in the northeast eyewall and it's only 44. Why does it matter? Are you suggesting that land reports should match advisory winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 I'm hearing some rumors about a levee break on the north shore of Pontchartrain near Madisonville. Mostly stuff from Twitter, but I don't think we've heard anything official from that area yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Why does it matter? Are you suggesting that land reports should match advisory winds? For all the NHC bashing over whether this was a TS or hurricane it'd be nice to have at least ONE confirmed hurricane ob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Has anyone reported winds anywhere near even 70 sustained today? Baton Rouge is in the northeast eyewall and it's only 44. HRRR 18Z forecast predicted winds over open water in excess of 55 knots. Not saying it is correct, but winds probably are above 40 knots over open water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 For all the NHC bashing over whether this was a TS or hurricane it'd be nice to have at least ONE confirmed hurricane ob. The winds reported seem dead on with the storm of this intensity. None of the JB Cat II crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 For all the NHC bashing over whether this was a TS or hurricane it'd be nice to have at least ONE confirmed hurricane ob. Yup, it's funny, all the weenies were quick to bash the hell out of the NHC, yet looks like they were dead on. And now all they can come up with is bitching about 2 mph here or there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 The pictures are disturbing. I hate to see this happen to NOLA again.All that rainfall just dumping in the same spot. Who saw this coming a week ago. NO ONE. SMH. Actually everyone saw the heavy rain threat coming, it was always being talked about by the NHC, media, etc. it was just a matter of where landfall was going to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Yup, it's funny, all the weenies were quick to bash the hell out of the NHC, yet looks like they were dead on. And now all they can come up with is bitching about 2 mph here or there. They've done a pretty good job imo. Intensity forecasts were good too...all things relative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 For all the NHC bashing over whether this was a TS or hurricane it'd be nice to have at least ONE confirmed hurricane ob. That happens so rarely, though, that you would get sustained wind reports on land to be close to the best estimate of intensity. Often the NHC itself will reference that the highest winds are over water. The only hurricane I can think of off the top of my head where a land station may have captured the highest sustained wind anywhere in the hurricane was Claudette in '03. Then again, the NHC tossed out a couple of the higher values anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 My amateur Issac forecast from the old banter thread busted. But if one reads that whole page, my failure wasn't the most abject and humiliating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 The winds reported seem dead on with the storm of this intensity. None of the JB Cat II crap. There was some weenie on here last night saying Cat 3 was still in play lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Getting annoyed with TWC playing over and over that shot in Biloxi where they put the camera at water level on a curb to make 9" of water look several feet deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 One thing lost in this storm: if the Mississippi had been at normal level, this would've been so much worse. The drought-caused very low levels have saved a lot of people. A lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 That happens so rarely, though, that you would get sustained wind reports on land to be close to the best estimate of intensity. Often the NHC itself will reference that the highest winds are over water. The only hurricane I can think of off the top of my head where a land station may have captured the highest sustained wind anywhere in the hurricane was Claudette in '03. Then again, the NHC tossed out a couple of the higher values anyway. Yeah but in reality I don't think we ever got even close to hurricane sustained on land (or maybe even the nearby buoys??) So for all the yelling leaving it a TS as long as they did was probably warranted and one could potentially question whether or not it was really a weak cane in review, JMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Yeah but in reality I don't think we ever got even close to hurricane sustained on land (or maybe even the nearby buoys??) So for all the yelling leaving it a TS as long as they did was probably warranted and one could potentially question whether or not it was really a weak cane in review, JMHO. Isaac got a lot closer than many, many other Cat 1 hurricanes to having hurricane-force sustained observations on land. Go look at observations of other Cat 1's... usually it's a "victory" just to get some hurricane-force gusts on land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Isaac was a pretty bad storm considering part of it was absorbed by a front along the east coast when it was developing sw of Florida...We can only hope some of this moisture makes it into drought areas...If this storm struck northern Florida the flooding would have been catastrophic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 05Z Update: Keesler: Winds gusting up to 35-40mph through 21Z, then diminishing. Another 2.8" of rainfall accumulations through 31/05Z Slidell: Winds 25-30mph, gusts up to 45-55mph through 14Z, then slowly diminishing. Another 3.9" of rain through 31/05Z Boothville: Winds 45-50mph, gusts up to 60-70mph til 09Z, then 30-35mph, gust up to 50mph through 31/05Z. Another 4.2" of rain through 31/05Z New Orleans: Winds 35-40mph, gusts up to 50-55mph til 09Z, then 30-35mph, gusts up to 50mph til 31/05Z. Another 3.5" of rain through 31/05Z Houma: Winds 25-35mph, gusts up to 45mph. Another 2.07" of rain through 31/05Z Baton Rouge: Winds 25-35mph, gusts up to 45mph, Another 3.29" of rain through 31/05Z McComb: Winds 25-35mph, gusts up to 50mph, Another 3.83" of rain possible Updated my SmartCast Matrix: http://smartwxmodel.net/update.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 Issac looks better on the sat presentation over land than it did at any time in its life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 31-Aug/05Z Update: Current cities under strong threat is: Hot Springs, AR - Little Rock, AR - Montecello, AR Hot Springs: Looking at Rain/Thunderstorms on and off for next 24 hours. Winds 100 20G30mph through the day. Rainfall accumulations of 2.09" possible through 01/05Z Little Rock: Looking at on and off Thunderstorms, with winds 10025G32mph through the day. Rainfall accumulations of 1.49" possible through 01/05Z. Montecello: Looking at periods of rain and Thunderstorms with winds 15018G26mph through the day. Rainfall accumulations of 1.61" possible through 01/05Z. Monroe: Additional accumulations of rain of 1.86" through 01/05Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 Anyone else disappointed that TWC's clown Reynold Wolf wasn't devoured by fireants? He's an instant mute trigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 Unless and until Leslie gets close enough to trigger SNE/NYC forum hyperactivity, can we go from StormCon 1 back to StormCon3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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