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Hurricane Isaac Banter Thread, Part 2


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I am worried about all of the water in NO, remember Katrina's winds were not that bad in NO, it was the flooding that ensued that was the real story. This is going to be a much longer duration event.

It sure sounds like they are much better prepared. Fresh water flooding might be an issue of course as to be expected if you get 20 inches of rain. The surge thus far looks decent but not catastrophic. There's gotta be a fairly sizeable difference despite it being a large system.

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Just for the heck of it - things that we (i.e. reasonable people) have gotten wrong about Isaac. Feel free to add more:

1. GFS is better this year for tropical cyclones (when Euro was showing LA and GFS was showing FL panhandle)

2. Euro has this in hand (when Euro was showing NO-focused northern track and GFS was showing drift to the west)

3. TS's can't have pressure below ~985mb or they become hurricanes

4. TS's/Hurricanes can't strengthen in coastal shelf waters due to "upwelling"

There may be a couple of others related to land effects from Haiti or slowness to increase in strength in GOM - again, feel free to add more (or, knowing you lot, disagree vocally).

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Just for the heck of it - things that we (i.e. reasonable people) have gotten wrong about Isaac. Feel free to add more:

1. GFS is better this year for tropical cyclones (when Euro was showing LA and GFS was showing FL panhandle)

2. Euro has this in hand (when Euro was showing NO-focused northern track and GFS was showing drift to the west)

3. TS's can't have pressure below ~985mb or they become hurricanes

4. TS's/Hurricanes can't strengthen in coastal shelf waters due to "upwelling"

There may be a couple of others related to land effects from Haiti or slowness to increase in strength in GOM - again, feel free to add more (or, knowing you lot, disagree vocally).

Very few people here were absolute about any of these things...this post is largely nonsense.

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Just for the heck of it - things that we (i.e. reasonable people) have gotten wrong about Isaac. Feel free to add more:

1. GFS is better this year for tropical cyclones (when Euro was showing LA and GFS was showing FL panhandle)

2. Euro has this in hand (when Euro was showing NO-focused northern track and GFS was showing drift to the west)

3. TS's can't have pressure below ~985mb or they become hurricanes

4. TS's/Hurricanes can't strengthen in coastal shelf waters due to "upwelling"

There may be a couple of others related to land effects from Haiti or slowness to increase in strength in GOM - again, feel free to add more (or, knowing you lot, disagree vocally).

GFS performed better than the Euro. True, the Euro hit it on a random run 5 days back when they were all doing windshield wipers, but GFS was consistently showing Louisana several days ago and Euro/NHC settled on the Panhandle. We did learn that the 7 day track is useless and the NHC isn't near ready for it yet, but I say GFS has overtaken the Euro on the mid range (ie 3-5 days) as the more reliable model this season.

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The analysis thread is hilarious. A couple of hours ago (when the little 'inner' eyewall was present), the optimists filled the thread. Now the pessimists are filling the thread talking about the decrease in echoes on the western side.

I think only the people who have been keeping a longer term pespective have been worth reading... in other words, those observing the overall track instead of obsessing over every core feature, and observing the gradual but very steady drop in pressure accompanied by a gradual rise in winds. Isaac is not rapidly strengthening nor all of a sudden falling apart.. it's just doing what's it's been doing.

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The analysis thread is hilarious. A couple of hours ago (when the little 'inner' eyewall was present), the optimists filled the thread. Now the pessimists are filling the thread talking about the decrease in echoes on the western side.

I think only the people who have been keeping a longer term pespective have been worth reading... in other words, those observing the overall track instead of obsessing over every core feature, and observing the gradual but very steady drop in pressure accompanied by a gradual rise in winds. Isaac is not rapidly strengthening nor all of a sudden falling apart.. it's just doing what's it's been doing.

People are so vilgilant against weenieism that there's now the "anti-weenie" - people who have just as little knowledge, but try to prove they are the coolest guy in the room by predicting a storm will fall apart, etc. Of course that's overlaid on fairly knowledgeable people who are just wrong.

Also to be fair to the inner eyewall people, recon just reported concentric eyewalls.

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