Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 I've mentioned the NHC intensity calls as being pretty good so far. I mean...I'm no TC expert, but I think they have done well in their thinking. It's clearly fighting a few factors and despite it looking like it will strengthen...probably will a bit..these things sometimes just don't want to obey weenies hopes. We'll see what happens today. Scott you know I've been down on this one for 4+ days. I'm not even close to an expert but I've seen enough of these to believe this was one of those large disorganized storms that fails to get it together. The much discussed/disputed anomalies over the eastern gulf may have had some play in this too. With this type of large system I swear sometimes they're better off getting disrupted more by land south of Florida. Seems to allow them to pull back together. This one has that outer ring of mid level dry air that it cannot seem to shake or ingest fully, each time convection fires it draws more in collapsing the convection. The outflow apparent in the SW quadrant right now might be a clue to what's been going on with the pulses.Looks to me like it's about to shed the convection on the SE side. If it's going to strengthen it's right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 In addition to the issues of a large diffuse storm with a chronically disorganized center that just can't seem to capitalize on 24+ hours of a favorable environment, deja-vu with several TCs in the past few years... How much do people think the southeastern/plains drought is playing a factor here? Dry air continues to be ingested around the north, obvious on the vis sat... I know it's apples and oranges, but the record low # of Plains tornadoes this year was a different manifestation of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfman23601 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 The 75 MPH threshold is for sustained winds. Just because there was a wind gust reported at higher than 75 MPH doesn't mean it is a hurricane. I actually applaud the NHC for not upgrading this. I feel they have been too liberal with naming and upgrading storms in past seasons. Last thing we need is to call this a strong Cat 1 or weak Cat 2 based on a wind gust, then the next time around when there is a storm coming through with 90-100 MPH sustained winds, people try to ride it out because from experiencing Isaac, it wasn't that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 The Turtle Hurricane Center (THC) is upgrading Isaac to a hurricane with 80 mph sustained winds at 11 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 In addition to the issues of a large diffuse storm with a chronically disorganized center that just can't seem to capitalize on 24+ hours of a favorable environment, deja-vu with several TCs in the past few years... How much do people think the southeastern/plains drought is playing a factor here? Dry air continues to be ingested around the north, obvious on the vis sat... I know it's apples and oranges, but the record low # of Plains tornadoes this year was a different manifestation of this. Obvious on the WV too that the storm is drawing in a lot of dry air from the northern semi-circle and as a result what we have is a storm alternating between looking better and not so much. The northern part of the storm continues to mostly offset the draw from the south. Pretty remarkable really. BTW agree with those that are glad to see the NHC go back to being less liberal. When we get sustained SURFACE hurricane force winds by all means upgrade, until then this is fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 No worries.. the HRRR from 19z yesterday says it's a Cat 2. LOOK AT THE PRETTY SIMULATED RADAR! Lol....sort of like those beautiful 7 day GFS snowstorm maps that always come to fruition. The number of posts in the main thread over the last 2 days referencing imminent RI is rather long. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 There can be little argument that historically they have been overzealous with intensity much more often than they have been conservative. Apparently they are trying to change that now, which is their prerogative of course. It is a little confusing for an enthusiast that what makes a hurricane one year does not the next but something tells me they don't lay awake at night worrying if people like me will approve of their forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 The Turtle Hurricane Center (THC) is upgrading Isaac to a hurricane with 80 mph sustained winds at 11 am. You're going JB on us I see. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Hilarious seeing all the Facebook experts screaming about how NHC has an agenda, and conspiracy theories and such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Bobby Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 You're going JB on us I see. MDstorm Smoking THC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 15Z Update: Honing down on Boothville and New Orleans Area. For Boothville looking at general increase in winds to around 50mph around 17Z. Then some intermitted gusts up to 71mph after 23Z through 15Z. The forecasted wind speed on my Smartcast have been trending slightly downward. A previous peak of 90mph down to around 78mph. Still looking at next 24hrs rain accumulation os 1.8 to 3.4”. For the New Orleans area looking at winds to hover around 35mph through 22Z, then increasing to 40-50 with tempo winds up to 74mph from 22Z through 15Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 It's usually around this time people start speculating the storm was secretly seeded. :-/ who woulda thought as it was crossing into the gulf, that we'd still have a TS on our hands.. wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gulfcane Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 It's usually around this time people start speculating the storm was secretly seeded. :-/ who woulda thought as it was crossing into the gulf, that we'd still have a TS on our hands.. wow Oh you mean project storm fury that created an idea of double wind maximums and secondary eyewalls before there was such a thing as secondary eyewalls? In this case I think dry air might have more to do with it.And the NHC refuses to upgrade the storm in the name of "scientific accuracy", yet the very records they are trying to protect become compromised when a 976mb, 90kt FL, 63kt SFMR, 70kt dropsonde is called a tropical storm. Edit: 975mb...new dropsonde data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gulfcane Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 This is unbelievable for a tropical storm. And for the SFMR huggers that is a 66kt unflagged SFMR, and 94kt FL. unreal this is a tropical storm 155000 2808N 08735W 8441 01391 //// +156 //// 181092 094 066 021 01 155030 2807N 08733W 8425 01413 9912 +170 +170 183092 094 064 010 01 155100 2807N 08732W 8431 01414 9916 +180 +180 183091 093 066 007 01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Oh you mean project storm fury that created an idea of double wind maximums and secondary eyewalls before there was such a thing as secondary eyewalls? In this case I think dry air might have more to do with it. And the NHC refuses to upgrade the storm in the name of "scientific accuracy", yet the very records they are trying to protect become compromised when a 976mb, 90kt FL, 63kt SFMR, 70kt dropsonde is called a tropical storm. Because of it's rogue characteristics, I agree it should be classified as something stronger than a TS. Just it's TS wind field expansion is larger than with some of the strongest hurricanes out there. Kinda reminds me of JB a couple years ago bringing up a new forumula for tropical systems... I forget his specifics, but agree that something needs to be done here. People typically see TS's as wimpy, wimpy, wimpy.. As the strength and duration of Isaac may result in more damage than a strong hurricane. Almost seems like a pattern the last few years, with these types of tropical systems being more 'spread out'...and with unusually low pressures and strength over greater distances.. A north-east wind from 20 to 30 MPH (with higher gusts) for 18 hours already in the New Orleans area..while landfall is still like 12 hours away. Water has to be piling up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcshot Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 The Turtle Hurricane Center (THC) is upgrading Isaac to a hurricane with 80 mph sustained winds at 11 am. As an oldster who has been following this youngster on EasternWx and now here I say: AMEN! Go Turtle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 This is about as bad as that moment I read Irene wasn't a cat 1 at landfall in jersey since I rode out the "eye" at the beach in that one. Seriously, this is a storm that will hopefully provide info on why when everything seems to be perfect for strengthening in models 3 days out doesn't come to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Maybe it'll crawl along the coast and finally RI for the next day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Maybe it'll crawl along the coast and finally RI for the next day. lol...that dry air coming in from Arkansas makes me think if it wants an upgrade Isaac better show all it has right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Lol, it's almost like everyone ran outside after the 11 am advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Lol, it's almost like everyone ran outside after the 11 am advisory. Now it's like "oh no, the winds are up 4 knots, run for your lives!!!!!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 What are we thinking for top rainfall totals...10, 15"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 There can be little argument that historically they have been overzealous with intensity much more often than they have been conservative. I think there's a LOT of argument. Take a look at every storm that has RIed an/dor reached Category 4 or 5, and I guarantee there was a serious underforecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Obvious on the WV too that the storm is drawing in a lot of dry air from the northern semi-circle and as a result what we have is a storm alternating between looking better and not so much. The northern part of the storm continues to mostly offset the draw from the south. Pretty remarkable really. BTW agree with those that are glad to see the NHC go back to being less liberal. When we get sustained SURFACE hurricane force winds by all means upgrade, until then this is fine. Good to see you posting again. I too laud NHC adhering to strict criteria. Weather is one of the few realms where government-funded agencies (NWS, NOAA, NHC, etc) do not mix in politics. The scientific purity has kept an incredibly high quality for a federal product, and I hope it stays that way. Now perhaps it can be argued that central pressure should have greater weight in the criteria, or that there should be a "Severe Tropical Storm" entity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 I think there's a LOT of argument. Take a look at every storm that has RIed an/dor reached Category 4 or 5, and I guarantee there was a serious underforecast. Ok, point taken. What I was trying to refer to was listed sustained winds at landfall v. surface observation. I know friction causes some reduction of winds, but when a storm is listed at 90mph sustained and the highest gust measured on land is 65mph, the intensity was overdone. I will admit I base this mostly on anecdotal evidence, thus why it's in the banter thread, but I would be very surprised if it was not true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 I was hoping for a record 950 mb 60 knot TS, and NHC went and ruined it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brandon Sweat Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 So will 75 mph be the highest point strength wise- or do any of you expect any strengthening whatsoever as it moves closer to the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 So will 75 mph be the highest point strength wise- or do any of you expect any strengthening whatsoever as it moves closer to the coast? who knows, I think we see 80-85 but I was thinking 110+ a couple of days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Hilarious seeing all the Facebook experts screaming about how NHC has an agenda, and conspiracy theories and such. wait you mean Rush was wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Bobby Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 So will 75 mph be the highest point strength wise- or do any of you expect any strengthening whatsoever as it moves closer to the coast? I would normally expect a hurricane in this position to be weakening right now, but Isaac is only now coming together structurally. I'll guess we see a little more strengthening, but only for 6-8 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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