am19psu Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 New banter thread has been give. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 I didnt know if this should be its own thread or not, but for down the road, how big a dent will this put in some of the drought stricken areas north of the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Well so much for the tightening core winds that started to appear last night. The center is back to being a 50 mile wide slop of moderate winds again according to the last few passes. It is pretty amazing that some storms seemingly shrug off conditions much worse than Isaac has faced and intensify rather rapidly while others look to be completely disrupted by every little thing that isn't perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 This is the banter thread that will Put Isaac over the top. Extend TS watches to High Island. Maybe I'll have a glass of merlot tonight and call it a Tropical Storm Party, although I'm outside any warned areas. SW Pass of the Mississippi River. Bad day to be red fishing on a Boston Whaler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Great to see Isaac remain a TS this long. i'm loving watching a number of tropic weenies (and those who know better with bigger megaphones) just flip out because "conventional wisdom" about pressure/wind relationships is getting tossed out the window with each millibar that drops. Relationship doesn't always work perfectly, especially with broad storms that struggle with inner core issues, dry air, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Great to see Isaac remain a TS this long. i'm loving watching a number of tropic weenies (and those who know better with bigger megaphones) just flip out because "conventional wisdom" about pressure/wind relationships is getting tossed out the window with each millibar that drops. Relationship doesn't always work perfectly, especially with broad storms that struggle with inner core issues, dry air, etc. Jeff Masters on wunderground nailed this a couple days ago, granted he got the intensity forecast wrong. His idea was that the pressure would be in the 950s but it would struggle to get stronger than a category one because of the massive wind field. Hardly a new theory, but he nailed the general scenario pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 I'm no expert but Isaac is looking pretty great on visible, far and away the best he ever has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 6z GFS if it panned out would probably cause significant freshwater flooding in N.O. basically keeps them just East of the center for many hours. as it curls west then north. Anyone remember what the pumps can handle? I think its 1.0" for first hour than 0.5"/hr thereafter but not positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 While it may not be the catastrophic, doomsday scenario that was hinted at by various entities a few days ago (I somewhat bought into that hype) New Orleans isn't out of the woods by any means, and the next few days are going to taxing on the residents, city and parrish officials, and the infrastructure itself. It may be cliche, but I do hope they weather the storm as best they can, and damage/injuries/loss of life is minimal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 While it may not be the catastrophic, doomsday scenario that was hinted at by various entities a few days ago (I somewhat bought into that hype) New Orleans isn't out of the woods by any means, and the next few days are going to taxing on the residents, city and parrish officials, and the infrastructure itself. It may be cliche, but I do hope they weather the storm as best they can, and damage/injuries/loss of life is minimal. Amount of rain may end up being the biggest story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 13Z Update: Currently Tracking the cities of Boothville, Slidell, and Houma Terrebonne. Right now tracking potential wind gusts up to around 90mph possible in the Boothville area. Right now seeing winds 40-50 through 22Z, then increasing 60-70 from 22Z onward. Highest wind peak forecasted I have is at 01Z at 08063G91MPH. Slidell and Houma areas looking at wind gusts up to 70mph possible. General rainfall accumulations across the LA are to 29/13Z is between 1.3 and 2.7” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 http://google.org/crisismap/2012-tropical-system-isaac google crisis link..some cool info Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Cat 2 potential still on the table with upgrade to Cat 1 imminent...those eager to call bust probably jumped the gun a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Cat 2 potential still on the table with upgrade to Cat 1 imminent...those eager to call bust probably jumped the gun a bit. Yep. My totally non-scientific guess is a 100 mph cat 2 at landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Cat 2 potential still on the table with upgrade to Cat 1 imminent...those eager to call bust probably jumped the gun a bit. But those who were calling for a major in the central gulf get a pass. phew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 But those who were calling for a major in the central gulf get a pass. phew. I haven't seen any posts to that affect during the past 2 days when I've been followings things. Clearly they're going to bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 I haven't seen any posts to that affect during the past 2 days when I've been followings things. Clearly they're going to bust. there were plenty of respected red taggers hinting or outright calling for a major at some point. but it's been noted this forum is cup 1.5 full at most times.. i agree there's no reason to call a storm a bust before it hits but it's still pretty likely another case where the higher end ideas were akin to wishcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 What's the record storm surge from a tropical storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 there were plenty of respected red taggers hinting or outright calling for a major at some point. but it's been noted this forum is cup 1.5 full at most times.. i agree there's no reason to call a storm a bust before it hits but it's still pretty likely another case where the higher end ideas were akin to wishcasting. The satellite presentation has changed but it's still far from an impressive storm. It just cannot seem to shake the dry air.http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/imagery/wv-animated.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 The satellite presentation has changed but it's still far from an impressive storm. It just cannot seem to shake the dry air.http://www.ssd.noaa....wv-animated.gif agreed.. i don't think it will strengthen too much more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 I am very interested to see why they decided to not upgrade with 89 knot FL winds and a 70 knot dropsonde. Pretty perplexing actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 I am very interested to see why they decided to not upgrade with 89 knot FL winds and a 70 knot dropsonde. Pretty perplexing actually. Taunting JB to see if he goes so far Twitter suspends his account, obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Cat 2 potential still on the table with upgrade to Cat 1 imminent...those eager to call bust probably jumped the gun a bit. Nope...NHC still has Isaac as a tropical storm as of 10am CDT. I find the infuriation (in the main thread) over the fact that this is still classified as a T.S. somewhat amusing. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Why are so many here all of a sudden cane experts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Nope...NHC still has Isaac as a tropical storm as of 10am CDT. I find the infuriation (in the main thread) over the fact that this is still classified as a T.S. somewhat amusing. MDstorm No worries.. the HRRR from 19z yesterday says it's a Cat 2. LOOK AT THE PRETTY SIMULATED RADAR! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 there were plenty of respected red taggers hinting or outright calling for a major at some point. but it's been noted this forum is cup 1.5 full at most times.. i agree there's no reason to call a storm a bust before it hits but it's still pretty likely another case where the higher end ideas were akin to wishcasting. You're obviously welcome to call them out with many many posts about this on your board here. You and anyone else can also reduce your respect and trust for those that wishcast/make bad forecasts. Sometimes I think what's happening is people are discussing things and others turn it into or call it a forecast, which makes it a bit more complicated. Overall lack of skill at intensity forecasting probably a decent explanation too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 agreed.. i don't think it will strengthen too much more. I've been saying it elsewhere for 4-5 days. These big storms without a strong central core have a real hard time ever pulling it together. Someday we'll maybe understand why. Impressive to see the northern 1/2 surrounded by dry air which continues to get ingested every time the convection flares putting it back down again. Best case scenario though much needed rains without the devastation (aside of potential rain flooding) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 You're obviously welcome to call them out with many many posts about this on your board here. You and anyone else can also reduce your respect and trust for those that wishcast/make bad forecasts. Sometimes I think what's happening is people are discussing things and others turn it into or call it a forecast, which makes it a bit more complicated. Overall lack of skill at intensity forecasting probably a decent explanation too. I'm not calling anyone out specifically but I've been at this long enough to know that people with a very strong educational background can make poor forecasters. It's a simple fact that the discussions on this and other weather boards lean toward the positive in almost every instance... of course there are situations where it can't be done. Just look at twitter. You have a PhD in Ryan Maue of weatherbell and he's had some of the worst forecasts of anyone on the storm calling for RI like 6 times that never happened. NHC has done, overall, a fantastic job, so we can only use the "intensity forecasting" problem so much. The rest is wishcasting or something similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 No worries.. the HRRR from 19z yesterday says it's a Cat 2. LOOK AT THE PRETTY SIMULATED RADAR! HRRR didn't really do much. I followed the posts yesterday without saying anything. Not knocking anyone it was an interesting study. To me anyone it looks like there's still some interference http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/imagery/wv-animated.gif Note the north south arc of clouds SW of the center now getting draw back and out towards the dry air. What I think some were mistaking as a sign of rapid deepening/eye formation was just dry air entrained yet again. very odd storm, the semi circle of dry air in the mid levels just cannot be eradicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 I'm not calling anyone out specifically but I've been at this long enough to know that people with a very strong educational background can make poor forecasters. It's a simple fact that the discussions on this and other weather boards lean toward the positive in almost every instance... of course there are situations where it can't be done. Just look at twitter. You have a PhD in Ryan Maue of weatherbell and he's had some of the worst forecasts of anyone on the storm calling for RI like 6 times that never happened. NHC has done, overall, a fantastic job, so we can only use the "intensity forecasting" problem so much. The rest is wishcasting. I've mentioned the NHC intensity calls as being pretty good so far. I mean...I'm no TC expert, but I think they have done well in their thinking. It's clearly fighting a few factors and despite it looking like it will strengthen...probably will a bit..these things sometimes just don't want to obey weenies hopes. We'll see what happens today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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