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September 2012 General Discussion


Brewers

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Moisture will be a bit of a problem but yeah, that trough goes negative real fast.

GFS kind of has the same idea, juist a bit further south, but moisture is really going to be a huge problem.

Not to get hung up on specifics this far out, but with a trough taking a negative tilt like that you won't need a whole lot of moisture to get things popping

Granted, the EURO's about the only model showing something like that (GFS is a lot less amped). But it's something to definitely keep an eye on.

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Not to get hung up on specifics this far out, but with a trough taking a negative tilt like that you won't need a whole lot of moisture to get things popping

Granted, the EURO's about the only model showing something like that (GFS is a lot less amped). But it's something to definitely keep an eye on.

Oh I would agree it would at least be a "see text", lol. :lmao: But even the SPC stated in the day 4-8 that gulf trajectories are going to suck.

Check this out:

post-1834-0-61404400-1347133594_thumb.gi

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Lot of wind after the storm passed through...interesting

It's heading for Madison, something to look forward to. The high winds and its fast progression are due to this line being right next to the jet max! 125 mph winds at 300 mb over La Crosse, a little mixing and you easily get some TS force gusts.

post-645-0-30627600-1347146297_thumb.png

Classic ageostrophic divergence in the left exit region of the jet is driving this.

Also strong low level cold air advection behind the precip, so this is basically a cold front.

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I think clouds and showers will prevent temps from dropping too much, low 50's once again sounds like a good bet.

Yeah, I would think so. Where did this line come from? Thought it was supposed to be dry all weekend! :raining:

Edit: SWS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

818 PM CDT SAT SEP 8 2012

ILZ003>006-090215-

BOONE IL-LAKE IL-MCHENRY IL-WINNEBAGO IL-

818 PM CDT SAT SEP 8 2012

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 814 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED

SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING

FROM 19 MILES NORTH OF HEBRON TO SOUTH BELOIT TO 19 MILES NORTHWEST

OF LAKE SUMMERSET...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 50 MPH. THEY WILL REACH THE

WISCONSIN BORDER AROUND 845 PM CDT AND A LINE FROM ROCKFORD TO

CRYSTAL LAKE TO MUNDELEIN AROUND 915 PM CDT.

WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND

BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

This line is hauling it!

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