SpartyOn Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 No moisture to speak of... no outbreak. What a shocker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Looking forward to upper 60s this weekend. I for one am sick of having the AC on with high temps in the upper 80s. It's September for petes sake Yeah I hear you there! I don't think I've ran the AC as much as this year. Thinking the 90s are done finally. High today 86° - 48th day at or above 80°. Doing good with rainfall this month so far. 1.80° so far. Ground is soft and plants are lush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 We have had a presistent -NAO for most of the Summer. It has gotten us nowhere. The NAO should become relievent as we head into late Oct - Nov. I think neg NAO in the summer brings heat if I'm not mistaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 I think neg NAO in the summer brings heat if I'm not mistaken. It's more that the correlation is weaker...NAO doesn't have as big of an effect one way or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Yeah I hear you there! I don't think I've ran the AC as much as this year. Thinking the 90s are done finally. High today 86° - 48th day at or above 80°. Doing good with rainfall this month so far. 1.80° so far. Ground is soft and plants are lush. Truly, I am not criticizing your data or observations...but your location must be in an extremely unusual microclimate...like an "arctic bubble" in a sea of warmth. Chicago (ORD) has had 97 days of 80+ degrees this year and you've only had 48 days, even though the two locations are only 30-40 miles apart. Does the lake influence really make that much of a difference? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Looks like Saturday could remain in the 60s for much of northern IL...with a few 40s possible in rural areas by Monday morning if skies can clear out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Truly, I am not criticizing your data or observations...but your location must be in an extremely unusual microclimate...like an "arctic bubble" in a sea of warmth. Chicago (ORD) has had 97 days of 80+ degrees this year and you've only had 48 days, even though the two locations are only 30-40 miles apart. Does the lake influence really make that much of a difference? Actually if you include the 90s and 100s, then I am at 72 days AOA 80° for the year. The lake has a much bigger influence here then at ORD. 4 miles from the lake vs. about 11 miles. SE winds cool it off here, but not at ORD. A 10° difference between here and there is quite common during the summer. Lake breezes in general have more punch as you go up the western shore of Lake Michigan. It's nice having the free air conditioning! You'll probably find Racine and Milwaukee have similar tallies of warm temperatures this year. Edit: My OP was goofy sounding wasn't it! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 High today 86° - 48th day at or above 80°. Actually if you include the 90s and 100s, then I am at 72 days AOA 80° for the year. smdh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Actually if you include the 90s and 100s, then I am at 72 days AOA 80° for the year. The lake has a much bigger influence here then at ORD. 4 miles from the lake vs. about 11 miles. SE winds cool it off here, but not at ORD. A 10° difference between here and there is quite common during the summer. Lake breezes in general have more punch as you go up the western shore of Lake Michigan. It's nice having the free air conditioning! You'll probably find Racine and Milwaukee have similar tallies of warm temperatures this year. Yeah, that makes more sense...and I agree MKE and Racine are similar. I thought you were saying you only had 48 days AOA 80 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 smdh I loled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Pretty big discrepancy between the GFS and the EURO with regards to the large scale pattern over the Lakes next weekend. EURO has a trough cutting off over the Lakes with potential for a big rain event. GFS way more progressive with that trough, with little fanfare along the FROPA and cooler, drier air in its wake. Looking back to the ~August 10th cutoff that formed, EURO schooled the GFS hard. For the sake of interesting weather, I hope the EURO is right again. I'd definitely go with the Euro's depiction. Not only has it been more accurate than the GFS at this timeframe most of the summer, climo says it's time for a big ol' cutoff and the first taste of fall. Well, I was wrong about the Euro. Looks like the GFS was right about a progressive trough. At least there is a slight risk that someone could see some severe weather out of this and more importantly, some heavy rainfall to continue knocking back the drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 GFS and Euro are in incredible agreement out to 10 days. If they are correct, our first REAL cold shot comes after the 16th. I sure hope so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Yeah, that makes more sense...and I agree MKE and Racine are similar. I thought you were saying you only had 48 days AOA 80 degrees. Haha, I wish it was that cool this year! With more 80s coming I'm sure - I'll probably get above the 80 day count somewhere. Now Kenosha airport I'm sure is closer to ORD because it is about 7-8 miles inland. But it is not a good depiction on the rest of the city because most of it lies within 5 miles of the lake. Anyway, today looks like upper 70s. Clear and blue outside right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Trapper First freeze for anyone? I'm hoping for an early one this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Well, I was wrong about the Euro. Looks like the GFS was right about a progressive trough. At least there is a slight risk that someone could see some severe weather out of this and more importantly, some heavy rainfall to continue knocking back the drought. Tough to bet against the EURO, especially when it's so consistent (I think it was a solid 5-6 runs showing a cut off). I think the red flag was the UKIE not on board. Seems that model goes out of its way to bomb out storms in the med. range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Looks like a protracted dry period on both the EURO and the GFS after the Friday/Saturday rain. Good I say. Two weak-moderate Nino falls that were dry: 2002-03 2004-05 Subsequent winters were awesome. In contrast, Nino in 06-07 featured a wet falls. Following winter sucked the big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Looks like a protracted dry period on both the EURO and the GFS after the Friday/Saturday rain. Good I say. Two weak-moderate Nino falls that were dry: 2002-03 2004-05 Subsequent winters were awesome. In contrast, Nino in 06-07 featured a wet falls. Following winter sucked the big one. Until February 2007, for some of us. On the flip side, 2004-05 sucked for LAF. Moral of the story, sometimes hard to get region wide "awesome" winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Until February 2007, for some of us. On the flip side, 2004-05 sucked for LAF. Moral of the story, sometimes hard to get region wide "awesome" winters. VD 2007 was quite mediocre here. Fooking NAM clown maps notwithstanding. To your second point...yup. 2007-08s are definitely the exception. Although, IIRC, even that year was pretty crappy as you got closer to the Ohio River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 To your second point...yup. 2007-08s are definitely the exception. Although, IIRC, even that year was pretty crappy as you got closer to the Ohio River. Indianapolis (23.3") down to Evansville (10.5") were in sort of a screw zone that winter. Further east, central/southern Ohio struggled until March 2008 put them over the top. But yeah overall, a pretty good winter for many in terms of snowfall. Oh, and I'm working on a project trying to figure out the best winters for the region overall (based on snowfall totals). My preliminary findings of the top 5, since 1949-50. 1) 1977-78 2) 1981-82 3) 2007-08 4) 2010-11 5) 1978-79 I'm refining the list as I go, adding more sites and going back further back in time as well. Hopefully I'll have the results posted sometime before this winter starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Trapper First freeze for anyone? I'm hoping for an early one this year. I'm sure this is utter fantasy, and the 06 GFS changed it up, but last nights Euro and GFS were almost identical thru day 10, which I never see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Actually if you include the 90s and 100s, then I am at 72 days AOA 80° for the year. The lake has a much bigger influence here then at ORD. 4 miles from the lake vs. about 11 miles. SE winds cool it off here, but not at ORD. A 10° difference between here and there is quite common during the summer. Lake breezes in general have more punch as you go up the western shore of Lake Michigan. It's nice having the free air conditioning! You'll probably find Racine and Milwaukee have similar tallies of warm temperatures this year. Edit: My OP was goofy sounding wasn't it! Lol Isn't it true that when you state your departures from average, you're taking your average temps for the month and comparing them to ORD's average? Does Waukegan even have its own average temps on record? I'm just asking, because your departures usually seem lower than most areas, for instance April being below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Isn't it true that when you state your departures from average, you're taking your average temps for the month and comparing them to ORD's average? Does Waukegan even have its own average temps on record? I'm just asking, because your departures usually seem lower than most areas, for instance April being below normal. Yes, UGN had its own averages going back at least 30 years. If I was running with ORD's averages I would have more months close to normal and even below average. Kenosha and Racine have there own averages too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Yes, UGN had its own averages going back at least 30 years. If I was running with ORD's averages I would have more months close to normal and even below average. Kenosha and Racine have there own averages too. Thanks for the clarification. It just seems weird that frequently Waukegan is cooler than many lakeshore communities in S Wisconsin just to the north, although in the case of the Milwaukee area the UHI comes into effect, and Waukegan is so far from the city of Chicago that the UHI effect is minimal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Indianapolis (23.3") down to Evansville (10.5") were in sort of a screw zone that winter. Further east, central/southern Ohio struggled until March 2008 put them over the top. But yeah overall, a pretty good winter for many in terms of snowfall. Oh, and I'm working on a project trying to figure out the best winters for the region overall (based on snowfall totals). My preliminary findings of the top 5, since 1949-50. 1) 1977-78 2) 1981-82 3) 2007-08 4) 2010-11 5) 1978-79 I'm refining the list as I go, adding more sites and going back further back in time as well. Hopefully I'll have the results posted sometime before this winter starts. Very cool! The more I read about 1981-82, the more impressed I am by its combination of snow and cold. I believe it was much more wintry (relative to normal) in the Upper Midwest compared to us southerners in IL/IN/OH...but a good old-fashioned winter all around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Thanks for the clarification. It just seems weird that frequently Waukegan is cooler than many lakeshore communities in S Wisconsin just to the north, although in the case of the Milwaukee area the UHI comes into effect, and Waukegan is so far from the city of Chicago that the UHI effect is minimal. I have to say Waukegan has the coolest lows between MKE & CHI near the lake. It's a great radiational cooling location! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Looks like a cooler, rainy day ahead tomorrow. Excited for the return back to the cooler weather we saw in mid August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 June 13th was our last day with a high below 70; it looks likely that streak will be broken in the next couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 The much anticipated 0 Degree 850 line makes a return to the states on the 12z Euro run... not that it will really happen... but it's fun to look at... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Here you go cooler weather lovers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Gotta chillax on the D7 and 240hr temp plots guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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