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September 2012 General Discussion


Brewers

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Pretty big discrepancy between the GFS and the EURO with regards to the large scale pattern over the Lakes next weekend. EURO has a trough cutting off over the Lakes with potential for a big rain event. GFS way more progressive with that trough, with little fanfare along the FROPA and cooler, drier air in its wake. Looking back to the ~August 10th cutoff that formed, EURO schooled the GFS hard. For the sake of interesting weather, I hope the EURO is right again.

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Pretty big discrepancy between the GFS and the EURO with regards to the large scale pattern over the Lakes next weekend. EURO has a trough cutting off over the Lakes with potential for a big rain event. GFS way more progressive with that trough, with little fanfare along the FROPA and cooler, drier air in its wake. Looking back to the ~August 10th cutoff that formed, EURO schooled the GFS hard. For the sake of interesting weather, I hope the EURO is right again.

I'd definitely go with the Euro's depiction. Not only has it been more accurate than the GFS at this timeframe most of the summer, climo says it's time for a big ol' cutoff and the first taste of fall.

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I'd definitely go with the Euro's depiction. Not only has it been more accurate than the GFS at this timeframe most of the summer, climo says it's time for a big ol' cutoff and the first taste of fall.

Yup, tis the season. Although, these types of cut-offs are seemingly always described by HPC as "anomalous". So I won't be mortgaging the house to put a wager on this one. But we'll see how it goes.

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Yup, tis the season. Although, these types of cut-offs are seemingly always described by HPC as "anomalous". So I won't be mortgaging the house to put a wager on this one. But we'll see how it goes.

In the GFS vs. Euro debate for this coming weekend, the strength and placement of Leslie may be the determining factor. The GFS depicts a continuing progressive/zonal flow, with the wave passing through the GL, while on the Euro, Leslie impedes the flow, just as the trough hits the Midwest. The trough then cuts offs over the area and a surface low forms giving us some nice rains. We may have to watch Leslie to determine next weekend's weather in this area.

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Today was day 49 AOA 90 here. Tomorrow could be the big 5-0.

Only 1 90 degree day here since August 9. Seems like we may have very few 90s left to go. There was a chance to add on last week but the brunt of the ridging was felt farther north. The calendar is becoming a factor and we've also been doing much better with rain lately.

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