turtlehurricane Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Saturday morning looks to be interesting in southern WI! Or could be at least. Temperature dropping quick this evening here. Already 46°, with a 40° dewpoint. Yeah, maybe a dusting... though snow melting on contact is more likely if it actually did snow, and it could end up just being rain given the warm sfc temps. I'm leaning towards rain given the current forecast but a small change could make the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Yeah, maybe a dusting... though snow melting on contact is more likely if it actually did snow, and it could end up just being rain given the warm sfc temps. I'm leaning towards rain given the current forecast but a small change could make the difference. Eh, there's a shot in W Wisconsin and NW Illinois in the freezing/subfreezing temp zone on the GFS, but the NAM is less than enthusiastic about the system as a whole, not giving anyone east of Madison any precip at all, and only light amounts in W Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Eh, there's a shot in W Wisconsin and NW Illinois in the freezing/subfreezing temp zone on the GFS, but the NAM is less than enthusiastic about the system as a whole, not giving anyone east of Madison any precip at all, and only light amounts in W Wisconsin. Considering the origin of the potential system it is not a surprise the NAM is struggling with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Sun is rising and revealing the gloominess of today, solid band of precip off to the west associated with low level warm air advection and the associated frontogenesis. Fairly cold air on our side of the front, 850s between 4-5 °C. The WAA isn't expected to get to Madison, rather 850s will cool slowly throughout the day from weak CAA as some precip from the warm upglide makes its way in. Eh, there's a shot in W Wisconsin and NW Illinois in the freezing/subfreezing temp zone on the GFS, but the NAM is less than enthusiastic about the system as a whole, not giving anyone east of Madison any precip at all, and only light amounts in W Wisconsin. My guess is if some decent bands/showers set up with moderate rates we'll see snowfall reports from dynamical cooling, boundary layer temps are too warm for light precip to make it to the ground frozen. Pretty common this time of year to have cold enough 850s with too warm of a boundary layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 doubt i drop below 45 during this stretch...first freeze still close to a month off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 doubt i drop below 45 during this stretch...first freeze still close to a month off How cold did it get there on Wednesday? 40°? Had about 5 minutes of sun and now it's gone -probably for the whole day too! Starting out at 47°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 How cold did it get there on Wednesday? 40°? Had about 5 minutes of sun and now it's gone -probably for the whole day too! Starting out at 47°. no way...maybe 45-46 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Alek and Tropical have the same climate it would seem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 My point and click says 29 for Saturday night. And then mid 70s for next weekend. Cmon, get cool and stay cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Saying 32F here... I'm ready to be done with the growing season... hopefully the trees will kick in and really start changing color. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Considering the origin of the potential system it is not a surprise the NAM is struggling with it. You're right, now the 0z NAM is going bonkers with it, though still looks like a cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 50 right now in many locations in SW and SC Wisconsin in the rain cooled air. Looks like the northern edge of the band may just sweep the middle of the county, but the bulk of the rain will stay in S Milwaukee County and the southern row of counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Have stayed out of the rain completely here...had sun for awhile, but now back into the clouds... temps hovering around 61F or so...pretty nice day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1978 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0136 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL...WCNTRL IND CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 211836Z - 212000Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CNTRL IL INTO WRN IND THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL INITIALLY BE THE MAIN THREAT. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT COULD ALSO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WW ISSUANCE MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION ONCE THE SCENARIO BEGINS TO UNFOLD. DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY INITIATING AND INCREASING IN INTENSITY JUST TO THE EAST OF A DEEPENING SFC LOW CENTERED OVER NE MO. THE STORMS ARE LOCATED ON THE NERN EDGE OF INSTABILITY AND ON THE NOSE OF A MID-LEVEL JET MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. THE STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET IS CREATING FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SEVERE STORMS IN SPITE OF THE WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE. THE WSR-88D VWP AT SPRINGFIELD IL CURRENTLY SHOWS ABOUT 65 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WITH SUBSTANTIAL VEERING WITH HEIGHT FROM 2 TO 3 KM. THIS COULD SUPPORT A SUPERCELL THREAT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS NWD INTO THE MCD AREA AND INSTABILITY INCREASES. 500 MB TEMPS OF -15 C TO -19C WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH THE MORE INTENSE CORES. IN ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED SOME ACROSS ECNTRL IL INTO WRN IND AS SHOWN ON MESOSANALYSIS WITH 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES NOW AROUND 7.0 C/KM. THIS ALONG WITH THE STRONG WIND FIELDS AT LOW-LEVELS MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AS CELLS MATURE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT COULD ALSO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IF THE CELLS CAN ROTATE AND PERSIST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Been in the mid 50s since the rain started. Nice soaking rain at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 SC Wisconsin getting poured on still. I wonder if this constant rain will affect temps later once it clears out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Now this is a beautiful point and click, is it not? http://forecast.weat...dlh&zmx=1&zmy=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 SC Wisconsin getting poured on still. I wonder if this constant rain will affect temps later once it clears out. Boy is it ever pouring under that band! Down to 50°! Forget 60s today, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 freeze watch out for entire area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 freeze watch out for entire area... I'm assuming it's probably still a couple weeks early for a hard freeze in your area compared to climo? There was frost here this week but just a light frost with a low of 33F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Only made it to 58 today. Coolest day of the season so far during the day. The multiple 90s and 100s are a far distant memory now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Had to turn on the heat a little while ago! High of only 56° today - big forecast bust on temperature. 0.38" of rain so far. Temperature is really going to drop if it clears out. Only 50° right now. What the NAM is showing for precipitation type tomorrow morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 66º for the high and 0.41" of rainfall at LAF today. 0.66" through 8:00pm at IND, which puts them at 6.06" for the month...good for the 11th wettest September on record (since 1871). Still more to go down there tonight. 10.37" in 2003 9.33" in 1926 8.17" in 1896 8.06" in 1989 7.61" in 1996 7.54" in 1921 7.46" in 1895 7.31" in 1890 7.18" in 1932 6.94" in 1879 6.06" in 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 It's in the 30s already in Rhinelander, Tomahawk, and Eagle River under predominantly clear skies. A band of precipitation associated with the disturbance is approaching NW Wisconsin as we speak. I'm not sure it will make it that far east, but if it does, it will be interesting to watch the temperature and precipitation trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 Snowing now in Hibbing, MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 There were reports of snowflakes in the UP. I just starting digging into todays reports, probably already mentioned here. Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 Snowing now in Hibbing, MN. The airport reported light rain though at 35/32 as of 9:53 central. Do you have a more recent report? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 The airport reported light rain though at 35/32 as of 9:53 central. Do you have a more recent report? I got reports off facebook from a local news station, they posted pics of it. I did see the Hibbing ob has rain now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 Late morning over southern WI, NAM suggesting upper 30s to near 40°! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 yeah reports of snow northwest of Duluth near Grand Rapids, MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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