Stebo Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 Remember not to spend several hours outside totally nude tonight. Trying to blind the neighbors eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 Trying to blind the neighbors eh? Lol! Down to 44° here already! ...Dang, Burlington, WI at 39° now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 12z GFS had a disturbance that was borderline rain/snow Friday night into Saturday morning over the arrowhead of Minnesota. Now the 18z does the same thing mainly in NW Wisconsin. Could be something to watch for the first snow system in the Upper Midwest. Is that feasible? I know they have latitude on their side, but it's still only mid-September. btw...not a rhetorical question. Not certain of the snow climatology up thataway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 Is that feasible? I know they have latitude on their side, but it's still only mid-September. btw...not a rhetorical question. Not certain of the snow climatology up thataway. Typically in September in NE MN there is a dusting in some areas. DLH averages 0.1". I guess it is possible to see a little this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 Is that feasible? I know they have latitude on their side, but it's still only mid-September. btw...not a rhetorical question. Not certain of the snow climatology up thataway. I'm pretty sure they've had September snows of some consequence in the Northwoods of Wisconsin and Northern Minnesota, and much of the precip with the disturbance/clipper is expected to occur overnight. This wouldn't even be a question if it looked like it would occur during the daylight hours, but the timing appears to make it plausible to at least see some snow mix in, given how close we were today (37 and rain in Manitowish Waters and 41 and rain in Rhinelander I believe). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 I remember driving through campus (UW-L) and seeing college kids building snowmen around Octoberfest...I think it was Sept 30 or something...would have been late 1990's i think... Just enough snow to cover the grass. That parade was very cold the next day. Winter jackets and stocking caps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 Typically in September in NE MN there is a dusting in some areas. DLH averages 0.1". I guess it is possible to see a little this weekend. I'm pretty sure they've had September snows of some consequence in the Northwoods of Wisconsin and Northern Minnesota, and much of the precip with the disturbance/clipper is expected to occur overnight. This wouldn't even be a question if it looked like it would occur during the daylight hours, but the timing appears to make it plausible to at least see some snow mix in, given how close we were today (37 and rain in Manitowish Waters and 41 and rain in Rhinelander I believe). Seems like it's possible then. I love snow but September seems a touch too early, even for me. I think the earliest I've ever witnessed snow imby was ~6th or 7th of October. And even then it was only a few passing wet flakes. Given that at least a little light snow in Sept isn't uncommon in N WI/MN, I bet if one were to scour the record books there was probably a late Sept. plastering of a couple of inches at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 Trying to blind the neighbors eh? I'm sure there would be a swift police response since there's a sorority house next door to my apartment building. Sparta down to 34 and Madison down to 42, quick radiational cooling underway! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 Seems like it's possible then. I love snow but September seems a touch too early, even for me. I think the earliest I've ever witnessed snow imby was ~6th or 7th of October. And even then it was only a few passing wet flakes. Given that at least a little light snow in Sept isn't uncommon in N WI/MN, I bet if one were to scour the record books there was probably a late Sept. plastering of a couple of inches at some point. We had a thread last year on September snow, I'm not sure which forum it was located in, but I'm pretty sure there was at least one snow event listed that impacted the Upper Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 10.98" of precip. here since July 22nd. That's just 1/2" less than the total precip. observed in the Jan 1-Jul 21 period. Wet couple of months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 Seems like it's possible then. I love snow but September seems a touch too early, even for me. I think the earliest I've ever witnessed snow imby was ~6th or 7th of October. And even then it was only a few passing wet flakes. Given that at least a little light snow in Sept isn't uncommon in N WI/MN, I bet if one were to scour the record books there was probably a late Sept. plastering of a couple of inches at some point. You would be correct. DLH had 2.4" on Sept. 18, 1991. That's the biggest total I could find. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 Turtle- Winds went SE here...Sparta should be about done with dropping... Still be crazy how cold that hollow gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 Calm winds here, at 42°. Probably hit the high 30s by midnight at this rate. Burlington, WI down to 36°, which is in a bowl area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 Turtle- Winds went SE here...Sparta should be about done with dropping... Still be crazy how cold that hollow gets. Sparta at freezing! Could drop a few more degrees as frost grows near the ground and lowers the dewpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 So, Tropical, err Cromartie, how's that "good luck getting me below 40F" going? I see a Wunderground observation right now of 40 on the nose. Doesn't surprise me given you're away from the urban heat island and not right next to the lake. You will probably experience at least a roof frost, if not a plant damager. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 39° now on Mt. Cromartie. Wow, 30° in Sparta now. Dropping like it's hot there! Flirting with 40° here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 So, Tropical, err Cromartie, how's that "good luck getting me below 40F" going? I see a Wunderground observation right now of 40 on the nose. Doesn't surprise me given you're away from the urban heat island and not right next to the lake. You will probably experience at least a roof frost, if not a plant damager. Down to 37 now at West Bend.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 Down to 37 now at West Bend.. I thought for sure you were going to post the 0z GFS maps about 84 hours out, where a clipper type system is perilously close to being a consideration for some frozen precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 Already down to 42 here. Looks like mid 30s with some patchy frost tonight here in the Rock River Valley. Will easily be the coldest night of the season so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 39.9 in Howell at 12:30. Frost is pretty much a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 I thought for sure you were going to post the 0z GFS maps about 84 hours out, where a clipper type system is perilously close to being a consideration for some frozen precip. That's pretty crazy looking! Down to 40.1° here. 39° at Kenosha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 That's pretty crazy looking! Down to 40.1° here. 39° at Kenosha. Yeah, the reason I'm talking about it is because it is no longer in fantasy land. Even though it is highly unlikely to be much if any accumulation from any disturbance this time of year, it will be interesting to even get one snow observation or at least mix observation out of this potential event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 Interesting scenario on the 0z GFS that drops snow on parts of WI. A very strong wave drops southeast across the area with a nearly 100kt jet streak at H5, coupled with very cold air aloft for this time of year (-16 deg C at 700mb) and a small pocket of -6 deg C at 850mb. The column gets cold enough for snow during the early morning hours as this run shows sfc temps getting into the upper 20's. Something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 I thought for sure you were going to post the 0z GFS maps about 84 hours out, where a clipper type system is perilously close to being a consideration for some frozen precip. Just saw it lol WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 Interesting scenario on the 0z GFS that drops snow on parts of WI. A very strong wave drops southeast across the area with a nearly 100kt jet streak at H5, coupled with very cold air aloft for this time of year (-16 deg C at 700mb) and a small pocket of -6 deg C at 850mb. The column gets cold enough for snow during the early morning hours as this run shows sfc temps getting into the upper 20's. Something to watch. So crazy we are legitimately talking about this on September 18!!! And 84hr GFS too insane!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 39.9 in Howell at 12:30. Frost is pretty much a lock. Conditions at: KOZW (HOWELL , MI, US) observed 0455 UTC 19 September 2012 Temperature: 5.0°C (41°F) Dewpoint: 1.9°C (35°F) [RH = 80%] No it's not 39.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 Okay you guys forced me to do this lol. GFS precip type early Sat. Can't believe I'm posting this on Sep 19th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 Interesting scenario on the 0z GFS that drops snow on parts of WI. A very strong wave drops southeast across the area with a nearly 100kt jet streak at H5, coupled with very cold air aloft for this time of year (-16 deg C at 700mb) and a small pocket of -6 deg C at 850mb. The column gets cold enough for snow during the early morning hours as this run shows sfc temps getting into the upper 20's. Something to watch. It is the right time of day, I would like to see the 850mb temps a touch colder, -6 is borderline this time of year. Still incredible to be talking about this irregardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 surface to 500mb max temps through the column says it would be cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 Got a Present for you Tropical!! In all seriousness though, pretty good shot that some one in the Upper Midwest/lakes will be seeing their first flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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