Tropical Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Few quick pictures. Greenhouse is almost done. Started this project last month. All that is left is the siding, greenhouse plastic and front door. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 - Nice greenhouse in the making Tropical! That should keep your plants warm and toasty. You probably won't need to cut back your plants now over the winter since you have this!? ... Tonight seems a repeat of last night, about 60°, mostly clear with similar dewpoints in the lower 50s. Hoping for some rain tomorrow. - Amounts don't look to be too impressive though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Burlington is reporting 45/45 right now, but that observation site always seems questionable. It was 52 the hour before, which I could actually believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 The only thing I have to say to all of the cold misers is be careful what you wish for. Don't get too excited about wasting all of this cold air now then when the heart of winter gets here it's 1997 all over again. Exactly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Exactly... Exactly what? That Powerball is drawing comparisons to one of the strongest El Ninos ever. This winter is not going to be anywhere near an El Nino of that magnitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Few quick pictures. Greenhouse is almost done. Started this project last month. All that is left is the siding, greenhouse plastic and front door. Please brick yourself up in that. THNX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 A similar trough moved in during September 2007 -- actually right around the same timeframe in the month. 850 mb temps were 0 to -4 over a large part of the area as depicted here. However, in MKE the high was 59 and the low was 40. Point being, it's very hard to get a freeze here this early in the season. Long range models now moving toward moderation toward the end of the month as the anomalous trough lifts out and the ridge builds in from the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 A period of above normal temps is probably a good bet as we head into the medium range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 A similar trough moved in during September 2007 -- actually right around the same timeframe in the month. 850 mb temps were 0 to -4 over a large part of the area as depicted here. However, in MKE the high was 59 and the low was 40. Point being, it's very hard to get a freeze here this early in the season. Long range models now moving toward moderation toward the end of the month as the anomalous trough lifts out and the ridge builds in from the west. Get ready for a 2007-08 winter redux then. :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Exactly what? That Powerball is drawing comparisons to one of the strongest El Ninos ever. This winter is not going to be anywhere near an El Nino of that magnitude. It was a hypothetical example. I guess that wasn't as obvious as I figured it would be. But the point is be careful what you wish for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 So far lots of clouds today. About 71 right now. Thinking a frost on the ground might be a stretch, but elevated surfaces (i.e. roof tops) might be cold enough for frost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 So far lots of clouds today. About 71 right now. Thinking a frost on the ground might be a stretch, but elevated surfaces (i.e. roof tops) might be cold enough for frost. filtered sun all day here...liking my chances for some gusty thundershowers this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 So far lots of clouds today. About 71 right now. Thinking a frost on the ground might be a stretch, but elevated surfaces (i.e. roof tops) might be cold enough for frost. Anyone within six miles of Lake Michigan (except Tropical) probably will not see frost tomorrow night, though many outlying areas from about Rockford and the Quad Cities north probably will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 thin ribbon of decent instability ahead of the front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Anyone within six miles of Lake Michigan (except Tropical) probably will not see frost tomorrow night, though many outlying areas from about Rockford and the Quad Cities north probably will. Probably right. He was saying Milwaukee won't get below 40. That may be true, but he shouldn't compare that to his location- outside of the UHI. Last September we had some light frost at about 35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 actually a decent stormy look to the sky right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted September 17, 2012 Author Share Posted September 17, 2012 Some cells starting to pop up near Janesville. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1950 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0130 PM CDT MON SEP 17 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI...SERN WI...NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 171830Z - 171930Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT SUMMARY...A HAIL THREAT WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER TSTMS FORMING ALONG A COLD FRONT ACROSS LOWER MI. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR FARTHER SE THIS AFTERNOON INTO PARTS OF SERN WI AND NRN IL. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SVR HAIL...BUT A WW IS UNLIKELY. DISCUSSION...18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT ACROSS NRN LOWER MI EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS LM TOWARDS THE IA/IL BORDER...ATTENDANT TO A WEAK SFC LOW POSITIONED W OF APN. WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT...COMBINED WITH MODEST MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...HAVE SUSTAINED TSTMS OVER NRN LOWER MI...OCCASIONALLY DISPLAYING THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP MORE RECENTLY FARTHER S ACROSS ERN IA/SRN WI. THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD...WHERE STRONGER HEATING HAS OCCURRED WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 70S F. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAVE YIELDED ESTIMATED MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG. STRENGTHENING MIDLEVEL FLOW...AND RESULTANT EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 40 KTS...WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL ACCOMPANYING THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE CORES...DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF WEAK INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THE MAGNITUDE/AREAL COVERAGE OF THE HAIL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LOW TO WARRANT WW CONSIDERATION. ..ROGERS/MEAD.. 09/17/2012 ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...LOT...MKX...DVN... LAT...LON 45348424 45478393 45458357 44998322 44528338 44048445 43218562 42528673 41978796 41488909 41518988 41969006 42318990 43158827 43618705 44498550 45348424 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 53F...rain about finished...feels like late Oct right now...very nice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Nice line of storms moving east. ST-Warning out by RFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxhstn74 Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Update: Colder weather on schedule this week>>> http://weatherhistor...xt-week-to.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Again, good model agreement out to 240 hours, it does look like midweek next week the Midwest sees a warmup, except that trough might stick around the great lakes. Lucky suckers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Again, good model agreement out to 240 hours, it does look like midweek next week the Midwest sees a warmup, except that trough might stick around the great lakes. Lucky suckers. What part of MN are you in? Meanwhile, these storms are getting their act together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 I'm in east central, I'd love to think the long range gfs is right and that 1020 high keeps the western heat...west. Not going to bank on that though. I still say we all see a pretty good shot of Indian Summer or whatever you want to call it around the end of September/beginning of October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted September 17, 2012 Author Share Posted September 17, 2012 Half dollar sized hail dropping from that cell headed straight towards MKE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 I'm in east central, I'd love to think the long range gfs is right and that 1020 high keeps the western heat...west. Not going to bank on that though. I still say we all see a pretty good shot of Indian Summer or whatever you want to call it around the end of September/beginning of October. Huh, I am a prophet, according to at least one local pro met: ALTHOUGH THIS COLD PATTERN DEVELOPING IS THE FIRST IN A LONG TIME FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST...LOOKING AT SIMILAR SCENARIOS IN THE PAST WHICH HAD THE SAME TYPE OF PATTERN /1952/1988/2003/...THE COLD AIR QUICKLY ABATED BY THE FIRST WEEK OF OCTOBER...WITH EVEN ONE DAY NEAR A RECORD HIGH. LOOKING AT THE CFC /SEASONAL CLIMATE FORECAST FROM CPC/ DOES ILLUSTRATE THE COMMON THEME THE UPPER MIDWEST HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING...WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING FALL/EARLY WINTER. BASED ON THE EL NINO PATTERN FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST WINTERS...AND HOW SIMILAR YEARS HAD THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...WILL LIKELY SEE MORE OF A WARMER WINTER THAN COLD. BUT AGAIN...THIS IS BASED ON CLIMATE MODELS WHICH ARE ALWAYS MODIFYING THE MEAN PATTERN. ..JLT.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Huh, I am a prophet, according to at least one local pro met: ALTHOUGH THIS COLD PATTERN DEVELOPING IS THE FIRST IN A LONG TIME FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST...LOOKING AT SIMILAR SCENARIOS IN THE PAST WHICH HAD THE SAME TYPE OF PATTERN /1952/1988/2003/...THE COLD AIR QUICKLY ABATED BY THE FIRST WEEK OF OCTOBER...WITH EVEN ONE DAY NEAR A RECORD HIGH. LOOKING AT THE CFC /SEASONAL CLIMATE FORECAST FROM CPC/ DOES ILLUSTRATE THE COMMON THEME THE UPPER MIDWEST HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING...WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING FALL/EARLY WINTER. BASED ON THE EL NINO PATTERN FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST WINTERS...AND HOW SIMILAR YEARS HAD THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...WILL LIKELY SEE MORE OF A WARMER WINTER THAN COLD. BUT AGAIN...THIS IS BASED ON CLIMATE MODELS WHICH ARE ALWAYS MODIFYING THE MEAN PATTERN. ..JLT.. All I gotta say: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted September 17, 2012 Author Share Posted September 17, 2012 Well walking across campus when it's downpouring is a major buzzkill... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Huh, I am a prophet, according to at least one local pro met: ALTHOUGH THIS COLD PATTERN DEVELOPING IS THE FIRST IN A LONG TIME FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST...LOOKING AT SIMILAR SCENARIOS IN THE PAST WHICH HAD THE SAME TYPE OF PATTERN /1952/1988/2003/...THE COLD AIR QUICKLY ABATED BY THE FIRST WEEK OF OCTOBER...WITH EVEN ONE DAY NEAR A RECORD HIGH. LOOKING AT THE CFC /SEASONAL CLIMATE FORECAST FROM CPC/ DOES ILLUSTRATE THE COMMON THEME THE UPPER MIDWEST HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING...WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING FALL/EARLY WINTER. BASED ON THE EL NINO PATTERN FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST WINTERS...AND HOW SIMILAR YEARS HAD THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...WILL LIKELY SEE MORE OF A WARMER WINTER THAN COLD. BUT AGAIN...THIS IS BASED ON CLIMATE MODELS WHICH ARE ALWAYS MODIFYING THE MEAN PATTERN. ..JLT.. lol at those cherry picked yrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Well walking across campus when it's downpouring is a major buzzkill... A light rain; I find, is quite nice to walk in. Long as you have a raincoat! Should be raining here by 5. Topped out at 78 I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Few quick pictures. Greenhouse is almost done. Started this project last month. All that is left is the siding, greenhouse plastic and front door. could have been a nice smokehouse.. instead you go full lettuce vag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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