BowMeHunter Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 GFS and Euro are in incredible agreement out to 10 days. If they are correct, our first REAL cold shot comes after the 16th. I sure hope so. not too shabby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 I certainly won't be posting any more long range maps. but goshdangitall. The last umpteen runs of the GFS, especially today's 12z, would put smiles on a lot of faces from Minnesota down to Florida and up the east coast by the end of September. Just lock that pattern in until the end of October and then anything can happen as far as I'm concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 lol.. nailed week 1 here.. week 2 probably a C grade.. To early to grade week 3 Lol. I was a little strict on my grading but who cares at this point this thread has turned into a free for all posting of non-sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 Why NOT get cold air in Sept and Oct? ...avg temps around here in NDJFM are plenty cold for blizzards... Heck...i'd take below avg temps from June until mid Nov...then a normal DJFM... Sweatin' like a pig today, even with low 40F dew points...strong south wind is pushing the temp past 80F this afternoon. I hate building trusses... Working on a large shed project...ugh...not sure what i got myself into here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 CPC ups the ante yet again. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 CPC ups the ante yet again. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif Dang Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 ~168 hours (7 full days) is out far enough in my opinion. If I would want to share something beyond that, I'd just provide a link to it or describe it in words. - I know some of the maps take up a decent amount of storage space. Temperature leveling off here around 71-72°. Not one cloud in the sky! There is plenty of major cold within 168 hours now for much of the Plains/Midwest. The long-range was rock steady, and now appears to be coming to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjwise Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 I certainly won't be posting any more long range maps. but goshdangitall. The last umpteen runs of the GFS, especially today's 12z, would put smiles on a lot of faces from Minnesota down to Florida and up the east coast by the end of September. Just lock that pattern in until the end of October and then anything can happen as far as I'm concerned. More of the same from the 12z Euro too. Just a train of cold shots all the way out to 240hrs again, both in the ensemble and the operational - run-to-run consistency that has been totally lacking this year. Was fabulous here today - low 70's and nonexistent humidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 Love it... Today is too warm....right around 80F all afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 My point and click: ahhhhhhhhhh. It's about time. 7-DAY FORECAST Tonight Mostly clear, with a low around 57. South wind around 8 mph. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 82. South southwest wind 5 to 8 mph becoming west northwest in the afternoon. Sunday Night A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50. North northwest wind 6 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Monday A slight chance of showers before 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 58. Northwest wind 9 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Monday Night Patchy frost after 4am. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low around 34. Northwest wind 5 to 13 mph. Tuesday Patchy frost before 7am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 59. Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 42. Wednesday A slight chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 64. Wednesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 44. Thursday Partly sunny, with a high near 61. Thursday Night A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 43. Friday A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 57. Friday Night A slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 42. Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 CPC ups the ante yet again. http://www.cpc.ncep....610temp.new.gif That's an impressive map for this early in the season. I'm not doubting that will happen! Looks like 2 days of 70s then a string of 60s, maybe even barely 60s on Tuesday here. A nice night tonight - not too cold or too warm. Currently 59°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 Wowza Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 The ever-chilly KARB showing 46 right now...local Wunderground station showing closer to 50-52. Going to pull out the MSU hoodie swag for tonights big game. Go Green! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 Wowza I see your bet and I raise you an even larger pocket of <30 temps for Wednesday morning Btw I hope this is wrong because I'd like to still get veggies out of my garden and the prospects of frost this soon disparages me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 NWS forecast down to 36 °F for Madison, GFS showing 33 °F. This could easily become the first freeze of the year for rural areas (which is what counts agriculturally), probably only frost in the city. Loving the continuous forecast highs below 70 °F after today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 NWS Forecast for: 3 Miles SE Lafayette IN Tuesday: A 20 percent chance of showers before 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 62. Northwest wind 11 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 41. Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 64. Wednesday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 49. Thursday: A 30 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 69. Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52. Friday: A 40 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 68. Friday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47. Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 64. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 Dang, Tuesday night looks cold! Got 38-39° forecast, just up the road over the border it's 36°. Would love to get the frost to get rid of the ragweed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 It's the NAM, but at least I am not posting 240 hour maps any more. http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false Go ahead. Only SpartyOn has a bug up his ass about that. I mean, it's one thing if there's a lot going on and it's just cluttering the thread. But when it's dead, speculation is what these threads are typically about. Edit: Apparently Hoosier too. That's a new one. I'm sure if you add some analysis to the map, it should pass muster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 ORD had a low of 49 this morning, which is the first sub-50 temp since June 2nd (49). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 After most, if not ALL areas in SE MI away from waterfronts had already done-so during previous days/weeks, yesterday DTW finally had its first official sub-50F low (49F) since early June. It looks like several very chilly nights this week. Color change has already started and this should only help things more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 The only thing I have to say to all of the cold misers is be careful what you wish for. Don't get too excited about wasting all of this cold air now then when the heart of winter gets here it's 1997 all over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 Problem is I thought 97-98 was a stronger El Nino so they cant be compared to this years which would be weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 The only thing I have to say to all of the cold misers is be careful what you wish for. Don't get too excited about wasting all of this cold air now then when the heart of winter gets here it's 1997 all over again. I agree thats the last thing any cold miser would want. But that was an epic strong Nino. If you want to pull analogs, this year has a better chance of being more like the weak Ninos of 1976-77 or 1977-78 when a hot summer weather gave way to a cold Fall and even colder winter. I think a lot of people are so used to the warm pattern weve been in since Spring 2011 that they forget we can go into long periods of cold too, ie, its not like you only have one or two chances for a trough lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 I agree thats the last thing any cold miser would want. But that was an epic strong Nino. If you want to pull analogs, this year has a better chance of being more like the weak Ninos of 1976-77 or 1977-78 when a hot summer weather gave way to a cold Fall and even colder winter. I think a lot of people are so used to the warm pattern weve been in since Spring 2011 that they forget we can go into long periods of cold too, ie, its not like you only have one or two chances for a trough lol. I agree in theory, but typically weather patterns cycle in and out, and are not persistent like the warm pattern we recently had. This type of pattern we have now would have been much better in, say, December, than now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 My point called for 80 this morning, but it looks like it will top out around 75 or 76 unless it continues to warm into the late afternoon. It is possible, if we don't get a persistent Indian Summer in October, that we may have seen the last of the 80s in Milwaukee. I'm sure lake temps are near normal by now as well, which is a good thing on this side of the lake where we rarely get LES events anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 New grids from dtx show 38 as my low on Tuesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 From IWX afternoon disco: HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOWS ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH AWAY FROM LAKE PLUME LOOK TO DROP INTO UPPER 30S WITH SOME MID 30S POSSIBLE. GROUND TEMPS STILL RATHER WARM AND WITH THIS BEING FIRST REAL POSSIBILITY FOR LOWS IN THE 30S BELIEVE FROST POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW BUT NOT OUT OF QUESTION IN RURAL AREAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 looks like monday/tues night will be the best chance to rad at night. rest of the week here looks forecasted to be around normal to above avg at night Just noticed our averages our 71/55 so actually looks to still be slightly below avg at worst the rest of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 My point called for 80 this morning, but it looks like it will top out around 75 or 76 unless it continues to warm into the late afternoon. It is possible, if we don't get a persistent Indian Summer in October, that we may have seen the last of the 80s in Milwaukee. I'm sure lake temps are near normal by now as well, which is a good thing on this side of the lake where we rarely get LES events anyway. I think my point was 78°, ended up at 75°. That sun just isn't that strong anymore! I think an 80 or two will be it for down here. (Wouldn't be surprised if that was it though) I would benefit us if lake temperatures were not too warm, because that ends up cutting into totals near the lake early on with an onshore flow. Little above normal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 I think my point was 78°, ended up at 75°. That sun just isn't that strong anymore! I think an 80 or two will be it for down here. (Wouldn't be surprised if that was it though) I would benefit us if lake temperatures were not too warm, because that ends up cutting into totals near the lake early on with an onshore flow. Little above normal... Nice chart! Yeah, I'm with you. Obviously Western Michigan will benefit from warm lake waters in LE situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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