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September 2012 General Discussion


Brewers

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Light rain events excite me too at this point. Some actual active weather would change that mindset.

The latter half of September is pretty boring climatologically in this part of the country. Instability is down, but it's too warm still for anything fun to happen like the first snowflakes of the year.

E.g., Last SVR for DTX each year:

2012: 9/5 (none in August)

2011: 9/4

2010: 9/22 (last time there was more of a synoptic severe in late September)

2009: 8/20

2008: 8/9, if you exclude a tiny isolated cell on 10/26

2007: 10/19 (last synoptic severe in October, very little in September)

2006: 10/4

2005: 9/22

2004: 8/27

2003: 11/2 (last November SVR)

Even most of the above SVRs at or beyond this date are one-off cells, not outbreaks. About all to do is begin to watch the trees, visit farmers markets, and wait for the first big cold fronts with some real CAA to blast through (hence where we are now).

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The latter half of September is pretty boring climatologically in this part of the country. Instability is down, but it's too warm still for anything fun to happen like the first snowflakes of the year.

E.g., Last SVR for DTX each year:

2012: 9/5 (none in August)

2011: 9/4

2010: 9/22 (last time there was more of a synoptic severe in late September)

2009: 8/20

2008: 8/9, if you exclude a tiny isolated cell on 10/26

2007: 10/19 (last synoptic severe in October, very little in September)

2006: 10/4

2005: 9/22

2004: 8/27

2003: 11/2 (last November SVR)

Even most of the above SVRs at or beyond this date are one-off cells, not outbreaks. About all to do is begin to watch the trees, visit farmers markets, and wait for the first big cold fronts with some real CAA to blast through (hence where we are now).

And get out and enjoy the pleasant weather when it comes, which is what I'll do tonight.

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Lol

Once again we are graced with our daily fantasy map of 240hrs. This is getting insane. TRapper it's no doubt you have mad weather passion, which is cool! but please chillax on those D7+ 200hr plots. It's like an untold rule.

First of all, when every day 7 plot for the last week shows impressive cold shots and never wavers, I don't think it's too much of a stretch to say that if you were a betting man you could put some money on it happening.

Second, it's September, going into autumn, my favorite time of year. I used to be a storm chaser, loved summer and storms, and then 2011 came. I can't ever look at a storm the same way again or truly enjoy the beauty of a storm after seeing all the human carnage and destruction last year. It's a personal thing that I have decided I just can't deal with anymore. If I were still excited about severe, you'd see me posting more on here in the summer. Now I am not bashing the severe weather weenies at all... to each their own. All I am saying is that, for me, after last year, I just can't do it anymore without thinking about the possible carnage each event is going to cause and the fact that I used to be out there rooting the storms on. So many lives were lost last year and so many lives ruined and I just can't deal with it any more even if another superoutbreak doesn't happen for 50 years. it will always be imprinted on my mind beause I got to see most of those tornadoes almost live and in color, and knowing that each one was killing dozens and seeing the aftermath was just too much.

So yes, in the fall, I get excited when I see the first cold shots on the models, even if they are 240+ hours out, knowing that for most of the US severe season is winding down, That is why last winter and spring was such a downer. When the 80s came in March I thought for sure we were all goners. So try to forgive my enthusiasm and understand where I am coming from.

You severe weather weenies, continue to enjoy your passion, I am not faulting you for it, It just has died in me. So I hope this explains a little why I like the first cold shots of Fall.

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The latter half of September is pretty boring climatologically in this part of the country. Instability is down, but it's too warm still for anything fun to happen like the first snowflakes of the year.

E.g., Last SVR for DTX each year:

2012: 9/5 (none in August)

2011: 9/4

2010: 9/22 (last time there was more of a synoptic severe in late September)

2009: 8/20

2008: 8/9, if you exclude a tiny isolated cell on 10/26

2007: 10/19 (last synoptic severe in October, very little in September)

2006: 10/4

2005: 9/22

2004: 8/27

2003: 11/2 (last November SVR)

Even most of the above SVRs at or beyond this date are one-off cells, not outbreaks. About all to do is begin to watch the trees, visit farmers markets, and wait for the first big cold fronts with some real CAA to blast through (hence where we are now).

Still hard to believe the octobomb only produced two severe reports in SEMI

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Cold this, cold that -- blah blah blah. I don't understand how you can like uncomfortable -- which is what cold is. Here's what I want you to do -- keep your house thermostat at 25 degrees all winter. I bet you keep it between 65 - 75 like most people in this world. Therefore, 65+ temps are king and no one really likes 25 degrees!

Here's what we all wish you would do....move.. or STFU..

Folks from MM/WI/MI with their near 700,000 registered snowmobiles would violently disagree with your pansy ass.

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Still hard to believe the octobomb only produced two severe reports in SEMI

We got a high wind warning out of the octobomb and not much else. The frontal dynamics were too far to the south to matter here (all we had was an occluded front slide through - I don't even remember it raining much?) and the low itself was way to the north. ETA: DTW only got 0.18" - so no, it didn't rain much.

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Really nice day today - high 74°. Upper 40s again tonight forecast.

I say go ahead and show a few long range maps - especially since there is consistent model agreement. The model agreement has been shocking to say the least. Who knows maybe the long range maps will be right! Haha, who's ever seen a snowfall map for this region in September! - I haven't.

Every rain event makes a dent in the drought - that's something to be excited about!

Low sun over a prairie in Kenosha County tonight.

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~168 hours (7 full days) is out far enough in my opinion. If I would want to share something beyond that, I'd just provide a link to it or describe it in words. - I know some of the maps take up a decent amount of storage space.

Temperature leveling off here around 71-72°. Not one cloud in the sky!

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