mjwise Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 The CPC doubles down. Can't remember the last time they drew a 70% below normal probability group in the midwest, at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Nice map... did you make this? Those are Brett Anderson maps from his blog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Those are Brett Anderson maps from his blog. Hmm.. name sounds familier, is he a major warmer? I'm sitting at +2.8 today and this is coming: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs850mbTAnomalyNAGFSLoop.html I'm thinking most of the midwest/lakes finished around -3 to -5. That's my call for today. As someone else stated, not much else to really talk about beyond departures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Hmm.. name sounds familier, is he a major warmer? I'm sitting at +2.8 today and this is coming: http://raleighwx.ame...yNAGFSLoop.html I'm thinking most of the midwest/lakes finished around -3 to -5. That's my call for today. As someone else stated, not much else to really talk about beyond departures. I honestly don't really know. I just look at his Euro seasonal outlook maps and that is about it. I really don't read his blog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 The CPC doubles down. Can't remember the last time they drew a 70% below normal probability group in the midwest, at all. Tropical will be having nightmares about that map, with the top edge of the 'B' centered right over his garden fortress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 It's 55 right now in New Richmond and Woodruff, Wisconsin, along with a couple other places. Impressive for the middle of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Tropical will be having nightmares about that map, with the top edge of the 'B' centered right over his garden fortress. Lol! Temps under performing here today. About 83 outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Imagine if this system, primarily a cold frontal passage now, were a winter storm. I hope this isn't a sign to come, a big snowstorm with copious amounts of moisture progged turning into a couple inches of fluff or slush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Imagine if this system, primarily a cold frontal passage now, were a winter storm. I hope this isn't a sign to come, a big snowstorm with copious amounts of moisture progged turning into a couple inches of fluff or slush. anafronts are not and have never been snow makers...not sure i get the comparison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Lol! Temps under performing here today. About 83 outside. its not the upper 80's they said yesterday..but nailed this mornings temps of 85 on top Mt. Waukegan. Nice thing is the warmups to the max temp are slower than a month ago and the temps drop off faster with the much earlier sunset.. I love all of the shade we have now after about 5:30 INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WAUKEGAN 308 AM CDT WED SEP 12 2012 TODAY SOME PASSING HIGH THIN CLOUDINESS BUT GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY. VERY WARM. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 anafronts are not and have never been snow makers...not sure i get the comparison The bigger point is this wasn't originally progged to be an anafront. Low pressure was supposed to strengthen in the Wisconsin/Illinois region earlier this week. This turned into a weak little anafront because the computer models are so unreliable and have been this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Very cool here all day...68F right now with north wind which is cooled nicely from the rain to the north of here. Looking forward to that 42F in the forecast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Imagine if this system, primarily a cold frontal passage now, were a winter storm. I hope this isn't a sign to come, a big snowstorm with copious amounts of moisture progged turning into a couple inches of fluff or slush. Only thing MKE does well with is winter cutters to SE MI.. Prepare for another boring winter and low 30's" of pixie dust snowfall, hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Blowtorch L Michigan...100 inches...bank it THE 12.12Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF ARE SHOWING 850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND ZERO DEGREES CELSIUS BY 12Z TUESDAY ACROSS FORECAST AREA AND THE 12.00Z GEFS INDICATING STANDARD ANOMALIES OF MINUS 0.5 TO MINUS 1 BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO 60S. Be a good widespread frost possible next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Only thing MKE does well with is winter cutters to SE MI.. Prepare for another boring winter and low 30's" of snowfall, hopefully. Sure, but there is a reason SE Michigan seems to get all the dryslots. At least we get a fair number of those, knock on wood. This year, I do agree the Eastern Lakes will cash in on most of the snows once again. Whether that means a torch, frigid winter or in between is yet to be seen, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 its not the upper 80's they said yesterday..but nailed this mornings temps of 85 on top Mt. Waukegan. Nice thing is the warmups to the max temp are slower than a month ago and the temps drop off faster with the much earlier sunset.. I love all of the shade we have now after about 5:30 INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WAUKEGAN 308 AM CDT WED SEP 12 2012 TODAY SOME PASSING HIGH THIN CLOUDINESS BUT GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY. VERY WARM. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. Huh? I hit 87.9 at the house today. Upper 80s it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 its not the upper 80's they said yesterday..but nailed this mornings temps of 85 on top Mt. Waukegan. Nice thing is the warmups to the max temp are slower than a month ago and the temps drop off faster with the much earlier sunset.. I love all of the shade we have now after about 5:30 INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WAUKEGAN 308 AM CDT WED SEP 12 2012 TODAY SOME PASSING HIGH THIN CLOUDINESS BUT GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY. VERY WARM. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. Now I remember the high was cut this morning. Some high clouds have gotten in the way today. Doesn't feel hot with our sun angle now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 What else they supposed to do? Use the Euro ECMWF which is a bit further NW and a bit weaker or the crazy phase happy GGEM? This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 I just saved a screen shot of today's 12z ECMWF D7. When next Wednesdays 850s come in some +5 or higher we can chat about the obvious cold bias these models seem to have this time of year. If it comes in spot on or cooler, then we can praise the model and you winter lovers can have hope about future siberian troughs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 What a gorgeous cyclone on the 18Z GFS! This is what you get out of a slightly sharper trough and slightly greater baroclinicity. 12Z CMC had a similar solution (albeit at least 24 hr slower than the GFS), but little to no love from the ECMWF or its ensembles. ECMWF has a much weaker low tracking from the northern Great Lakes into Ontario about a day earlier, but with such a broad trough forcing for ascent (e.g. QG omega) is poorly focused and you get a non-event. IF the Euro caves then the most dynamically-favored region for perhaps seeing a few wet flakes would be the UP of MI, although such a scenario would be pulling in NE'rly wind off a still warm Lake Superior so there would almost certainly be boundary layer issues. Maybe the next one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 It's like Octobomb but a month early...love our crazy weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 yeah if only it was a month later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 man the 18z GFS storm next week would be a fun one to watch. Gets into bombogenesis mode for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Sep-tem-bo-bomb. That's insanity. Bringing back memories of the ultimate high risk day. What a hoot that was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Septembomb sounds better. Octobomb was just crazy especially in terms of the pressure. But imagine if something like that would've happened a little later in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 If Octobomb would have happened in December that would have been an incredible blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted September 12, 2012 Author Share Posted September 12, 2012 Nice... The 18z better not be a tease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 We are alllllll weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Palm crusher for sure...banana shredding will occur.. Hopefully those that grow palms and bananas along the east coast of Wisconsin have suitable protective measures ready to put in place ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 We are alllllll weenies. We are alllllll bored from 2 seasons of lackluster weather. That being said one model run doesn't get me tingly, if this continues to show up on subsequent runs then I might be interested. Nonetheless, there will at least be a seasonally strong trough to come through the region in the 144-180hr range. Whether or not it phases with any Southern stream energy and closes off remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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