Geos Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Some cool cirrus clouds overhead at sunset tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Late September has got to be the most useless time of the year for a negative temp departure! I was hoping we could ride the positive lake anomalies into the start of LES season, a cool fall could bring lake temps to normal levels. What a waste of cold air! According to a APX study, there is no correlation between fall lake temps and seasonal snowfall.... Most positive lake temps get wiped out in hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Summer is over, so lets get the cold air out of the way now and in October so Nov-Mar can be hellish hot. I'm not worried about a freeze here anyway being a few miles from the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Summer is over, so lets get the cold air out of the way now and in October so Nov-Mar can be hellish hot. I'm not worried about a freeze here anyway being a few miles from the lake. You should be worried about being 5 posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Forecast was spot on today, high 83°. Thursday, Friday highs have been taken down here too. 68°, 65° respectively. Edit: Whoah! The CMC is sure onto this cool down! So they are predicting that the entire Atlantic will be above normal with surface air temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 So they are predicting that the entire Atlantic will be above normal with surface air temps? I guess that's what it's suggesting... or the chance is good that it will be above normal! lol Wonder how above normal the air above the water can really be. Probably nothing too crazy for departures. Edit: Anyway - Skilling going with below normal temperatures in each of the 3 time periods; 1-5, 6-10, & 11-15 day. Getting progressively more negative as the month wears on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 ARB's little bowl got down to 40 this morning and 38 yesterday morning. Gotta love microclimates. Also, it's been a very, very long time since I've seen CPC's historical analogs to the current 8-14 day forecast show this kind of negative temperature departure. (ETA: Summer of 2009 was the last time that I can recall, to be specific, outside of winter). LOL to the 38F. That microclimate is very interesting....meanwhile DTWs UHI is very aggravating (because DTW is THE climate station, ARB is jusy one of the local asos's). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 El Nino MO, unfortunately. Yes...but we have just been in a predominately warm pattern for 16 months.....its about time a trough dominates. We are due for months of troughiness, and Im thinking this is right around the time the pattern started to get troughy in the brutally cold weak Nino winter of 1976-77. Doesnt mean that will happen of course, but this long warm pattern has made people forget that cold patterns DO settle in. Its not as if this is our only chance for a trough then we go back into warmer than normal weather. It was also nice how after a hot summer in 2010 we turned onto cold JUST in time for a long, cold winter. So while I certainly wouldnt want a September trough to come at the expense of one in winter, I would LOVE LOVE LOVE for this to be the start of a months-long pattern! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 You should be worried about being 5 posted. nothing like a hellish hot Nov-Mar. It will be in the 90s every day. LOL those palms with be frozen solid in a long, cold, weak el nino winter this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 This is the 18Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 This is the 18Z. It is also a 300hr map which shouldn't be posted... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Can't wait.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 It is also a 300hr map which shouldn't be posted... It is September, the most boring month in the Midwest. There's nothing happening concerning sensible weather. It doesn't hurt to look ahead. In fact, after seeing the GFS dmc posted, that just solidifies the idea that the trough east/ridge west pattern will hold on for the foreseeable future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Just goes to show you you can't trust the CPC one bit until the last run of the month. It was showing mega torch for the whole country right up until the last run in August, and then it went normal to below from the eastern plains to the southeast. Sorry, I meant CFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 NWS shows some mid 40Fs here once this front goes through.. Not too impressed by the rainfall potential. GFS shows maybe a quarter inch...probably doubtful we even get that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 rain event for thursday night looking like a non event. and re: 300 hr maps...I don't mind the occasional wild map for S&Gs as long as it remains in the monthly chatter thread. We haven't really had issues with people starting threads over fantasy storms so I'm not worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Thursday's rain event is really drying up on the models. The Euro has consistently been showing at most a quarter inch around here while the GFS and NAM, and the HPC, had been showing 1+ inches. Now the GFS and NAM have really backed off with the 12z NAM showing barely over a tenth here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Funny... my forecast has increased the rain chances to 90%. Maybe it will end up being a surprise rain like Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Funny... my forecast has increased the rain chances to 90%. Maybe it will end up being a surprise rain like Saturday night. I don't see why they wouldn't raise pops, it's going to rain but amounts have certainly trended down...just an average anafront on tap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Enjoy the cool weather trapperman. It will be gone soon and the predominate warmth will return. Euro weeklies confirm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Honestly tropical you always have to break everyone's heart on this sub forum lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 I don't understand how you are allowed to post any more. Those weeklies work out sooooo well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 who cares if its "warm" in sept in and october..get out and enjoy...its not like its going to be hot....the sun angle is about as strong as tropicals Met degree and trolling skills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 who cares if its "warm" in sept in and october..get out and enjoy...its not like its going to be hot....the sun angle is about as strong as tropicals Met degree and trolling skills. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Enjoy the cool weather trapperman. It will be gone soon and the predominate warmth will return. Euro weeklies. Trollpical, I guess you should try real hard not to look at the extended 06z, and 12z GFS runs, because that high is parked over the pac nw and is not going anywhere by the end of September... better get your palms indoors real soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Trollpical, I guess you should try real hard not to look at the extended 06z, and 12z GFS runs, because that high is parked over the pac nw and is not going anywhere by the end of September... better get your palms indoors real soon. Yup cause 300 hour model runs are that accurate. Worked great for that "cutoff" we were supposed to have last weekend, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Yes and 400 hour Euro weeklies are just as good, right??? Nuff said. Done with this conversation before we both get spanked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Enjoy the cool weather trapperman. It will be gone soon and the predominate warmth will return. Euro weeklies confirm. Nice map... did you make this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Major temp bust today. I'm sitting at 81 degrees while it was supposed to hit 88. Instead of the +10 to 15 I was expecting, we might see a +5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Major temp bust today. I'm sitting at 81 degrees while it was supposed to hit 88. Instead of the +10 to 15 I was expecting, we might see a +5. looks like we might be running a little cool as well...not sure how much gain we'll see from here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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