trapperman Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 Ya know guys... if the long range Euro and GFS were to pan out... they sure are latching onto a pretty long-lived central US trough. Man I'd give a left nut for this to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 A bit warmer here this morning too. Low 55°. Lake Michigan cooling off steadily. Few 70°s readings left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 I don't want to blow all the quality troughs in September Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 DTW official low the last 2 days 51F and 52F. Even mby got to 49F yesterday (52F today)...so still waiting the first official 40s in 3 months, although most of the area has had several 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 Yeah yeah, me again. Ops agree, ensembles agree, CPC agrees. And by the way, that precip map I posted? Some of that would certainly be snow/sleet, at least in the evening/overnight hours, from northern MN to the UP and maybe into Wisco. Anyone on board yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 DTW official low the last 2 days 51F and 52F. Even mby got to 49F yesterday (52F today)...so still waiting the first official 40s in 3 months, although most of the area has had several 40s. MBY hit 42. Howell airport I think registered 44. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 Yeah yeah, me again. Ops agree, ensembles agree, CPC agrees. And by the way, that precip map I posted? Some of that would certainly be snow/sleet, at least in the evening/overnight hours, from northern MN to the UP and maybe into Wisco. Anyone on board yet? That would be weather porn in DJF, heck its nice to see right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 That would be weather porn in DJF, heck its nice to see right now. lake effect in western Michigan in 10-14 days??? Just kidding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjwise Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 MBY hit 42. Howell airport I think registered 44. ARB's little bowl got down to 40 this morning and 38 yesterday morning. Gotta love microclimates. Also, it's been a very, very long time since I've seen CPC's historical analogs to the current 8-14 day forecast show this kind of negative temperature departure. (ETA: Summer of 2009 was the last time that I can recall, to be specific, outside of winter). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 Just goes to show you you can't trust the CPC one bit until the last run of the month. It was showing mega torch for the whole country right up until the last run in August, and then it went normal to below from the eastern plains to the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 Me likey... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 That's quite the troughing pattern on the GFS/Euro and their respective ensembles, haven't seen a sustained cool/cold shot like that into this region in awhile. Also am interested to see whether the warm sectors of any of these systems become favorable for severe wx. My hunch, that if it verifies to some degree, is that at least one of them will eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 Andy looks like Weds could be an OK setup, not a lot of moisture, but from then on towards the east, yeah, looks mighty interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 Andy looks like Weds could be an OK setup, not a lot of moisture, but from then on towards the east, yeah, looks mighty interesting... You mean next Wed I take it? If that trough turns out to be less sharp than it is progged to be (which several GFS members indicate, otherwise the primary threat would probably be more linear in nature), and if the moisture return sets up a bit earlier, then I could certainly see something towards the middle of next week. Specifics are not really worth going over this far out, but the Fall-type kinematics seem to be falling in place in some form or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 Yeah I meant next weds. Gfs a little different still than the Euro. CPC must be going Euro all the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 Late September has got to be the most useless time of the year for a negative temp departure! I was hoping we could ride the positive lake anomalies into the start of LES season, a cool fall could bring lake temps to normal levels. What a waste of cold air! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 Late September has got to be the most useless time of the year for a negative temp departure! I was hoping we could ride the positive lake anomalies into the start of LES season, a cool fall could bring lake temps to normal levels. What a waste of cold air! You don't want the lakes super warm otherwise it will be rain near the lake the first few events or a snow that will not stick. I've missed out in some good early season snowfalls because Lake Michigan was running at 50 or better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 You don't want the lakes super warm otherwise it will be rain near the lake the first few events or a snow that will not stick. I've missed out in some good early season snowfalls because Lake Michigan was running at 50 or better. I guess you are lucky. I have had events in the middle of January with rain lakeside and snow 2 miles away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 A 100+ acre bursh fire has been ongoing near Ottawa/Utica, IL for 2+ hours now. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 318 PM CDT TUE SEP 11 2012 ILZ011-012-019-112230- DE KALB-KANE-LA SALLE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DEKALB...AURORA...OTTAWA 316 PM CDT TUE SEP 11 2012 A 100 ACRE BRUSH FIRE BETWEEN UTICA AND OTTAWA HAS RESULTED IN THE CLOSURE OF DEE BENNETT ROAD IN BOTH DIRECTIONS.THE SMOKE PLUME IS CROSSING INTERSTATE 80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 83 AND 86 AND THE EDGE OF PLUME IS ALSO CROSSING INTERSTATE 88 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 95 AND 101. THE SMOKE PLUME MAY CAUSE INTERMITTENT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN THE AREA AND THOSE WITH SENSITIVE RESPIRATORY CONDITIONS MAY BE AFFECTED AS WELL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 I guess you are lucky. I have had events in the middle of January with rain lakeside and snow 2 miles away. Come to think of it, it can happen later too. Usually the result of a marginal boundary layer. Sometimes it's hard to tell if the warming is coming off the lake when the low track is close by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 Come to think of it, it can happen later too. Usually the result of a marginal boundary layer. Sometimes it's hard to tell if the warming is coming off the lake when the low track is close by. yeah, i usually attribute it to the lake if it snowing really close by. If the snow is a fairly large distance from the lake though then it's most likely other factors at play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 couldn't help myself lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 Next two days after tomorrow! Thursday: Showers likely, mainly after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 64. North wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Friday: A 40 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 66. North wind around 10 mph. :wub: Hello Fall! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 MBY hit 42. Howell airport I think registered 44. KOZ(Howel) only got down to 49. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 Forecast was spot on today, high 83°. Thursday, Friday highs have been taken down here too. 68°, 65° respectively. Edit: Whoah! The CMC is sure onto this cool down! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 Forecast was spot on today, high 83°. Thursday, Friday highs have been taken down here too. 68°, 65° respectively. Yeah, that cutoff is going scoot through more quickly than originally anticipated. Rain and cooler temps here Friday, with the rain gone by Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 I don't want to blow all the quality troughs in September Only if they yield severe weather, otherwise pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 I don't want to blow all the quality troughs in September El Nino MO, unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 KOZ(Howel) only got down to 49. I hit 42 Monday morning... Last night wasn't even notable.... 49 sounds right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 79 °F as of 7 pm, 36 hours until the frontal passage. Highs in the 50s on Thursday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.