A-L-E-K Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 Izzi trashing the nogaps GIVEN THE WIDELY VARYING SOLUTIONS...WE WOULD HAVE ABOUT AS MUCH OF A CHANCE NAILING THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST USING A METEOROLOGICAL OUIJA BOARD AS WE WOULD TRYING TO PICK THE BEST MODEL GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT. BY 12Z SATURDAY GEM HAS THE CLOSED LOW OVER NEW MEXICO...THE GFS OVER ONTARIO...AND ECMWF AND NOGAPS OVER ILLINOIS. IF THE FACT THE NOGAPS IS BEING INCORPORATED INTO THE FORECAST PROCESS ISNT A SURE SIGN THAT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IM NOT SURE WHAT IS! THE NOGAPS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS WOULD RESULT IN A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHILE THE GEM/GFS WOULD BE DRY (BUT FOR STARKLY DIFFERING REASONS). GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST MADE NO CHANGES TO THE BLENDED INITIALIZATION FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 Again, FWIW (seems I always say that) we have both models now coming more into agreement. I'll take this pattern from mid September on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 Got down to 46 °F in Madison, cool temps really helped extend the morning run on the elliptical. Usually it's 80 °F in my apartment in the morning but today it's hanging around 70 °F... this building generates lots of heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 Izzi trashing the nogaps GIVEN THE WIDELY VARYING SOLUTIONS...WE WOULD HAVE ABOUT AS MUCH OF A CHANCE NAILING THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST USING A METEOROLOGICAL OUIJA BOARD AS WE WOULD TRYING TO PICK THE BEST MODEL GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT. BY 12Z SATURDAY GEM HAS THE CLOSED LOW OVER NEW MEXICO...THE GFS OVER ONTARIO...AND ECMWF AND NOGAPS OVER ILLINOIS. IF THE FACT THE NOGAPS IS BEING INCORPORATED INTO THE FORECAST PROCESS ISNT A SURE SIGN THAT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IM NOT SURE WHAT IS! THE NOGAPS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS WOULD RESULT IN A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHILE THE GEM/GFS WOULD BE DRY (BUT FOR STARKLY DIFFERING REASONS). GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST MADE NO CHANGES TO THE BLENDED INITIALIZATION FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD. Lol the NOGAPS, hardly worth the computations/time to run it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 Got down to 47, coolest morning since June 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 Hit 42 at my house in Howell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 Made it down to 48 here this morning. First sub 50 temp since 6/7(48). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 49F here... Sparta, WI was in the upper 30Fs most the nite (36F low) Getting time of year i need to think about ripping out the tomatoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 So much for that agreement. Ensembles are fighting amongst themselves. I quit, lol. All I know is the upper midwest stands a real good chance of frost all the way down into Iowa early next week. GFS and Euro in pretty good agreement. Probably another warmup after that but not as hot. Fall is coming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 I quit, lol. All I know is the upper midwest stands a real good chance of frost all the way down into Iowa early next week. GFS and Euro in pretty good agreement. Probably another warmup after that but not as hot. Fall is coming... Bet I don't get frost for at least another 45 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 average first frost isn't until mid October around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 This is all I'm gonna say on the subject. No more. I'm taking a hiatus because if this does not pan out I'm going to cut my wrists... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 Bring on the frosts please. Allergies are really bad today for me. Probably another 3-4 weeks away yet. ...45 days away for a Ozaukee County I don't think that long. Edit: Usually frosts by October 12th here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 It will have to get really cold in many places to have frost here. Lake Michigan acts like a nice warm blanket this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 Yeah lake Michigan makes it almost impossible to get a killing frost near the lake in September and the urban heat island adds to that difficulty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 I quit, lol. All I know is the upper midwest stands a real good chance of frost all the way down into Iowa early next week. GFS and Euro in pretty good agreement. Probably another warmup after that but not as hot. Fall is coming... There is no such thing called good agreement 190+ hours out. It's shows a trough. Placement, timing and intensity/thickness is yet to be determined. What you see now isn't verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 There is no such thing called good agreement 190+ hours out. I don't know why I respond to this but both those maps are about as close as "good agreement" can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 I don't know why I respond to this but both those maps are about as close as "good agreement" can get. Read my additional comments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 All right no fighting. It will most likely get chillier in the upper midwest early next week. How's that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 Gotta wonder if DTW can hit 90 on Wednesday. Keeping the sunshine and mixing going might be the key obviously. DTX mentioning upper 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 Yeah lake Michigan makes it almost impossible to get a killing frost near the lake in September and the urban heat island adds to that difficulty. Last September I had patchy frost on two mornings with lows in the mid 30s! That was about as early as I remember a frost. I'm thinking the eastern shoreline of Lake Michigan has some really late frosts some autumns. High 72° this afternoon, with very few clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 Environment Canada Toronto confirmed Ontario's first F2 tornado of the season which occurred on September 8th near Storms Corners in Lennox and Addington County. Unfortunately no tornado warning was issued, but a man inside a destroyed shed escaped unharmed. Quite significant damage occurred. THE TORNADO OCCURRED IN THE WITHERS ROAD AREA TO THE SOUTHWEST OFSTORMS CORNERS. THE DAMAGE INCLUDED AN 8 METRE TRAILER WEIGHING APPROXIMATELY 2500 KILOGRAMS. THE TRAILER WAS CARRIED AND ROLLED OVER 30 METRES BY THE TORNADO AND TOTALLY DESTROYED. A NEW AND WELL-ANCHORED STORAGE SHED WAS DESTROYED TO ITS FOUNDATIONS. THE ROOF FROM THIS SHED WAS CARRIED APPROXIMATELY 150 METRES AND FELL TO THE GROUND ALMOST INTACT. IN AN EXAMPLE OF QUICK THINKING AND APPROPRIATE ACTION, A MAN IN THE SHED AT THE TIME THE TORNADO STRUCK IMMEDIATELY TOOK SHELTER UNDER A HEAVY WORKBENCH AND AVOIDED SERIOUS INJURY AS A RESULT. DEBRIS FROM A BARN ORIGINALLY AT THE WESTERN END OF THE DAMAGE TRACK WAS CARRIED OVER 4 KILOMETRES. NUMEROUS TREES IN THE AREA WERE UPROOTED OR SEVERELY DAMAGED AND A NUMBER OF LARGE BRANCHES WERE DRIVEN INTO THE GROUND BY THE FORCE OF THE TORNADO. DEBRIS FROM DAMAGED OR DESTROYED BUILDINGS LITTERED SURROUNDING FIELDS. FARM MACHINERY WEIGHING AS MUCH AS 1000 KILOGRAMS WAS CARRIED AS FAR AS 100 METRES. IN TOTAL, THE DAMAGE PATH WAS AROUND 6 KILOMETRES LONG AND ABOUT 150 METRES WIDE, AT ITS WIDEST POINT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs850mbTAnomalyNAGFSLoop.html No way this month finishes with a positive departure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs850mbTAnomalyNAGFSLoop.html No way this month finishes with a positive departure. You know DTW is currently sitting at a + 4.3 Gotta a stretch of 3- 5 days of positive departures on our hands. Possibly hitting 90 on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 http://raleighwx.ame...yNAGFSLoop.html No way this month finishes with a positive departure. Yeah I doubt it will either. With the forecasted blocking, I think it will mean the entire subforum area will be between -1° and -2° departure. ... Falling below 60° at this hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 You know DTW is currently sitting at a + 4.3 Gotta a stretch of 3- 5 days of positive departures on our hands. Possibly hitting 90 on Wednesday. It went from +7.5 to +4.3 in 2 days. You have 3 or 4 mid 80's until the bottom falls out... I hope to never see 80 until June after that. Lansing is +3.7 and probably +2.7 after today. By next satuday Lansing will be negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 It went from +7.5 to +4.3 in 2 days. You have 3 or 4 mid 80's until the bottom falls out... I hope to never see 80 until June after that. Lansing is +3.7 and probably +2.7 after today. By next satuday Lansing will be negative. Neither of these things will happen, It will be 80 again after this cool down, and it will be 80 before June next year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 Environment Canada Toronto confirmed Ontario's first F2 tornado of the season which occurred on September 8th near Storms Corners in Lennox and Addington County. Unfortunately no tornado warning was issued, but a man inside a destroyed shed escaped unharmed. Quite significant damage occurred. Apt name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 All right no fighting. It will most likely get chillier in the upper midwest early next week. How's that? I vigorously agree with you. For 180+ hours out, you don't get much better agreement with the models than this. GFS/EURO/GGEM all show an impressive, autumnal longwave trough being carved out in the center of North America. GFS is maybe slightly less impressive (shallower with the trough) but it's not like it has a heat ridge over the plains. If I was a betting man (and I am) I'd say just based on climatology, the GFS is probably going to be closer to the truth. The H5 plots off the 0z EURO/GGEM look more like a trough you'd see getting closer to Halloween. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 Much warmer this morning, 61 °F with a light south wind as of 5 am. MSN is the warmest spot oddly enough, the rest of Dane county is in the 50s. Next couple of days will have highs in the mid 80s, and then a bout of cold/rainy fall weather with a frontal zone stalling overhead right after the cold air mass comes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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