Sunny and Warm Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 That's obviously a flawed statement because we've been dealing with dry air entrainment all day. My post was vague in that regard which is why I deleted it. I was simply observing that dry air without a mechanism to reach the core is not in and of itself a detrimental feature. I was not commenting on Isaac and his issues yesterday/today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 FWIW NHC initialized 0Z models as a 60 knot TS, not a HU. AL, 09, 2012082800, , BEST, 0, 267N, 865W, 60, 981, TS, 34, NEQ, 150, 160, 100, 180, 1008, 230, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ISAAC, D, AL, 09, 2012082800, , BEST, 0, 267N, 865W, 60, 981, TS, 50, NEQ, 50, 60, 50, 40, 1008, 230, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ISAAC, D, This was out for the 8pm advisory and there is no reason to upgrade this to a hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Re: min pressure of a strengthening TS in the Gulf ... Since 1950 ... Alex 2010 fell to 981mb before cane status and Opal 1995 fell to 980mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Last Frame and looks like a very small eye! http://www.ssd.noaa....h-vis-long.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Assuming this is the formative eye, this is .4 due degrees north of the last advisory position. Would have to wobble to the west quite a bit to hit the next forecast point. Kind of fits with the eastward trend of the the 18z suite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Last Frame and looks like a very small eye! http://www.ssd.noaa....h-vis-long.html No....that is just the cirrus anvils from the new thunderstorms near the center....the eye's diameter is measure at a much lower level and is listed as about 20-25 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 There is no way anyone will be seeing a eye in satellite imagery right now. Heck, this thing has very little convection in the northern and eastern quadrants. I had to step back and take a little break, but this thing looks really disorganized right now. I'm honestly surprised how low the pressure was able to get with it in such poor condition. That said, it is ready to go if convection is finally able to fill in. Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC) Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 00:31Z Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF) Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2012 Storm Name: Isaac (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 28 Observation Number: 27 A. Time of Center Fix: 27th day of the month at 23:54:23Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26°47'N 86°27'W (26.7833N 86.45W) B. Center Fix Location: 257 miles (413 km) to the S (170°) from Pensacola, FL, USA. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,981m (9,780ft) at 700mb D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 53kts (~ 61.0mph) E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 90 nautical miles (104 statute miles) to the WSW (258°) of center fix F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 325° at 60kts (From the NW at ~ 69.0mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 110 nautical miles (127 statute miles) to the W (265°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 983mb (29.03 inHg) - Extrapolated I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,060m (10,039ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,032m (9,948ft) K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F) K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character: Poorly Defined M. Eye Shape: Not Available N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature N. Fix Level: 700mb O. Fix Determined By / Fix Level (Undecoded): 1 / 1 nm Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded... Maximum Flight Level Wind: 70kts (~ 80.6mph) in the southeast quadrant at 22:34:49Z Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 63kts (~ 72.5mph) in the east quadrant at 0:00:53Z Remarks Section - Additional Remarks... SLP EXTRAP FROM 10K FT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 There is no way anyone will be seeing a eye in satellite imagery right now. Heck, this thing has very little convection in the northern and eastern quadrants. I had to step back and take a little break, but this thing looks really disorganized right now. I'm honestly surprised how low the pressure was able to get with it in such poor condition. That said, it is ready to go if convection is finally able to fill in. It has shallow convection around the entire eye. The IR can't see it but the recent microwave passes have confirmed this. Yes, the eye itself is poorly defined, but the inner core as a whole has continued to steadily organize. Also, the track appears to be almost 100 km east of the NHC forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Looks like to me the center has relocated further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Yes, which is why its key to see if its still developing a robust eye at the same period. Heres a nice dprog/dt animation of the last few model cycles. If anything, it has trended stronger as the hour selected here (05z... 1am) is moving closer and closer to real time. The overall forecast motion seems to also be slowing given that its shifted to the south and east form the initial 14 hour forecast. Looking at the later frames of the 21UTC version, it's interesting as it starts to align it more North-South with outflow channels to the south and north. As opposed to it's current east-west squished look. I think it's clear that some major reorganization is going to occur b/n now and daybreak. I think that is partly due to the interaction w/ the incoming trough. I think we'll see a nice feathery cirrus look over the east coast and midwest tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 No....that is just the cirrus anvils from the new thunderstorms near the center....the eye's diameter is measure at a much lower level and is listed as about 20-25 miles. Good call. But there are definitely cold top storms erupting around the center at this time. Let's see if they persist and start to encircle the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Uploaded with ImageShack.us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 It has shallow convection around the entire eye. The IR can't see it but the recent microwave passes have confirmed this. Yes, the eye itself is poorly defined, but the inner core as a whole has continued to steadily organize. Also, the track appears to be almost 100 km east of the NHC forecast. Exactly. Just because right at this moment there aren't cold tops completely encircling the center doesn't mean it can't have a well developed circulation with increased organization of the overall system. But obviously if further significant intensification is going to occur that will need to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Anyone think this is finally the eye forming in a new circulation to the southwest of the old center ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Anyone think this is finally the eye forming in a new circulation to the south west of the old center ? No...looks like a hot tower to me. Just deep convection with cold cloud tops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 18z GFDL is considerably stronger near the Miss. delta: Yeah, FWIW, I think this is by far the strongest run of the GFDL while Isaac has been in the Gulf. Looks like it bottoms out around 963 mb with around 90 kt winds. It had been having trouble even getting it to cat 1 before this run as far I have seen. Also interesting to note how impressive and large Isaac's wind field is. Just noted that on the way home the USAF plane reported flight level winds at 850 mb of 65 kt with unflagged SFMR of nearly 50 kt just off the LA bird's foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FredRed Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Still some easterly shear but looks to be abating some in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radius Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_pregen_sat/PUBLIC/tc_pages/pages/tc12/ATL/09L.ISAAC/tmi/color37/full/20120827.2129.trmm.x.color37.09LISAAC.60kts-984mb-261N-859W.56pc.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Nice looking hot tower going up! Bodes well for intensification and organization this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 HRRR shows this well, this side will wrap up then the eye will form. Now 3AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_pregen_sat/PUBLIC/tc_pages/pages/tc12/ATL/09L.ISAAC/tmi/color37/full/20120827.2129.trmm.x.color37.09LISAAC.60kts-984mb-261N-859W.56pc.html Actually looks pretty decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
airmarci Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 I live just north of greenville,nc (90 miles from coast), had over 14inches of rain from Irene and lost 3 trees, one was oak tree over 80 years old. No power for over 36 hours. Call it what you want, but we still have people that have not recovered from that "tropical storm" a year later.... sorry, not trying to derail thread, just stating facts. http://www.accuweath...top-ten-1/54348 No one was making light of the fact that Irene did significant damage up and down the east coast. They were merely pointing out that while Irene did have a very low central pressure as a tropical storm at landfall, it had weakened from a Category 3 hurricane. Isaac is much different in that it has a unusually low pressure for a tropical storm that has not yet reached hurricane strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Storm still looks pretty awful on satellite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Isaac will never happen. Nobody is implying that, just looks awful IMO. Maybe it intensifies tonight a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Anyone think this is finally the eye forming in a new circulation to the southwest of the old center ? At this intensity/level of organization you don't really see center relocations. You DO see very pronounced wobbles, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeauDodson Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Direct TV is broadcasting local New Orleans television channels. Here in this area it is on channel 325 - info channels - appears to be several channels they are broadcasting local tv stations on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Tropical storm force winds beginning to overspread the lower delta. These winds are sustained in mph, extremely impressive wind field for a tropical storm at such a distance. These winds are occurring with the outermost spiral bands, which are relatively weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Storm still looks pretty awful on satellite. It might not look great, but its actually very comparable to what the HRRR is depicting in the near future. For example. Current Infrared: Lets compare that to the HRRR OLR valid for 7z: eerily similar right?... although this is suppose to be 5 hours in the future. If we go forward to the end of the most recent HRRR run you get something like this. So yes, not a great presentation right now, but it could be the beginning of substancial banding we need on satellite imagery to mix out of the rest of this possible dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Enough with the useless this is not coming together etc post. Looking at the models the convection is supposed to wrap up nicely later tonight and is on schedule. If it doesn't look good by AM then it is time to say it never came together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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