wxsmwhrms Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 The global models have actually done a pretty job handling the intensity trend the last couple of data with significant organization holding off til today. The GFS shows 925 mob winds increasing about 30 kt between now and LF tomorrow evening, reaching a peak near 100 kt. Will be interested to see how this plays out. To be honest it doesn't need to deepen all that much, the circulation just needs to tighten with a corresponding increase in winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Does anyone know if this is near the record lowest pressure for a tropical storm in the Gulf? We have seen interesting wind/pressure relationships in recent years from Alex to Ike and Earl to Irene. Probably Opal, 980mb TS...not counting some that were interacting with land (like Juan 1985, 978 mb), or after landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Pretty nice Vis shot posted on another board. This looks more promising IMO for intensification tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 I can't remember the last time I've seen sub 980 tropical storm. I think the lowest pressure I've seen in a tropical storm was like 985? 984? I wonder what the record is... Irene made landfall at NYC as a strong TS with a pressure of 962mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 I call it annoying not interesting. However this is not uncommon in the wpac so I assume it can happen im our basin. I think isador had a lower pressure Why does it matter? Not all tropical systems have to magically be 80 mph hurricanes with 980ish pressure. Given Isaac's size, at 70 it is a significant impact system despite a lower wind max. It not being 75 does not make it any less of a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Pretty nice Vis shot posted on another board. This looks more promising IMO for intensification tonight. In my novice opinion, it looks like outflow was surging east in this shot. I figure it could be related to the sunset and sun angle, but do any pros have anything to say about it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 In my novice opinion, it looks like outflow was surging east in this shot. I figure it could be related to the sunset and sun angle, but do any pros have anything to say about it? I feel like it's been working east for a while now....Isaac definitely took a nice shot of dry air before the east side could wrap up but I think it will be the last for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XtremeWx Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 8pm advisory still has it at 70 mph but its forward speed slowed down to 10 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Probably Opal, 980mb TS...not counting some that were interacting with land (like Juan 1985, 978 mb), or after landfall. Opal was another very large tropical cyclone. Of course it had much more time over water when it became a hurricane (54 hours) but it still managed to develop a very tight inner core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 In my novice opinion, it looks like outflow was surging east in this shot. I figure it could be related to the sunset and sun angle, but do any pros have anything to say about it? Ridge to the NE of storm weakening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 The latest HRRR run looks really good in terms of potential rapid intensification prospects. http://goo.gl/U4pSr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeauDodson Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Why does it matter? Not all tropical systems have to magically be 80 mph hurricanes with 980ish pressure. Given Isaac's size, at 70 it is a significant impact system despite a lower wind max. It not being 75 does not make it any less of a storm. IKE rating thus far - will be interesting to watch the surge/wave rating as we move into tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 The latest HRRR run looks really good in terms of potential rapid intensification prospects. http://goo.gl/U4pSr It does look pretty nasty at the end, but I have seen this be overzealous in developing these systems in the past. We'll see, either way I expect this cane will look very nice at some point tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Probably Opal, 980mb TS...not counting some that were interacting with land (like Juan 1985, 978 mb), or after landfall. Been thinking about Opal a few times in regards to that storm. That storm basically went ballistic just a few hours before landfall. I believe it got to 150mph before managing the more typical pre-landfall weakening... I think it was a 3 at landfall. Sent from my Milestone X 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Ridge to the NE of storm weakening? Or is it convection the NE weakening? Consider the effects all that convection to the NE could have... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 18z GFDL is considerably stronger near the Miss. delta: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Or is it convection the NE weakening? Consider the effects all that convection to the NE could have... Nice to see you again! I'm using knowledge from severe weather operations, but generally speaking you get a moist environment along and behind the outflow boundary. If this outflow boundary is acting to do just that, it could help us a few hours down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 finally starting to look like a real tropical cyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 latest Rainbow IR Shows what may be an eye appearing in the last frame. Still open to the north a bit but its trying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted August 28, 2012 Author Share Posted August 28, 2012 Irene made landfall at NYC as a strong TS with a pressure of 962mb Ah, doesn't count. She was weakening. Isaac is a mature tropical storm... he's been around a while and is in bath water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 You can look at the precipitable water values and see the dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 latest Rainbow IR Shows what may be an eye appearing in the last frame. Still open to the north a bit but its trying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Irene made landfall at NYC as a strong TS with a pressure of 962mb Tropical storms weakening from a major hurricane level peak often have pressures that low especially toward higher latitudes. A TS in the developing stages in the GoM with a min pressure of 981 is pretty uncommon I think ... by no means unprecedented, but still not common Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Oil platform near the mouth of the Mississippi reporting winds sustained at 53 mph and gusting to 60 mph. Pretty serious wind. Surge nearing 2 ft at Shell Beach, LA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Been watching the evolution of what looks to my enthusiast eye what seems to be a southern outflow channel that has been associated with convection over the Florida peninsula moving quickly westward toward the south of the core. Would seem that in addition to aadding additional ventilation to the storms SE, the dry air that has been being pumped in on the east side from the ULL to the SW is about to end. http://www.ssd.noaa....x/flash-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 FWIW NHC initialized 0Z models as a 60 knot TS, not a HU. AL, 09, 2012082800, , BEST, 0, 267N, 865W, 60, 981, TS, 34, NEQ, 150, 160, 100, 180, 1008, 230, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ISAAC, D, AL, 09, 2012082800, , BEST, 0, 267N, 865W, 60, 981, TS, 50, NEQ, 50, 60, 50, 40, 1008, 230, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ISAAC, D, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Center is in range of EVX long range radar now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 It does look pretty nasty at the end, but I have seen this be overzealous in developing these systems in the past. We'll see, either way I expect this cane will look very nice at some point tomorrow. Yes, which is why its key to see if its still developing a robust eye at the same period. Heres a nice dprog/dt animation of the last few model cycles. If anything, it has trended stronger as the hour selected here (05z... 1am) is moving closer and closer to real time. The overall forecast motion seems to also be slowing given that its shifted to the south and east form the initial 14 hour forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 without shear though there is no way for that dry air to intrude on Isaac. There is shear. Easterly shear. Not tons but still some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 without shear though there is no way for that dry air to intrude on Isaac. That's obviously a flawed statement because we've been dealing with dry air entrainment all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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