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Hurricane Isaac, Part 3 - Analysis and Forecasting Thread


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Western side of the storm is kinda falling apart but the eastern side is beefing up.

1) Almost looks like something resembling an inner eye has started forming

2) Looks about stalled, 12Z Euro had this onshore about 7 am CDT, perhaps this is the end of the West movement.

post-138-0-04564300-1346219808_thumb.gif

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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)

Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 06:29Z

Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)

Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2012

Storm Name: Isaac (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 32

Observation Number: 22

A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 5:56:00Z

B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28°59'N 89°56'W (28.9833N 89.9333W) (View map)

B. Center Fix Location: 69 miles (111 km) to the S (174°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.

C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,162m (3,812ft) at 850mb

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 62kts (~ 71.3mph)

E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 79 nautical miles (91 statute miles) to the NE (50°) of center fix

F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 145° at 85kts (From the SE at ~ 97.8mph)

G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 33 nautical miles (38 statute miles) to the NE (49°) of center fix

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 968mb (28.59 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)

J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,526m (5,007ft)

K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 20°C (68°F)

K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available

L. Eye Character: Not Available

M. Eye Shape: Not Available

N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature

N. Fix Level: 850mb

O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles

O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 85kts (~ 97.8mph) in the northeast quadrant at 5:45:00Z

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Okay so it looks like this thing is stalled/barely moving around N.O.

Pwat values are currently close to 3 inches (2.8) in said location with MORE than enough moisture feeding out of the Gulf. This isn't looking good so far and the 15-20 rainfall amounts may be a bit low when it comes down to it.

Edit: and those winds on radar sigs are ominous. scary stuff imo. (flood wise)

Edit 2: The NAM (which i trust at this range much more than GFS and EURO) is keeping this thing going westward until it's close to the LA/TX border.

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Issac makes second landfall:

HURRICANE ISAAC TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE...CORRECTED

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012

300 AM CDT WED AUG 29 2012

CORRECTED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE

...CENTER OF ISAAC MAKES SECOND LANDFALL...

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND NOAA RADAR

INDICATE THAT ISAAC MADE A SECOND LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF

SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA JUST WEST OF PORT FOURCHON AROUND 215 AM

CDT...0715 UTC...WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 MPH...130 KM/H.

AT 300 AM CDT...0800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAAC WAS

ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.4 WEST...OR ABOUT

35 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HOUMA LOUISIANA...AND ABOUT 60 MILES

SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA. ISAAC HAS BEGUN TO MOVE

WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND A GENERAL

NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER

TODAY.

A SUSTAINED WIND OF 49 MPH WITH A GUST TO 78 MPH WAS RECENTLY

REPORTED AT BOOTHVILLE.

SUMMARY OF 300 AM CDT...0800 UTC...INFORMATION

--------------------------------------------------

LOCATION...29.2N 90.4W

ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SSE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA

ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.61 INCHES

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SUMMARY OF 500 AM CDT...1000 UTC...INFORMATION

--------------------------------------------------

LOCATION...29.3N 90.6W

ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SSE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA

ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.61 INCHES

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MSY still 070 direction. With all that rain and winds gradually veering more east...I think that's the concern some have.

Now, if it goes east enough to put them in the western eyewall and give them a due north wind, that would be a nasty trick play. Hard to imagine a worse scenario or that it's possible.... but it is the 7th anniversary of Katrina, so I'm mildly expecting it

Sent from my Milestone X 2

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Now, if it goes east enough to put them in the western eyewall and give them a due north wind, that would be a nasty trick play. Hard to imagine a worse scenario or that it's possible.... but it is the 7th anniversary of Katrina, so I'm mildly expecting it

Sent from my Milestone X 2

The western eye wall won't hit NO...I think we can safely say that.

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SUMMARY OF 600 AM CDT...1100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...29.4N 90.5W

ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA

ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM SSW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES

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