40/70 Benchmark Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 This type of scenario was fairly well signaled. I remember conversations about a super slow/ stall etc.. main question was if it would happen before or after landfall. Prolific rains plus long duration strong winds should help kick up the wind damage a bit. Depends on whom you talk to....I referenced in 'grinding to a hault" near the coastline at one point, and my post was quickly met with the rebutal that it would not stall entirely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Makes an interesting case...When it stalled farther east an inner eye wall formed. Now the movement is crawling SW and it seems as if the eye finds the water. It almost seems as if due to a lack of steering the eye will try to find the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Is there an analog storm for this thing for that area (hugging the coast for as long as it looks like it may)? Juan '85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
p626808 Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Looks like it is moving SE now. Finishing the loop I mentioned earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 I wish more would do this. I ranted in the sne tropical thread late last week about how little autonomy mets display regarding the tropics....just spoon feeding the public TPC thoughts. 99% of the time I think this is a horrible, horrible idea for local mets to go cowboy...confusing the public, etc. And a lot really aren't qualified to do so. However where NHC has a problem is right around landfalls when they stick to a movement that isn't real in hopes the forecast movement will resume, and it's just too obvious to ignore. NHC could have at least mentioned the stall/due west movement models in the discussion, even if they were not reflected in the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 0Z GFS is somewhat astonishing... Hard to believe but it essentially keeps the eye off the southern central coast of LA through at least Wednesday afternoon, like another 12 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 It looks like it's mostly wobbling in place in super long loops. I wouldn't necessarily call any of the other motions terribly meaningful. At some point it will probably resume a motion toward land. It's one thing to ignore a 30 mile wobble 1000 miles from land. It's a totally different ballgame when the storm is pounding a major metropolitan area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Depends on whom you talk to....I referenced in 'grinding to a hault" near the coastline at one point, and my post was quickly met with the rebutal that it would not stall entirely. They usually don't and that was sort of the counter.. Same when I was part of that discussion a few days ago... I did figure it might happen after landfall at tha pt tho. But the pattern was certainly arguing for it near landfall. There are of course a number of storms that have done weird stalls/loops/etc. In that sense it's not unheard of even if odd in any one place perhaps. In the last day or so especially a lot of guidance has had this coastal strafing scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
p626808 Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Hard to tell. but looks like the eye is contracting on radar. Anyone else see this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 It's one thing to ignore a 30 mile wobble 1000 miles from land. It's a totally different ballgame when the storm is pounding a major metropolitan area. Well for a place like New Orleans I don't know if it makes much difference if the storm is where it is or a bit inland right now. Their main threat is arguably heavy rain and that's happening either way. It might make some difference in certain coastal areas and it prolongs the intensity at least a bit. But it was not forecast to rush through or anything. And despite the fact that it's remained offshore there's still no real indication it's increasing in intensity markedly or at all at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 04:45Z Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308) Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2012 Storm Name: Isaac (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 32 Observation Number: 18 A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 4:34:00Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28°53'N 90°01'W (28.8833N 90.0167W) (View map) B. Center Fix Location: 75 miles (121 km) to the S (178°) from New Orleans, LA, USA. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,160m (3,806ft) at 850mb D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 59kts (~ 67.9mph) E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 31 nautical miles (36 statute miles) to the S (173°) of center fix F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 275° at 71kts (From the W at ~ 81.7mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 29 nautical miles (33 statute miles) to the SSE/S (169°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 969mb (28.61 inHg) I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,520m (4,987ft) K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 21°C (70°F) K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character (Undecoded): Weak WSW M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 40 nautical miles (46 statute miles) N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature N. Fix Level: 850mb O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile Remarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 86kts (~ 99.0mph) in the northeast quadrant at 1:49:30Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Is there an analog storm for this thing for that area (hugging the coast for as long as it looks like it may)? Juan '85 Danny '97 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Some intense winds now off the the NE. Looks like 46 M/S which is about 100mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Well for a place like New Orleans I don't know if it makes much difference if the storm is where it is or a bit inland right now. Their main threat is arguably heavy rain and that's happening either way. It might make some difference in certain coastal areas and it prolongs the intensity at least a bit. But it was not forecast to rush through or anything. And despite the fact that it's remained offshore there's still no real indication it's increasing in intensity markedly or at all at this point. Except that, had it in fact been moving NW at 8 mph like NHC has been insisting all evening, the eye would have been inland for a number of hours and the storm would already have been starting to weaken, right? It's just not anywhere close to where they kept saying it would be, and it's been obvious for hours that NW at 8 mph wasn't close to accurate. It shouldn't matter whether it "makes a difference," it should matter if it's accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 And now they've posted it as WNW 7 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Is there an analog storm for this thing for that area (hugging the coast for as long as it looks like it may)? Easy 1950. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 I really like the Dvorak Infrared Loop really good for showing the intensity and movement... http://www.ssd.noaa....x/flash-bd.html if you look at he whole storm not just the center you really can pick up the movement.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 99% of the time I think this is a horrible, horrible idea for local mets to go cowboy...confusing the public, etc. And a lot really aren't qualified to do so. However where NHC has a problem is right around landfalls when they stick to a movement that isn't real in hopes the forecast movement will resume, and it's just too obvious to ignore. NHC could have at least mentioned the stall/due west movement models in the discussion, even if they were not reflected in the forecast. As usual, the truth lays somewhere int he middle... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 WNW at 7mph per NHC... as discussed above, some hints of W or WSW motion from radar summary of 1200 am CDT...0500 UTC...information ----------------------------------------------- location...29.0n 90.0w about 60 mi...95 km se of Houma Louisiana about 70 mi...110 km S of New Orleans Louisiana maximum sustained winds...80 mph...130 km/h present movement...WNW or 290 degrees at 7 mph...11 km/h minimum central pressure...969 mb...28.61 inches Read more at http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at201209.public.html#ijuA8PBVvikit6a7.99 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Its interesting, I was thinking the marshes are really shallow water and were probably even warmer than most of the gulf, but with the constant rain for the last 12 hours they must be cooling significantly and while they might have helped it earlier they will probably work against Issac now. Oceanic Heat Content, which takes into account DEPTH when calculating potential energy, is lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 TWC goes off the reservation: Hurricane Central @twc_hurricane Even though the "official" motion is WNW, #Isaac has been stuck at 29.0 North latitude since the 7pm advisory. https://twitter.com/twc_hurricane/status/240674358937403392 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Except that, had it in fact been moving NW at 8 mph like NHC has been insisting all evening, the eye would have been inland for a number of hours and the storm would already have been starting to weaken, right? It's just not anywhere close to where they kept saying it would be, and it's been obvious for hours that NW at 8 mph wasn't close to accurate. It shouldn't matter whether it "makes a difference," it should matter if it's accurate. I suppose. It might be weaker, a bit. It's a well developed low pressure.. it's not going to wind down too quick I don't think. Overall I think NHC has done extremely well with the storm so it's somewhat of a minor quibble at this point. If it ends up seriously changing the outcome of the forecast then it's a bigger issue maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Easy 1950. Elena 85 also crawled/looped around the northerneastern Gulf coast for 3 days. Not as close or a stall like Isaac but still a slow crawl just south of the coastline. http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1985/ELENA/track.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 WNW at 7mph per NHC... as discussed above, some hints of W or WSW motion from radar summary of 1200 am CDT...0500 UTC...information ----------------------------------------------- location...29.0n 90.0w about 60 mi...95 km se of Houma Louisiana about 70 mi...110 km S of New Orleans Louisiana maximum sustained winds...80 mph...130 km/h present movement...WNW or 290 degrees at 7 mph...11 km/h minimum central pressure...969 mb...28.61 inches Read more at http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at201209.public.html#ijuA8PBVvikit6a7.99 No way, center fix you posted is south of that F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 No way, center fix you posted is south of that F yeah not sure what's going on, here's the discrepancy: last recon center fix was 12:45 EST: 28°53'N 90°01'W 1AM EST / 12AM CDT fix NHC report: 29.0n 90.0w perhaps too subtle to make a difference, but the eye location is much less ambiguous than it was hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Doesn't look like it's moving now. Euro has that and then a general stop and start NNW over the next 5 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 If wobble watching it seems it might be a bit north again. Harder to tell for sure with the center but the eyewall on both sides has shifted north a smidge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Doesn't look like it's moving now. Euro has that and then a general stop and start NNW over the next 5 hours It's basically wobbling around while drifting west at less than 10 mph based on recon, keeping the same distance between itself and the coast. Unbelievable how it stopped right at the coast like that, on the anniversary of Katrina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 It's basically wobbling around while drifting west at less than 10 mph based on recon, keeping the same distance between itself and the coast. Unbelievable how it stopped right at the coast like that, on the anniversary of Katrina. Just saying,but most reliable models showed this, didn't they? Where he goes from here will be interesting.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 LOPL is reporting a 968 pressure with 10 knot winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.