CoastalWx Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Agree.. It's not like it's a tiny burgeoning system eating up massively warm and relatively untouched water at this point. Best case seems like a slow deepening until the center is totally over land but I'm not as sold as others that it sitting that close to the shore doesn't matter at all. I guess a wildcard might be if it keeps going west past that little southern jutting section of southern LA but even then I wouldn't expect a ton? I'll give the storm credit for making things "fun" in the end. Cool ending to it like you said. The last 6 hrs or so have been interesting from a met standpoint as far as presentation and movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 it probably will wobble a bit n in the next few hours as that slug of convection on the north side rotates west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 We'll here in Houston, Dr Neil Frank seems to think this will remain a Coastal Hugger. He said he doesn't see a NW or NNW motion tonight at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Latest steering map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 We'll here in Houston, Dr Neil Frank seems to think this will remain a Coastal Hugger. He said he doesn't see a NW or NNW motion tonight at all. 0z GFS thinks the same....roughly hugging the coast until noon tomorrow...then a more poleward motion begins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 TWC Guy desperately trying to restrain himself from explicitly contradicting NHC regarding the movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Anyone surprised the NHC didn't extend hurricane warnings west? If westerly/coastal hugger trend continues some pretty nasty conditions are going to get past Morgan City. Normally the NHC issues huge swaths of warnings well beyond where hurricane force winds actually occur. Seems to me they're cutting it much closer than usual in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RGweathergeek Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 We'll here in Houston, Dr Neil Frank seems to think this will remain a Coastal Hugger. He said he doesn't see a NW or NNW motion tonight at all. I saw that on Ch. 11 at 10... one of the hydrological maps, that was posted on here, was showing 2-4 inches of rain here in SE Texas over 120 hrs. It will be interesting to see what happens here in Houston if this storm keeps drifting west. Wonder if we will see a TS watch further southwest of High Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 strengthening storms always surprise people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
p626808 Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Looks like it is doing a loop on radar.. heading SW now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Anyone surprised the NHC didn't extend hurricane warnings west? If westerly/coastal hugger trend continues some pretty nasty conditions are going to get past Morgan City. Normally the NHC issues huge swaths of warnings well beyond where hurricane force winds actually occur. Seems to me they're cutting it much closer than usual in this case. I don't think they want a 200 mile cone of uncertainty on a three hour forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Origin is so different, but the endgame is Alicia-esque. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Looks like it's drifting almost due south now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 The northwestern edge of the eye has done quite a job over the past few hours of moving directly along the coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Is there an analog storm for this thing for that area (hugging the coast for as long as it looks like it may)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Is there an analog storm for this thing for that area (hugging the coast for as long as it looks like it may)? There was a hurricane that did this off NC back in the mid 90s, maybe Felix? But I don't think it was quite this close, I don't remember a gulf one doing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Fascinating. Issac has been an enigma throughout the duration of its life....refusing to intensify when it should have, and move inland when it should have.....defiant SOB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Looks like a lot of people in SLA got caught with their pants down. Many local officials are saying they are very surprised by the intensity of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 There was a hurricane that did this off NC back in the mid 90s, maybe Felix? But I don't think it was quite this close, I don't remember a gulf one doing it. Felix didn't hug the immediate coastline like that....I remember it vividly because it was back when I had no life and watched these non-stop. It came abeam of Hatteras, stalled....then drifted offshore.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 This is quite impressive really... storm pretty much came to a halt exactly at the coast and is just sitting there scraping it on a westward crawl. Radar-wise looking better than it did all day. Eye entirely over water almost the entire time. The 12Z Euro depiction has done well it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeauDodson Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Some of the local forecasters are now abandoning what the NHC is saying and going with what they are seeing - the storm is not moving NW. Some of them are changing their own forecasts based on what they are seeing on satellite/radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Fascinating. Issac has been an enigma throughout the duration of its life....refusing to intensify when it should have, and move inland when it should have.....defiant SOB. This type of scenario was fairly well signaled. I remember conversations about a super slow/ stall etc.. main question was if it would happen before or after landfall. Prolific rains plus long duration strong winds should help kick up the wind damage a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Velocities are picking up on the NE side quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Storm is definitely not moving NW... Looks like a really decent SW crawl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Some of the local forecasters are now abandoning what the NHC is saying and going with what they are seeing - the storm is not moving NW. Some of them are changing their own forecasts based on what they are seeing on satellite/radar. I wish more would do this. I ranted in the sne tropical thread late last week about how little autonomy mets display regarding the tropics....just spoon feeding the public TPC thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 WGNO met just bailed on the NHC. Said, "They keep saying it is moving NW but I know what I see. It has been moving west with even a bit if a southerly trend for the past 2 hours. If it had been moving NW it would already be onshore." He then went on to say what the west move meant to the ares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 WGNO met just bailed on the NHC. Said, "They keep saying it is moving NW but I know what I see. It has been moving west with even a bit if a southerly trend for the past 2 hours. If it had been moving NW it would already be onshore." He then went on to say what the west move meant to the ares. It looks like it's mostly wobbling in place in super long loops. I wouldn't necessarily call any of the other motions terribly meaningful. At some point it will probably resume a motion toward land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RGweathergeek Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Some of the local forecasters are now abandoning what the NHC is saying and going with what they are seeing - the storm is not moving NW. Some of them are changing their own forecasts based on what they are seeing on satellite/radar. WGNO is going with the storm moving west for last 2 hours and confusion why the NHC is still saying it is going NW. WDSU is calling for it to make final landfall near Houma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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