Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Note as it finally swung the convection to the SE earlier today the dry air to the north in the mid levels was mitigated. Great visual on the beginning of the process that finally let this happen. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/imagery/wv-animated.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 What the hell... you could see it poorly aligned on the portal page but i was zoomed into that spot and it came up on refresh. looks like it's resolved now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 015500 2953N 08850W 8427 01454 9966 +170 +170 127069 073 079 007 05 015530 2954N 08849W 8427 01461 9967 +170 +170 125066 068 079 006 05 unflagged 79kt SFMR 90 at 11pm?? Edit: Probably more for the banter thread.....but the overall presentation has improved dramatically and coupled with the other obs, would think 90mph is not out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 015500 2953N 08850W 8427 01454 9966 +170 +170 127069 073 079 007 05 015530 2954N 08849W 8427 01461 9967 +170 +170 125066 068 079 006 05 unflagged 79kt SFMR It was over land. SFMR isn't accurate over land and the FL winds don't match up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 015500 2953N 08850W 8427 01454 9966 +170 +170 127069 073 079 007 05 015530 2954N 08849W 8427 01461 9967 +170 +170 125066 068 079 006 05 unflagged 79kt SFMR Pardon my ignorance, but what does unflagged mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 VoldeModel That Shall Not Be Named is slow due west movement for next 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Pardon my ignorance, but what does unflagged mean? Just meaning it lacks a 'flagging' that indicates it may be erroneous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=LIX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=29.60736084&lon=-90.78240204&label=Houma,%20LA&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Pardon my ignorance, but what does unflagged mean? Generally when its flagged, it means it could be in error or less reliable. But this one wasn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 BUOY/CMAN obs are starting to show that we have a very defined eye about to close off. Considering that the marsh and swamp areas have been claimed by the GOM, this could strengthen further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Lightning has increased again NE of the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 http://www.wundergro...f=9999&smooth=0 Looks like that SE quad of the eyewall is trying to close off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Just meaning it lacks a 'flagging' that indicates it may be erroneous. Generally when its flagged, it means it could be in error or less reliable. But this one wasn't. Thanks! Not surprising given a contracting eye wall in a very low pressure storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 ton of water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Impressive system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaPilot Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 All this thing has to do at this point is jog north a bit for a few hours and it will be a perfect set up for funneling water into the lake. Going to be a very long night for those folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Interesting to see the NAM continuing to show a slow W/SW drift continuing through around 18z Thursday with a final landfall west of the TX/LA border... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Still 80 MPH Cane at 11pm advisory! HURRICANE ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012 0300 UTC WED AUG 29 2012 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM WEST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA TO SABINE PASS TEXAS HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER... INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INTRACOASTAL CITY TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA * MORGAN CITY TO SABINE PASS TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO JUST WEST OF SABINE PASS HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 89.7W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT.......160NE 150SE 150SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 270SE 210SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 89.7W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 89.5W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 It's really an interesting system because the steering flow is weak which is seemingly allowing other forces to govern the storm motion. Friction, convection screwing around with the storm causing it to wobble like an unbalanced washer machine...etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 it looks nice but it's not doing much other than looking nicer. The increase in winds often lags an improvement in structure. Also, it's doing something: dumping rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 I'm not certain that I agree with the last two NHC advisories describing motion as NW at 8mph. Six hours of that motion is approx 25 miles further north, and we all know Isaac has not gained latitude in that time span according to the HH's and radar. It's apparent from radar that it is moving west with occasional wobbles south and north. Why is the NHC shy about calling it a west motion or a near stall, or am I hallucinating?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 MW image from around landfall near the Mississippi delta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 The increase in winds often lags an improvement in structure. Also, it's doing something: dumping rain. Well, yes.. that's a given. Given that it's so large it has a big area of the circulation over land.. it would seem odd if that has no impact on its further ability to strengthen. I think its radar appearance can improve without it necessarily strengthening much. It seems to be more or less holding its own right now. Perhaps winds will bump a smidge still... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Well, yes.. that's a given. Given that it's so large it has a sizable part of the circulation over land.. it would seem odd if that has no impact on its further ability to strengthen. I think its radar appearance can improve without it necessarily strengthening much. It seems to be more or less holding its own right now. Perhaps winds will bump a smidge still... I may be wrong, but it's probably close to its "peak," unless it moves SW..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 I may be wrong, but it's probably close to its "peak," unless it moves SW..lol. Agree.. It's not like it's a tiny burgeoning system eating up massively warm and relatively untouched water at this point. Best case seems like a slow deepening until the center is totally over land but I'm not as sold as others that it sitting that close to the shore doesn't matter at all. I guess a wildcard might be if it keeps going west past that little southern jutting section of southern LA but even then I wouldn't expect a ton? I'll give the storm credit for making things "fun" in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 I'm not certain that I agree with the last two NHC advisories describing motion as NW at 8mph. Six hours of that motion is approx 25 miles further north, and we all know Isaac has not gained latitude in that time span according to the HH's and radar. It's apparent from radar that it is moving west with occasional wobbles south and north. Why is the NHC shy about calling it a west motion or a near stall, or am I hallucinating?? 1) The maintain continuity of motion over time so they don't capture wobbles. However, I'm utterly baffled by Brown saying "A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION HAS RECENTLY RESUMED." 2) I am very careful when criticizing NHC, but they have a persistent bias towards being very late to recognize stalls or storms doing anything "weird" even when that motion has been captured by multiple models. The worst example I can remember was Dennis in 1999 - It hit North Carolina, then circled back and came back and hit North Carolina again. Even given the much more primitive modeling then, several models actually forecast that motion. However, the discussions after the first landfall were short and perfunctory, and the track forecast was a routine recurvature. Floyd was going on at the time and it almost seemed like they were distracted. They're going to stick to the idea of 5-7 kts NW movement for a loooong time - the next advisory will probably say something like "Isaac has temporarily stalled, but is expected to resume slow NW movement." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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