SunnyFL Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 It was just being reissued, the new watch is up now. The new watch was issued 45-50 mins before his newscast. He gave the "all clear" saying the watch had expired. Not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Relevant high tide times, most appear to be in the morning: (source http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/quicklook/data/ISAAC.html#8762372wl) Pilots Station East, SW Pass, LA: Next predicted high tides are 1.5 ft (0.47 m) at 08/29/2012 08:34 CDT and 1.4 ft (0.43 m) at 08/30/2012 09:26 CDT. Grand Isle, LA: Next predicted high tides are 1.4 ft (0.41 m) at 08/29/2012 09:17 CDT and 1.2 ft (0.38 m) at 08/30/2012 10:21 CDT. East Bank 1, Norco, B. LaBranche, LA: Next predicted high tides are 0.4 ft (0.13 m) at 08/28/2012 18:12 CDT and 0.4 ft (0.13 m) at 08/29/2012 18:43 CDT. LAWMA, Amerada Pass, LA: Next predicted high tides are 1.4 ft (0.43 m) at 08/29/2012 04:05 CDT and 1.3 ft (0.40 m) at 08/29/2012 14:24 CDT. Freshwater Canal Locks, LA: Next predicted high tides are 2.1 ft (0.64 m) at 08/29/2012 02:53 CDT and 1.8 ft (0.56 m) at 08/29/2012 12:20 CDT. Shell Beach, LA: Next predicted high tides are 1.3 ft (0.41 m) at 08/29/2012 12:45 CDT and 1.2 ft (0.37 m) at 08/30/2012 14:26 CDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueheronNC Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 I wonder if the SFMR is even working right, it's seemed way too low this whole storm and 110 mph flight level would suggest 95-100 mph in convection, not 65 mph! Winds sustained at 82 mph at mississippi canyon oil platform near where they're doing SFMR measurements (though it is fairly elevated). I don't like how the NHC is giving SFMR precedent over all our other obs. I just wonder if the viscosity of the brackish/marshy/nutrient-rich waters alters the ripple waveforms/seafoam on its surface that the SFMR uses to determine windspeed, and thus is lowballed by the SFMR when it scans the ocean surface... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 00Z Observations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RGweathergeek Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 No recent recon fix yet, but radar suggests its wobbling to the SW. WDSU was stating that the radar is showing a westward jog, should be interesting to see what happens. Fox 8's in-house model was showing the storm scraping along the coast before making its final landfall just west of Houma early tomorrow morning. (Love being able to watch local NO coverage on DirectTV.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJDEVIL Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Based upon radar, the eye appears to be contracting again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Whoops... KNEW 290053Z 03041G52KT 3/4SM -SN BKN024 BKN028 OVC035 A2940 RMK AO2 PK WND 03057/0006 SNB17 SLP951 P0025 FZRANO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 967 drop into eye...9kts at splash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Take ground reports here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Why are splitting everything into three+ threads? That makes it nearly impossible to keep up with things in real time. I dunno but we started it that way so we'll finish it that way. I think general wind reports are fine here but the longer term impact stuff like flooding, reports on the levees, etc should probably go in the other thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Isaac looks quite impressive on radar right now. The appearance continues to improve IMO. If anything the center has been drifting south a bit over the last hour which will maximize its time over water. With cold cloud tops/intense convection continuing to wraparound the center (inner eyewall) we could see this thing continue to intensify for many more hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Just keeps looking better and better, this is quite the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJDEVIL Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 This is becoming more and more organized by the minute and IMO we are probably less than 6 hours away from having a well established inner core with convection completley wrapped around. Should that happen, I would expect surface winds to pick up dramatically before landfall, the whole package has an errie feeling to it IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Isaac looks quite impressive on radar right now. The appearance continues to improve IMO. If anything the center has been drifting south a bit over the last hour which will maximize its time over water. With cold cloud tops/intense convection continuing to wraparound the center (inner eyewall) we could see this thing continue to intensify for many more hours. Recon confirms, latest set of observations looks to put the center at roughly 28.75N, when it was up to 29.0N not too long ago 012500 2848N 08936W 8431 01225 9684 +217 +210 119013 020 014 002 00 012530 2846N 08936W 8422 01227 9678 +220 +212 158008 010 008 001 00 012600 2845N 08937W 8431 01218 9676 +220 +214 233005 007 003 004 00 012630 2844N 08938W 8429 01221 9679 +210 +210 286010 013 008 003 01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 This is becoming more and more organized by the minute and IMO we are probably less than 6 hours away from having a well established inner core with convection completley wrapped around. Should that happen, I would expect surface winds to pick up dramatically before landfall, the whole package has an errie feeling to it IMO. Recon says it's drifted 20 miles further from land since the last pass, this is going to be over water for a long time. ~65 miles from the true coastline now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Isaac looks quite impressive on radar right now. The appearance continues to improve IMO. If anything the center has been drifting south a bit over the last hour which will maximize its time over water. With cold cloud tops/intense convection continuing to wraparound the center (inner eyewall) we could see this thing continue to intensify for many more hours. This drifting west is giving it more time over the fuel. Certainly won't weaken anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Seems like it's almost stalled or ever so slightly moving NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 This is becoming more and more organized by the minute and IMO we are probably less than 6 hours away from having a well established inner core with convection completley wrapped around. Should that happen, I would expect surface winds to pick up dramatically before landfall, the whole package has an errie feeling to it IMO. Agreed. You can clearly see the eye contracting on radar, and combining that with the fact it is drifting further away from the coast, there is a chance that this could strengthen before finally moving on shore. Given the flight level winds that have been observed, I would imagine if this thing wraps up and does develop a true core, you could see a very rapid increase from an 80 MPH cat 1 to a 100 MPH cat 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 This drifting west is giving it more time over the fuel. Certainly won't weaken anytime soon. The storm does appear to be tightening so I assume the RMW will continue to contract. With the storm drifting W/SW right now barring some type of loop with an easterly component (which is very unlikely) or a dramatic rush to the north (unlikely too) New Orleans is not going to see particularly strong winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 This drifting west is giving it more time over the fuel. Certainly won't weaken anytime soon. Seeing the IR loop shows a new area (last 30 minutes) of enhancement in one of the middle bands SE of the COC....by my estimation this should arrive in the NO area over the next couple of hours.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Seems like it's almost stalled or ever so slightly moving NW. Recon has confirmed that this has shifted to the south over the last few hours or so from 29 N to 28.75 N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 The storm does appear to be tightening so I assume the RMW will continue to contract. With the storm drifting W/SW right now barring some type of loop with an easterly component (which is very unlikely) or a dramatic rush to the north (unlikely too) New Orleans is not going to see particularly strong winds. Those really strong winds look like they are located in that band to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Several 105 knot pixels showing up SW of LIX around 6,600 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 That's a good improvement on radar from even two hours ago. Probably a few factors at play here. Seems like it continues to try and strengthen a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 That's a good improvement on radar from even two hours ago. Probably a few factors at play here. Seems like it continues to try and strengthen a bit. Friction from land and warmer intercostal water? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Friction from land and warmer intercostal water? The upper levels are venting too. I don't think it's gonna strengthen a whole lot..but I wouldn't be shocked if the winds get a small boost. TCs can do weird things though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 I concur with Coastal on this. Winds just above the surface are screaming at 90-100 mph With the eye really wrapping up, there is an outside chance those could mix down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 This was just posted by Patrick Marsh with the University of Oklahoma SMART-R in SE LA. "Here is a vertical cross section of velocity taken from OU SMART-R #1 (Houman airport): Strongest core of winds lowering; ~100 meters AGL now. https://twitpic.com/aorkry/full " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gulfcane Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 015500 2953N 08850W 8427 01454 9966 +170 +170 127069 073 079 007 05 015530 2954N 08849W 8427 01461 9967 +170 +170 125066 068 079 006 05 unflagged 79kt SFMR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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