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Hurricane Isaac, Part 3 - Analysis and Forecasting Thread


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When Nikolai is excited, something is going down lol! :snowing:

:)

Radar shows the inner eyewall feature becoming slightly better defined, and I think that should improve as the bulk of the convection continues rotating around to the N side of the storm... bad timing for New Orleans.

Here's a link to the surge maps.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/LAMSALSurge.asp

As you can see (click the ones for NOLA), if Isaac's surge is indeed of a Cat 2 strength (or even Cat 1), he has another 50-100 miles of 'open' water with the surge. Not deep, but enough to at least maintain strength.

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Definitely looks to be heading almost due north on radar the past hour.

Yes it does looks like 350' NNW to me by this radar http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/ right now doing the same thing alot of storms like to do kick right upon arrival to land.i wondered earlier today if this may occur Katrina did it at the same spot.

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I would disagree with that assessment.

http://www.ndbc.noaa...&time_label=CDT

Data from the above station shows a pronounced drop after the outer eyewall passed, with the 'inner' eyewall ramping things up considerably. Latest gusts in excess of 100 miles per hour.

Use these wind measurements with caution. There is a remark in their obs.

KMIS 282255Z 17036G79KT M1/4SM FG OVC004 27/26 A2893 RMK A01 WIND DATA UNRELIABLE

KMIS 282235Z 16058G84KT M1/4SM FG BKN004 BKN008 BKN021 26/25 A2892 RMK A01 WIND DATA UNRELIABLE

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Use these wind measurements with caution. There is a remark in their obs.

KMIS 282255Z 17036G79KT M1/4SM FG OVC004 27/26 A2893 RMK A01 WIND DATA UNRELIABLE

KMIS 282235Z 16058G84KT M1/4SM FG BKN004 BKN008 BKN021 26/25 A2892 RMK A01 WIND DATA UNRELIABLE

nobody seems to be able to answer why that's there. is it because it's so high off the ground or because it's faulty?

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While David's taking a break... ^_^

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)

Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 22:54Z

Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.

Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)

Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2012

Storm Name: Isaac (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 32

Observation Number: 02

A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 22:25:50Z

B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28°52'N 89°07'W (28.8667N 89.1167W) (View map)

B. Center Fix Location: 95 miles (153 km) to the SE (143°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.

C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,178m (3,865ft) at 850mb

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 61kts (~ 70.2mph)

E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 56 nautical miles (64 statute miles) to the WSW (237°) of center fix

F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 325° at 84kts (From the NW at ~ 96.7mph)

G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 59 nautical miles (68 statute miles) to the WSW (238°) of center fix

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 970mb (28.64 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,532m (5,026ft)

J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)

K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)

K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available

L. Eye Character (Undecoded): SPIRAL BAND

M. Eye Shape: Not Available

N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature

N. Fix Level: 850mb

O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles

O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 84kts (~ 96.7mph) in the southwest quadrant at 22:07:00Z

Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 94kts (~ 108.2mph) in the northeast quadrant at 22:48:10Z

Maximum Flight Level Temp: 22°C (72°F) which was observed 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles) to the SW (233°) from the flight level center

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Updated discussion

https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201208282302-KLCH-FXUS64-AFDLCH

...HURRICANE ISAAC NEARING THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST...

.DISCUSSION...

ISAAC HAS GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND IT STRENGTHENED A

BIT EARLIER TODAY...BUT IT CONTINUES TO BATTLE SURROUNDING

ENVIRONMENTAL DRY AIR...WHICH WAS QUITE EVIDENT ON THE 12Z KLCH

RAOB. THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE CYCLONE INLAND OVER SOUTHEAST

LOUISIANA NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER AROUND MIDNIGHT

TONIGHT...THEN CONTINUES A RATHER SLOW NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST

MOTION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

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Lake Pontchartrain fully up to the levee in New Orleans now.

It's up to the base of the levee, not the top. The levee is the green band running between the flooded parking lot and the buildings you see on the far right. It rises several feet above still.

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nobody seems to be able to answer why that's there. is it because it's so high off the ground or because it's faulty?

I am not exactly sure. The only thing I see on the NDBC site is that it states "Data from this station are not quality controlled by NDBC". Probably that, and also the wind measurements are nearly 300 feet above the site elevation.

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Center on radar seems to have turned west if not west south west. If this stays offshore it might be a long night.

As Ian mentioned earlier, short term trends should not be representative of the overall motion, and slight wobbles are very typical of a Tropical Cyclone. What should be interesting though is if this wobble turns into a trend.

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