Kaner587 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 971 dropsonde in the eye...continues to strenghten Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Question: Plaquemines Parish is basically within 1-2 feet of sea level. If Isaac does drift over Plaqeuemines, couldn't it still strengthen given the entire thing is probably part of the Gulf of Mexico at the moment? Like Andrew and the Everglades, but actually worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Dropsonde splashed at 971mb Seems to be strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 The SAT has the appearance of RI. Only question is just the time over water. Pretty amazing few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC) Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 22:21Z Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF) Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2012 Storm Name: Isaac (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 33 Observation Number: 09 A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 21:59:55Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28°46'N 89°03'W (28.7667N 89.05W) B. Center Fix Location: 103 miles (166 km) to the SE (144°) from New Orleans, LA, USA. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,917m (9,570ft) at 700mb D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: Not Available E. Bearing & Range from Center of Estimated Maximum Surface Wind (Undecoded):301 deg 1 nm F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 83° at 80kts (From the E at ~ 92.1mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 45 nautical miles (52 statute miles) to the NNW (343°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 971mb (28.67 inHg) I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,061m (10,043ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,066m (10,059ft) K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 13°C (55°F) K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character: Open in the southwest M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 40 nautical miles (46 statute miles) N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature N. Fix Level: 700mb O. Fix Determined By / Fix Level (Undecoded): 1 / 1 nm Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded... Maximum Flight Level Temp: 17°C (63°F) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the NE/ENE (56°) from the flight level center Remarks Section - Additional Remarks... MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND AND MAX FL WIND 91 KT NE QUAD 22:10:20Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 The SAT has the appearance of RI. Only question is just the time over water. Pretty amazing few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Definitely looks to be heading almost due north on radar the past hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 new drop shows 98kts (113mph) at 944mb. Otherwise only 60kts at the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 The SAT has the appearance of RI. Only question is just the time over water. Pretty amazing few hours. I don't really agree it has the appearance of RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Towers going up around the inner eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 new drop shows 98kts (113mph) at 944mb. Otherwise only 60kts at the surface gr2 radar out of new oreleans has 95-99 kts in the ne quadrant of issac at 10k ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 The problem with Isaac is not necessarily it getting intense quickly..but the location and direction of approach. You don't really want it to move NW and pass just SW of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaPilot Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 In those two sat shots above CDO seems to have improved noticeably in the 3 hours or so between them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Fifty five thousand foot tall top in the southern eyewall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 18z GFS still insists on taking Isaac due west for 30 hours, considering continued movement at present I think we can discount that possibility. Even seems to be a bit East of forecast at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 I don't really agree it has the appearance of RI. You're certainly entitled to disagree . I don't see a 40mb drop in 24 hours, but I don't think the Euro's pressure forecast is out of the question either of 950-960mb. It all depends on which way it drifts/etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 since we discussed this for Tropical Storms... anyone know the record low central pressure for a strengthening hurricane that is only Cat 1? currently 971 mb, Euro had this going sub-960 by tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 FWIW The Gustav surge at Shell Beach was 9.5 ft; looks like this will be easily beaten. Surge suddenly started dropping at the station on Lake Ponchartrain, though - not sure why. Figured out the answer I think, that gauge is likely in the London ave canal since 2.5 ft is the "safe point" according to local officials. They closed off the gates between the canal and the lake and keep pumping water out whenever it reaches 2.5 ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 You're certainly entitled to disagree . I don't see a 40mb drop in 24 hours, but I don't think the Euro's pressure forecast is out of the question either of 950-960mb. It all depends on which way it drifts/etc. Agreed. Also of note is that the highest OHC on the Gulf Coast is where Isaac currently is positioned. Can't be a bad thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 My best estimate looking at radar is that the inner "eyewall" (or whatever it is) will pass over or just east of Boothville, and perhaps slightly east of Hopedale thereafter. There's really not much along that path - just some marshland and various deltas branching off from the Mississippi river. If Isaac continues along a straight line, that would put it somewhere near or just east of Slidell, but I suspect we see a slight jog to the west before then. In either case, many more hours of easterly winds blowing right into Borgne and Pontchartrain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 You're certainly entitled to disagree . I don't see a 40mb drop in 24 hours, but I don't think the Euro's pressure forecast is out of the question either of 950-960mb. It all depends on which way it drifts/etc. It's certainly improved no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 My best estimate looking at radar is that the inner "eyewall" (or whatever it is) will pass over or just east of Boothville, and perhaps slightly east of Hopedale thereafter. There's really not much along that path - just some marshland and various deltas branching off from the Mississippi river. If Isaac continues along a straight line, that would put it somewhere near or just east of Slidell, but I suspect we see a slight jog to the west before then. In either case, many more hours of easterly winds blowing right into Borgne and Pontchartrain. And many hours of potential strengthening as that is all warm marshland and brackish lake region. The idea that Plaquemines Parish, most of which is likely part of the Gulf of Mexico right now, is going to halt the intensification trend is laughable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 USAF just found the center to be underneath the 55kft tower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 While the inner ring of convection appears to be an eyewall structurally, radial velocities (and I believe the latest HH flight as well) are still showing stronger winds in the outer eyewall. Seems to be a case of "too little too late" with too much radial enthalpy flux being robbed and angular momentum confined to the much larger, outer eyewall. edit to add: Maybe I spoke too soon. Superstorms93's post suggests that the inner eyewall is ramping up quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 18z GFS still insists on taking Isaac due west for 30 hours, considering continued movement at present I think we can discount that possibility. Even seems to be a bit East of forecast at the moment. considering that the 18z GFS has some support from other models including the Euro, I don't discount anything at this point, including a west drift. The movement north could just be from the inner core consolidating and wobbling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 While the inner ring of convection appears to be an eyewall structurally, radial velocities (and I believe the latest HH flight as well) are still showing stronger winds in the outer eyewall. Seems to be a case of "too little too late" with too much radial enthalpy flux being robbed and angular momentum confined to the much larger, outer eyewall. I would disagree with that assessment. http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=kmis&meas=wdpr&uom=E&time_diff=-5&time_label=CDT Data from the above station shows a pronounced drop after the outer eyewall passed, with the 'inner' eyewall ramping things up considerably. Latest gusts in excess of 100 miles per hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 I would disagree with that assessment. http://www.ndbc.noaa...&time_label=CDT Data from the above station shows a pronounced drop after the outer eyewall passed, with the 'inner' eyewall ramping things up considerably. Latest gusts in excess of 100 miles per hour. Yup, see my edit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 On the movement front...todays large mature southern band has finally swung around to the northeast and might have aided in some of the additional northern component...now that we have a new band pushing back southwest, movement might level out more westward again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 I would disagree with that assessment. http://www.ndbc.noaa...&time_label=CDT Data from the above station shows a pronounced drop after the outer eyewall passed, with the 'inner' eyewall ramping things up considerably. Latest gusts in excess of 100 miles per hour. I know for a fact that station isn't anywhere near the inner eyewall feature, it's still in the outer eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 USAF just found the center to be underneath the 55kft tower for reference purposes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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